医药行业周报：持续关注Q2业绩预期-摩熵咨询

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　　投资要点

　　行情回顾：[Table_Summary]本周医药生物指数下跌1.47%，跑赢沪深300指数0.01个百分点，行业涨跌幅排名第5位。2026年初以来至今，医药行业下跌14.11%，跑输沪深300指数19.26个百分点，行业涨跌幅排名第20位。本周医药行业估值水平(PE-TTM)为26.37倍，相对全部A股溢价率40.64%(3.82pp)，相对剔除银行后全部A股溢价率为4.44%(1.65pp)，相对沪深300溢价率为93.19%(7.01pp)。年初以来表现最好的前三板块分别是医疗研发外包、原料药和医疗耗材，涨跌幅分别为16.4%、-8.2%和-10%。

　　创新药板块处于估值底部，利好频频，有望底部反转。研发端，6月22日，百利天恒的注射用伦康依隆妥单抗获批上市，获批适应症为既往经至少二线系统化疗和PD-1/PD-L1抑制剂治疗失败的复发/转移性鼻咽癌成人患者。注射用伦康依隆妥单抗是全球首款正式获批上市双抗ADC，标志着我国在ADC创新赛道实现从“跟跑、并跑”到“全球领跑”的历史性跨越；6月15日，泽璟制药的盐酸吉卡昔替尼片用于治疗成人重度斑秃的上市申请获得批准。这是继用于治疗中、高危骨髓纤维化的适应症获批后，盐酸吉卡昔替尼片第二个获批上市的适应症。BD端，6月23日早间，海思科将两款自研小分子药物HSK42360和HSK39297的海外权益授权给美国NuvectisPharma，总交易金额最高达14.61亿美元。我们认为，尽管近期创新药板块受行业合规整顿等因素影响，但业绩底、估值底已逐步夯实，市场系统性大跌风险已显著收敛。随着国产创新药在全球产业中的参与度持续提升，凭借效率优势，未来有望看到更多国产创新药在早期研发阶段实现对欧美药企的追赶甚至反超。放眼2026Q3，ESMO大会有望于9月底至10月初召开，建议关注重磅数据催化企业。

　　医疗器械高值耗材受益于集采影响出清与创新产品催化，低值耗材受益于出口价格回升和海外产能投放，医疗设备受制于Q2招标偏弱但龙头仍可凭新品与海外拓张带来稳健增长，IVD则在低基数及检验量企稳的背景下较Q1预计有所改善，但价格压力尚未完全结束。医疗设备方面，26Q2预计相对谨慎。行业层面，2025年设备招投标明显改善，但进入2026Q1后，在高基数和淡季影响下，公开招投标金额同比下降14.4%，其中影像、内镜、超声等细分领域均承压。预计行业需求仍在恢复通道中，但短期招标节奏偏弱，报表端改善继续依赖库存出清、收入确认节奏和海外市场增长。

　　CXO板块2025至今盈利能力大幅改善，主要由收入增长下规模效应放大、部分产能利用率提升、部分赛道/细分市场价格竞争逐渐触底等因素综合导致。Q2我们维持对CXO外需提速和内需兑现双轮驱动的高景气判断：一方面，CDMO在26Q1在人民币升值等不利背景下仍体现韧性。另一方面，内需端受BD出海和融资回暖共同推动，成为临床前/临床CRO订单高增的直接来源。外部变量方面，美国1260H清单实质影响有限、短期利空出尽，三星生物罢工引发全球生物药CDMO供应链分散化诉求上升，有望带来订单结构性转移与中期份额机会。

　　原料药板块价格周期与汇兑扰动仍是Q2主变量，整体利润修复斜率偏温和。展望Q2，我们关注两条更具把握的结构线索：1）具备原料药CDMO属性或承接新分子的企业在全球产业链再平衡中受益，订单与毛利的修复能力更为突出；2）其二，出海能力优、合规与认证强、成本曲线性感的头部公司有望率先走出底部。综上，Q2原料药板块有望看见结构性修复。

　　A股组合：华康洁净（301235）、美好医疗（301363）、恒瑞医药（600276）、首药控股-U（688197）、长春高新（000661）、华东医药（000963）、康辰药业（603590）、康龙化成（300759）、通化东宝（600867）。

　　港股组合：中国生物制药（1177）、信达生物（1801）、康方生物（9926）、科伦博泰生物（6990）、和黄医药（0013）、劲方医药（2595）、先声药业（2096）、云顶新耀（1952）、英矽智能（3696）。

　　风险提示：医药行业政策不确定性超预期风险；研发进展不及预期风险；业绩不及预期风险。

Central Takeaway

Market Performance and Sectoral Investment Opportunities

The pharmaceutical and biotech index declined 1.47% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 by 0.01 percentage points, ranking 5th among all industries. Year-to-date, the sector has dropped 14.11%, significantly underperforming the CSI 300 by 19.26 percentage points, ranking 20th.
The sector's valuation (PE-TTM) stands at 26.37x, with a premium of 40.64% over the broader A-share market (a 3.82pp increase week-over-week), indicating elevated expectations relative to the broader market.
Key investment themes center on the bottoming-out of the innovative drug sector, structural improvements in CXO driven by dual external and internal demand, selective opportunities in medical devices following procurement normalization, and a moderate recovery in raw materials.
Sub-sector performance diverges sharply: Medical R&D outsourcing leads year-to-date with a 16.4% gain, while other sub-sectors like traditional Chinese medicine and vaccines have declined significantly, highlighting the market's focus on innovation-driven growth and export-oriented segments.

Main Content

Data-Driven Analysis of Key Sub-sectors and Capital Market Dynamics

Investment Strategy and Sectoral Deep-Dive

The report's investment strategy is underpinned by statistical evidence and a clear thesis for Q2 2026. The innovative drug sector is at a valuation and performance trough, with tangible catalysts emerging.

Innovative Drugs: The sector is deemed at a bottom with both performance and valuation floors established. Key approvals include Blincyto (the world's first bispecific ADC) for nasopharyngeal carcinoma and Haijing's drug for severe alopecia areata. Major BD deals, like Haisco's $1.461 billion out-licensing of two small molecules to Nuvectis Pharma, signal growing global participation. The report notes that despite compliance headwinds, the risk of a systemic sell-off has converged, and the upcoming ESMO conference (Sept-Oct 2026) is a catalyst for heavy data-rich companies.
Medical Devices: The sector shows bifurcated dynamics. High-value consumables benefit from clearing procurement headwinds and innovation catalysts. Low-value consumables are aided by export price recovery and overseas capacity deployment. However, medical equipment faces near-term headwinds: public bidding volumes in Q1 2026 fell 14.4% YoY due to high base effects and a slow season, particularly impacting imaging, endoscopy, and ultrasound. The report sees a cautious Q2 but expects a long-term recovery supported by inventory clearing and overseas growth.
CXO: Profitability has dramatically improved since 2025 due to scale effects, capacity utilization gains, and bottoming price competition in certain segments. Q2 is characterized by a dual-engine of external demand (CDMO resilience despite RMB appreciation, with double-digit growth guidance and capex expansion) and internal demand (CRO order surge from BD and financing recovery). External variables like the limited impact of the 1260H list and the Samsung Biologics strike creating diversification in global supply chains present medium-term share gain opportunities.
Raw Materials: The recovery is moderate, with price cycles and exchange rate fluctuations as key variables. The report identifies two structural clues for Q2: companies with CDMO attributes or new molecule pipelines benefiting from global rebalancing, and leading companies with strong export capabilities, compliance, and cost curves likely to exit the bottom first.

A-Share and Hong Kong Stock Portfolio Performance

A-Share Portfolio: The weekly weighted average return was -0.4%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 1.1 percentage points and the medical index by 1.1 percentage points. Key contributors within the portfolio included Hua Kang Clean (up 4.7%) and Kanglongcheng (up 15.9%), while Mei Hao Medical (down 6.9%) and East China Pharma (down 6.8%) dragged returns.
Hong Kong Portfolio: The weekly weighted average return was -5.2%, in line with the Hang Seng Index (down 5.2%) but underperforming the Hang Seng Healthcare Index (down 1.3%) by 4.0 percentage points. Notable performances include Colbert Bio (up 0.5%), while Jin Fang Pharma (down 15.1%) and Top All (down 13.3%) experienced significant corrections.

Secondary Market Performance and Valuation Metrics

Index and Sub-sector Performance: The medical bio index fell 1.47% this week. The best-performing sub-sector was medical R&D outsourcing, up 12.8%, a stark contrast to the overall index. Year-to-date, medical R&D outsourcing (+16.4%) is the standout, while sub-sectors like vaccines (-4.1% weekly), medical consumables (-4.6%), and traditional Chinese medicine (-4.8%) underperform.
Stock Movers: Top gainers included Garden Bio (+35.9%), Asymchem (+24.2%), and MediTrust (+23.8%), reflecting market bets on CXO and specific drug pipelines. Losers included Sailon Retreat (-95.8%), Biolight (-23.5%), and Bright Gene (-20.5%), indicating severe distress in some names.
Valuation Context: The industry's PE of 26.37x is relatively stable, with its premium over the CSI 300 at 93.19% (up 7.01pp week-over-week), suggesting a concentrated premium in high-growth innovative segments. The premium over all A-shares (ex-banks) is a modest 4.44%, implying limited outright overvaluation relative to the growth stock universe.

Capital Market Activity: Block Trades, Financing, and Corporate Actions

Block Trades: 22 medical companies engaged in block trades totaling 320 million yuan. Top trades were in WuXi AppTec (165.13 million yuan), Junshi BioU (97.36 million yuan), and Gongtong Pharma (61.61 million yuan), accounting for 51.07% of the total, indicating institutional interest in large-cap names.
Financing Activity: The top five stocks by financing buying were WuXi AppTec, Hengrui Pharma, Mindray Medical, Jiuang Medical, and Fuxiang Stock. Top stocks for short selling included WuXi AppTec, Hengrui Pharma, Jiuang Medical, Asymchem, and Yunnan Baiyao, illustrating speculative interest and hedging in core holdings.
Shareholder Activity: 14 companies reported shareholder reductions this week. Rui'ang Gene (intended reduction up to 3.00% of total shares) and ST Zhongzhu (3.00%) signaled caution from major shareholders. Notable reductions also occurred at Macau Audi (1.00%) and Iray Technology (0.93%), suggesting selective profit-taking or portfolio adjustments.
Pledge Information: Leading equity pledges include Erkan Pharma (47.35%), ST Haiwang (46.15%), and Enwei Medical (45.20%), indicating high financial leverage risk for these entities.

Industry News and Corporate Milestones

Hua Kang Clean: Won a bid for the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University's Taizhou Hospital project worth 82.47 million yuan (3.61% of 2025 revenue), reinforcing its cleanroom integration service capabilities.
Hengrui Pharma: Received NMPA approval for its PD-L1 inhibitor (Adebrelimab) for perioperative NSCLC, becoming the first domestic PD-L1 to achieve this indication. Data showed a 53.8% MPR rate and a 48% reduction in disease recurrence/progression/mortality risk.
Top All (1952.HK): The NMPA accepted the BLA for its third-generation PCSK9 inhibitor (Lerodalcibep) for hypercholesterolemia, a key milestone in its metabolic pipeline.

Risk Factors and Key Concerns

The report explicitly highlights three primary risks: 1) Policy uncertainty in the medical industry exceeding expectations (e.g., pricing, procurement, compliance); 2) R&D progress falling short of expectations; 3) Earnings misses, particularly for companies with high valuation premiums.

Summary

Overall Assessment and Risk Considerations

The weekly data confirms a market in transition: an overall weak performance (year-to-date -14.11%) is masking significant structural opportunities in innovation-driven sub-sectors. The core investment narrative is anchored in the bottoming of innovative drugs (supported by data from approvals and BD deals) and the CXO sector's dual-engine growth (external demand resilience and internal demand recovery).
Medical devices offer a more nuanced data-dependent story, with high-value consumables benefiting from procurement normalization and low-value consumables from export recovery, while medical equipment faces near-term headwinds reflected in a 14.4% YoY drop in bidding activity.
Raw materials are seen as a moderate structural story, with focus on CDMO-linked and export-strong companies.
Key risks to the thesis include sector-wide policy headwinds (e.g., compliance, pricing) and individual stock execution variance, as evidenced by a wide weekly return dispersion from +35.9% to -95.8%. The report's portfolio construction favors a barbell approach: high-exposure to innovation in drugs and CXO, balanced with selective exposure to recovery stories in medical devices and raw materials.

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