2025中国医药研发创新与营销创新峰会
Robust overseas momentum and domestic

Robust overseas momentum and domestic

研报

Robust overseas momentum and domestic

  南微医学(688029)   A solid 2025; 1Q26 revenue slightly ahead of expectations. In 2025, MicroTech reported revenue of RMB3.2bn (+15.5% YoY) and attributable net profit ofRMB570mn (+3.1% YoY). Its 1Q26 revenue grew 22.1% YoY to RMB854mn,slightly beating our expectations and accounted for 24% of our full-year forecast(vs. the historical average of 21%). Attributable net profit declined 9.0% YoY toRMB146mn primarily dragged by FX losses. Given the strong growth ofoverseas business and potential recovery of domestic business, we raise our2026 full-year revenue growth estimates from 11.4% to 15.9%.   Overseas business remained the primary growth engine. In 2025,overseas revenue increased 40.9% YoY to RMB1.9bn. Excluding theRMB267mn contribution from subsidiary CME, organic overseas growthremained solid at ~21%. This strong momentum persisted in 1Q26, withoverseas revenue up 28.2% YoY, lifting its revenue contribution from 60%in 2025 to 61% in 1Q26. We believe the acquisition of CME and CONMED’s(CNMD US, NR) GI endoscopic consumable product lines will significantlyenhance Micro-Tech’s direct sales footprint in US and European markets.We continue to view the direct sales capability as a critical competitive moatfor its rapid overseas growth. Additionally, the January 2026 launch of theThailand manufacturing center should further enhance its global deliveryefficiency and supply chain resilience.   Domestic market showed signs of recovery. While 2025 domesticrevenue declined 9.6% YoY to RMB1.25bn due to the VBPs, 1Q26 domesticrevenue recovered with a 13.6% YoY growth. Notably, domestic sales of GIproducts grew ~25% YoY in 1Q26. Despite the ongoing VBPs inGuangdong and Zhejiang provinces, we believe the marginal policy impactis weakening, driven by the rapid growth of innovative products. In our view,Micro-Tech’s domestic business has shown signs of bottoming out.   Innovative products contributed meaningful incremental growth.Revenue from innovative products (including visualization business) grewover 40% YoY in 2025, accounting for 8% of total revenue. In 1Q26, revenuefrom innovative products increased 65% YoY, expanding their revenueshare to 10.6%. With domestic channel inventory for single-use endoscopeslargely digested and strong global growth, we expect visualization businessto maintain robust momentum in 2026E. Overall, we see the continued rampof the innovation portfolio and overseas expansion as effective offsets todomestic VBP pressure.   Maintain BUY. Given the slight 1Q26 revenue growth beat, we raise our2026E–2028E revenue forecasts. Accordingly, we raise our target price toRMB97.38 based on a 10-year DCF model (WACC: 10.7%, terminal growth:2.0%; both unchanged).
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  • 发布机构:

    CMB International Capital Corporation Limited

  • 发布日期:

    2026-04-28

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报告摘要

  南微医学(688029)

  A solid 2025; 1Q26 revenue slightly ahead of expectations. In 2025, MicroTech reported revenue of RMB3.2bn (+15.5% YoY) and attributable net profit ofRMB570mn (+3.1% YoY). Its 1Q26 revenue grew 22.1% YoY to RMB854mn,slightly beating our expectations and accounted for 24% of our full-year forecast(vs. the historical average of 21%). Attributable net profit declined 9.0% YoY toRMB146mn primarily dragged by FX losses. Given the strong growth ofoverseas business and potential recovery of domestic business, we raise our2026 full-year revenue growth estimates from 11.4% to 15.9%.

  Overseas business remained the primary growth engine. In 2025,overseas revenue increased 40.9% YoY to RMB1.9bn. Excluding theRMB267mn contribution from subsidiary CME, organic overseas growthremained solid at ~21%. This strong momentum persisted in 1Q26, withoverseas revenue up 28.2% YoY, lifting its revenue contribution from 60%in 2025 to 61% in 1Q26. We believe the acquisition of CME and CONMED’s(CNMD US, NR) GI endoscopic consumable product lines will significantlyenhance Micro-Tech’s direct sales footprint in US and European markets.We continue to view the direct sales capability as a critical competitive moatfor its rapid overseas growth. Additionally, the January 2026 launch of theThailand manufacturing center should further enhance its global deliveryefficiency and supply chain resilience.

  Domestic market showed signs of recovery. While 2025 domesticrevenue declined 9.6% YoY to RMB1.25bn due to the VBPs, 1Q26 domesticrevenue recovered with a 13.6% YoY growth. Notably, domestic sales of GIproducts grew ~25% YoY in 1Q26. Despite the ongoing VBPs inGuangdong and Zhejiang provinces, we believe the marginal policy impactis weakening, driven by the rapid growth of innovative products. In our view,Micro-Tech’s domestic business has shown signs of bottoming out.

  Innovative products contributed meaningful incremental growth.Revenue from innovative products (including visualization business) grewover 40% YoY in 2025, accounting for 8% of total revenue. In 1Q26, revenuefrom innovative products increased 65% YoY, expanding their revenueshare to 10.6%. With domestic channel inventory for single-use endoscopeslargely digested and strong global growth, we expect visualization businessto maintain robust momentum in 2026E. Overall, we see the continued rampof the innovation portfolio and overseas expansion as effective offsets todomestic VBP pressure.

  Maintain BUY. Given the slight 1Q26 revenue growth beat, we raise our2026E–2028E revenue forecasts. Accordingly, we raise our target price toRMB97.38 based on a 10-year DCF model (WACC: 10.7%, terminal growth:2.0%; both unchanged).

中心思想

海外业务强劲增长与国内业务触底回升构成双重驱动引擎

Micro-Tech在2025年实现稳健业绩增长,2026年第一季度营收表现略超预期,主要得益于海外业务的持续高增长和国内市场的初步复苏。公司通过战略收购CME及整合CONMED产品线,强化了在欧美市场的直销能力,海外收入贡献占比提升至61%。同时,创新产品(特别是可视化业务)收入同比增长超过65%,有效对冲了集采政策对国内业务带来的压力。

营收预期上调与估值模型支撑买入评级

基于一季度营收增速超预期(22.1% YoY)及海外业务持续扩张的确定性,分析师将2026年全年营收增长预期从11.4%上调至15.9%。通过10年期DCF模型(WACC 10.7%,终端增长率2.0%)计算,目标价上调至人民币97.38元,对应当前股价有28.5%的上行空间,维持“买入”评级。

主要内容

业绩回顾:2025年稳健收官,2026年一季度营收超预期

2025年全年业绩表现

2025年公司实现营收人民币32亿元(同比+15.5%),归母净利润人民币5.7亿元(同比+3.1%)。净利润增速低于营收增速,主要受汇兑损失及集采政策对国内利润的拖累。

2026年一季度指引超预期

1Q26营收同比增长22.1%至人民币8.54亿元,略超市场预期,占全年预测的24%(历史均值为21%)。归母净利润同比下降9.0%至人民币1.46亿元,主因外汇损失;剔除汇兑影响后经营利润表现稳健。

海外业务:持续高增长,直销体系构建竞争壁垒

海外收入贡献占比超60%

2025年海外收入同比增长40.9%至人民币19亿元,剔除子公司CME贡献的2.67亿元后,有机海外增速仍达约21%。1Q26海外收入同比增28.2%,收入占比从2025年的60%提升至61%。

收购与产能布局强化竞争护城河

收购CME及整合CONMED(CNMD US)的消化内镜耗材产品线,显著增强了公司在欧美市场的直销能力。2026年1月泰国制造中心投产,进一步提升全球交付效率与供应链韧性,被视为海外高速增长的关键竞争壁垒。

国内市场:集采压力边际减弱,创新驱动复苏

国内收入触底反弹

2025年国内收入因集采影响同比下降9.6%至人民币12.5亿元,但1Q26国内收入恢复同比增长13.6%,其中消化内镜产品销售额同比增长约25%。尽管广东、浙江等省份集采仍在进行,但政策边际影响因创新产品快速放量而弱化。

国内业务底部确认

分析师认为国内业务已显现触底迹象,未来增长将由创新产品的渗透率提升和渠道库存消化所驱动。

创新产品:可视化业务成为新的增长极

创新产品收入占比持续提升

2025年创新产品(含可视化业务)收入同比增长超40%,占总营收的8%。1Q26创新产品收入同比猛增65%,占比进一步扩大至10.6%。一次性内镜在国内外渠道库存基本消化,预计2026年可视化业务将维持强劲增长。

对冲集采压力的有效工具

创新组合的持续放量叠加海外扩张,被视作有效对冲国内集采压力的核心策略,为毛利率稳定提供支撑。

估值与评级:目标价上调至97.38元,维持买入

DCF估值模型关键假设

基于10年期DCF模型(WACC 10.7%,终端增长率2.0%),目标价从92.13元上调至97.38元。敏感性分析显示,在WACC 9.7%-11.7%及终端增长率1.0%-3.0%区间内,目标价变动范围为80.65-123.89元。

盈利预测上调

2026-2028年营收预测分别上调3.85%/4.09%/3.18%,EPS预测上调3.67%/4.63%/4.25%。当前股价对应2026/2027/2028年PE分别为23.3/19.5/16.4倍,低于历史均值,估值具备吸引力。

总结

本报告的核心逻辑是Micro-Tech正经历“海外高增长+国内触底回升+创新产品爆发”三轮驱动阶段。海外业务通过收购CME和CONMED产品线构建了强大的直销网络,叠加泰国制造中心投产,海外收入占比已超60%并持续提升;国内业务在集采压力边际减弱的背景下,创新产品(尤其是可视化业务)增速超过65%,有效弥补了集采带来的收入缺口。分析师上调2026年营收增速至15.9%,并通过DCF模型将目标价提升至人民币97.38元(上行空间28.5%),维持“买入”评级。主要风险包括集采进一步扩大、海外整合不及预期、汇兑波动及竞争加剧。

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