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报告内容

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报告摘要

　　药明康德(603259)

　　WuXi AppTec reported better-than-expected 1H25 results, with revenueincreasing by 20.6% YoY (including 24.2% YoY growth for continuing operations)and adj. non-IFRS net profit surging by 44.4% YoY. Revenue from continuingoperations and adj. non-IFRS net profit accounted for 47.5% and 54.4%,respectively, of our full-year forecasts, both higher than the historical ranges.WuXi AppTec delivered strong operational execution, despite ongoing macrouncertainties. As such, mgmt. raised its full-year guidance for 2025, expectingrevenue of continuing operations to grow by 13-17% (vs prior guidance of 10-15%) and adj. non-IFRS net profit margin to expand in 2025.

　　Robust commercial demand drives CDMO outperformance. The robustdemand for late-stage clinical and commercial manufacturing has been a keygrowth driver for the global CXO industry in the post-COVID era. As a globalleader in the chemical drug CDMO sector, WuXi AppTec has substantiallybenefited from this trend. In 1H25, its TIDES revenue surged by 141.6% YoYthanks to faster-than-expected manufacturing capacity ramp-up. Mgmt raisedits full-year guidance for TIDEs revenue growth from 60% to 80%. Revenuefrom small molecule D&M grew by 17.5% YoY, marking a notable reboundfrom the negative growth seen in 2023/2024. In addition, the volatilities in USChina tariffs seemed to have limited impact to the Company’s first halfoperation, in our view. Despite ongoing volatility in the global macroenvironment, we believe that the sustained demand for commercial drugmanufacturing is likely to continue, supporting the growth of leading CDMOplayers like WuXi AppTec.

　　Expanding global capacity to support long-term growth. As of end-1H25,WuXi AppTec’s backlog impressively grew by 37.2% YoY, with backlog ofTIDES increasing even more strongly at 48.8% YoY. The mgmt. reiteratedtheir plan to increase the Company’s peptide capacity to over 100k liters bythe end of 2025 to support the demand from both existing commercialprojects and growing pipelines. At the same time, capacity expansion effortsare underway at multiple sites, including Changzhou (China), Singapore, theUS and Switzerland. WuXi AppTec has reaffirmed its capex target of RMB7–8bn in 2025, and anticipated possible increases in capex in the coming years.

　　Recovery in early-stage R&D still takes time. While revenue from earlystage R&D services showed sequential improvements in 1H25 over 2024,mgmt. viewed that a meaningful recovery in early-stage R&D demand willtake time. Early-stage R&D services contribute ~30% of the Company’s totalrevenue. The global biotech financing usually serves as an early indicator ofearly-stage R&D demand.

　　Maintain BUY. We raise our DCF-based TP from RMB77.22 to RMB116.56(WACC: 9.42%, terminal growth: 2.00%; both unchanged), to factor in theupgraded guidance and the improved macro environment such as the USChina tariff. We now expect revenue from continuing operations to grow by16.0%/ 15.9%/ 15.8% YoY and adjusted non-IFRS net profit to grow by16.2%/ 17.6%/ 16.4% YoY in 2025E/ 26E/ 27E, respectively

中心思想

本报告对药明康德(603259 CH)2025年上半年的业绩进行了分析，并展望了其未来发展。核心观点如下：

业绩超预期增长： 药明康德在不确定的市场环境中实现了显著增长，收入和利润均超出预期，并上调了全年业绩指引。
CDMO业务驱动： 后疫情时代，商业化生产需求的强劲增长是CXO行业的主要驱动力，药明康德作为化学药物CDMO领域的领导者，从中受益匪浅。
维持买入评级： 考虑到业绩指引的提升和宏观环境的改善，维持“买入”评级，并将目标价从人民币77.22元上调至人民币116.56元。

主要内容

1. 公司更新：业绩增长强劲

药明康德公布了超预期的2025年上半年业绩，收入同比增长20.6%（持续经营业务增长24.2%），调整后非IFRS净利润大幅增长44.4%。持续经营业务收入和调整后非IFRS净利润分别占我们全年预测的47.5%和54.4%，均高于历史范围。尽管宏观环境存在不确定性，但药明康德的运营执行力依然强劲。因此，管理层上调了2025年全年指引，预计持续经营业务收入将增长13-17%（此前为10-15%），调整后非IFRS净利润率将在2025年有所提高。

2. 商业需求驱动CDMO业务表现出色

后疫情时代，对后期临床和商业化生产的强劲需求一直是全球CXO行业的主要增长动力。作为化学药物CDMO领域的全球领导者，药明康德已从这一趋势中受益匪浅。2025年上半年，由于生产能力提升速度快于预期，其TIDES收入同比增长141.6%。管理层将全年TIDES收入增长指引从60%上调至80%。小分子D&M收入同比增长17.5%，标志着从2023/2024年的负增长中显著反弹。此外，我们认为，美国-中国关税的波动对公司上半年的运营影响有限。尽管全球宏观环境持续波动，但我们认为，对商业药物生产的持续需求可能会持续下去，从而支持像药明康德这样的领先CDMO企业的增长。

3. 扩大全球产能以支持长期增长

截至2025年上半年末，药明康德的积压订单大幅增长37.2%，其中TIDES的积压订单增长更为强劲，达到48.8%。管理层重申了其到2025年底将公司肽产能提高到10万升以上的计划，以支持现有商业项目和不断增长的管线需求。与此同时，包括常州（中国）、新加坡、美国和瑞士在内的多个基地的产能扩张工作正在进行中。药明康德重申了2025年70-80亿元人民币的资本支出目标，并预计未来几年资本支出可能会增加。