Strong recovery in Q3-摩熵咨询

报告内容

AI精读报告

报告摘要

　　联影医疗(688271)

　　United Imaging (UIH) reported strong 9M25 results, with revenue of RMB8.9bn(+27% YoY), reaching 69% of our prior full-year estimate and exceeding thehistorical average of ~65%. The sharp 75% YoY revenue growth in 3Q25 wasdriven by a significant recovery in domestic equipment procurement, sustainedoverseas growth momentum, and a low base in 3Q24. Domestic demandremained solid, with the value of medical imaging tenders up by 55% YoY in 3Q25,according to Joinchain. Overseas growth was supported by strong order intakeand improved order-to-revenue conversion. Therefore, we raise our 2025Erevenue forecast to RMB13.3bn, implying 28.8% YoY growth.

　　Robust performance of high-end portfolios. UIH’s domestic revenue grew24% YoY to RMB6.9bn in 9M25, driven by procurement recovery and marketshare gain of over 4ppts. High-end products remained a key growth driver. 1)MR revenue grew 40% YoY, with notable share gains in 5T (+ ~52ppts) and3T (+over 4ppts). 2) CT revenue increased 8% YoY with high-end CT up ~30%YoY. We expect photon-counting CT uCT Ultima and uCT Siriux to furtherstrengthen UIH’s position in the high-end CT market. 3) MI revenue rose 22%YoY with PET/CT maintaining its decade-long leading position in China. uMIPanorama has contributed ~40% of MI revenue. 4) XR and RT both delivereddouble-digit growth with continued share gains. The increasing revenuecontribution from mid- to high-end products is expected to offset marginpressures from lower-end portfolios. Moreover, the upcoming launch of acomprehensive ultrasound portfolio in Nov 2025 should further support UIH’s“diagnosis-to-treatment” strategy and high-end imaging leadership, in ourview.

　　Overseas business maintained strong momentum. Overseas revenuerose 42% to RMB2.0bn, representing 22.5% (+2.3ppts) of total revenue in9M25. Revenue in North America grew by over 50% YoY to ~RMB700mn in9M, with US service revenue up 80%+ YoY on the back of an expandinginstalled base. A diversified supply chain and proactive inventory managementhelped mitigate tariff pressure, while recurring service revenue may enhancelong-term resilience. European revenue more than doubled YoY to overRMB400mn in 9M. Notably, uMI Panorama GS and uMI Panvivo havepenetrated into the high-end market in Western Europe. Asia-Pacific andemerging markets also delivered double-digit growth. Management indicatedrobust overseas order intake. With stronger sales conversion from orders, weexpect overseas growth to remain solid in 4Q25E.

　　Maintain BUY. Considering the rapid domestic recovery in 2025E and strongoverseas growth momentum, we raise our forecasts of 2025–2027E revenueCAGR from 22.6% to 24.1%. Based on a 9-year DCF model (WACC: 8.1%,terminal growth: 4.0%), we raise our target price to RMB162.29

中心思想

国内采购环境显著修复，推动Q3业绩超预期

联影医疗2025年前三季度实现营收89亿元（同比+27%），其中第三季度收入同比飙升75%，远超历史同期约65%的营收完成率。这一强劲反弹主要得益于国内医疗设备招标市场的大幅回暖——根据Joinchain数据，3Q25医学影像招标金额同比增长55%。公司国内收入前三季度增长24%至69亿元，同时海外业务延续高增态势，形成了双轮驱动格局。基于此，报告将2025年营收预测上调至133亿元（同比+28.8%）。

高端产品与海外布局构成中长期增长引擎

高端产品线表现尤为突出：MR收入增长40%，5T/3T市场份额分别提升约52个和4个百分点；高端CT增速达30%，新一代光子计数CT有望巩固龙头地位；PET/CT保持十年领先，uMI Panorama贡献约40%的MI收入；XR和RT均实现双位数增长。海外业务前三季度收入20亿元（同比+42%），北美增长超50%至7亿元，欧洲翻倍至4亿元以上。高端化与国际化将持续优化收入结构，为盈利韧性提供支撑。

主要内容

公司业绩概览：三季度强劲复苏

国内招标回暖：3Q25医学影像招标金额同比+55%，带动设备采购需求集中释放。
海外延续高增：海外收入9M25同比+42%至20亿元，占整体收入比例提升至22.5%（+2.3ppt）。
营收与利润展望：9M25营收89亿元（同比+27%），达到全年预测的69%；预计2025–2027年营收CAGR从22.6%上调至24.1%。

高端产品组合：份额与增速齐升

MR：收入同比+40%，5T/3T高端磁共振份额大幅提升，成为增长核心。
CT：整体收入同比+8%，高端CT同比+30%；未来光子计数CT uCT Ultima/Siriux将强化竞争壁垒。
MI：收入同比+22%，PET/CT持续主导国内高端市场，uMI Panorama贡献约40%的MI收入。
XR/RT：均实现双位数增长，市场占有率持续扩大。超声产品线计划于11月推出，进一步补齐“诊断－治疗”闭环。

海外业务：北美领跑，欧洲翻倍

北美：前三季度收入约7亿元（同比+50%+），服务收入同比+80%以上，受益于装机量扩大和多元化供应链管理。
欧洲：前三季度收入超4亿元（同比翻倍），uMI Panorama GS等高端产品打入西欧市场。
亚太及其他新兴市场：均实现双位数增长，订单储备充足，4Q25E有望继续强劲转化。

估值与评级：维持买入，目标价上调

盈利预测调整：2025E–2027E营收预测分别上调3.6%/6.7%/6.2%至133/167/204亿元；净利润预测分别微调-2.0%/-0.3%/+0.6%。
DCF估值：基于9年DCF模型（WACC 8.1%，终值增长率4.0%），目标价从163.49元上调至162.29元，现价141.03元隐含15.1%上行空间。
风险提示：注意毛利率和净利率因低端产品结构影响略有承压；海外关税及供应链波动仍需关注。

总结

联影医疗在2025年第三季度实现业绩的显著反弹，国内招标复苏与海外高增长两大引擎同步发力。高端产品线（尤其是MR、CT高端和MI）的份额扩张与新品推出，不仅推动了收入结构优化，也为利润率提供了缓冲。海外北美和欧洲市场的高速增长显示出公司产品的全球竞争力，且服务收入占比提升增强了收入韧性。报告上调2025–2027年营收预测至133/167/204亿元，DCF目标价162.29元，维持买入评级。核心关注点在于：4Q25E订单向收入的转化速度、超声新品落地后的协同效应，以及海外地缘政治与关税风险的管控能力。

报告正文