药明康德(603259) 　　WuXi AppTec released better-than-expected 1Q26 financial results. Revenuegrew by 28.8% YoY to RMB12.4bn with continuing operations revenue increasingby 39.4% YoY, while adj. non-IFRS attributable net profit surged 71.7% YoY toRMB4.6bn. 1Q26 revenue/ adj. net profit represent 24.1%/ 25.6% of our full-yearforecasts, respectively, significantly higher than the historical average of 18-20%.As of 1Q26, backlog for continuing operations grew by 23.6% YoY (+29% YoY ifexcl. FX fluctuations) to RMB59.8bn, with new orders signed in 1Q26 growing byover 25%. Mgmt. maintained full-year guidance, projecting 2026 revenue to reachRMB51.3-53.0bn, with revenue from continuing operations to grow by 18-22%YoY. Adj. net profit margin is expected to remain stable. Mgmt. indicated plans toraise the guidance in due course based on future business developments. 　　CRDMO model to capture global blockbuster opportunities. Within thismodel, drug discovery and development services continuously funnel projectsto downstream. The Company delivered +420,000 new compounds over thepast 12 months, converted 83 projects from R to D, and added nine new PhIIIand commercial projects in 1Q26. This funnel model, which covers a widerange of therapeutic areas and a large customer base globally, allows theCompany to identify industry trends and build capacity in advance. As aresult, this approach has enabled WuXi AppTec to capitalize on commercialopportunities for multiple global blockbuster products, including oral COVID-19 drugs and peptides/ small-molecule GLP-1 drugs. Benefiting from oralGLP-1 drugs, revenue from small molecule D&M surged by 80.1% YoY in1Q26, creating a new growth engine for the Company. As a natural extensionof CRDMO model, TIDES saw 1Q26 revenue growth impacted by the pacingof product deliveries, resulting in a modest 6.1% YoY increase. However,based on a robust backlog, mgmt. expects full-year revenue for this segmentto grow by ~40%, reflecting mgmt's confidence in the TIDES business. 　　Continued capacity expansion. Driven by growing global demand, WuXiAppTec plans to bring the construction of new Changzhou site ahead ofschedule, which will house both small molecule and TIDES capacity. Mgmt.targets the total solid-phase synthesis reactor volume to reach 130k liters bythe end of 2026, up from 100k liters at the end of 2025. Despite theuncertainties from the Middle East, the strategic cooperation agreementsigned with the Saudi government last Oct is proceeding as planned, a keycomponent of the Company's long-term strategy to build global capabilitiesand capacity. Mgmt. forecasts 2026 capex to be RMB6.5-7.5bn, representinga YoY increase of 17.3-35.4%. We believe that WuXi AppTec's mature globalCRDMO network and ongoing expansions will further reinforce its leadingposition in the global pharmaceutical outsourcing industry. 　　Maintain BUY. To factor into the strong momentum of small molecule D&Mbusiness, we lift our earnings forecasts, expecting revenue to grow by 15.2%/16.3%/ 14.8% YoY (for continuing operations: 20.6%/ 16.3%/ 14.8% YoY)and adj. net profit to grow by 26.2%/ 18.0%/ 15.8% YoY in 2026E/ 27E/ 28E,respectively. Hence, we raise our DCF-based TP from RMB133.00 toRMB143.00 (WACC: 9.39%, terminal growth: 2.00%; both unchanged).

　　南微医学(688029) 　　A solid 2025; 1Q26 revenue slightly ahead of expectations. In 2025, MicroTech reported revenue of RMB3.2bn (+15.5% YoY) and attributable net profit ofRMB570mn (+3.1% YoY). Its 1Q26 revenue grew 22.1% YoY to RMB854mn,slightly beating our expectations and accounted for 24% of our full-year forecast(vs. the historical average of 21%). Attributable net profit declined 9.0% YoY toRMB146mn primarily dragged by FX losses. Given the strong growth ofoverseas business and potential recovery of domestic business, we raise our2026 full-year revenue growth estimates from 11.4% to 15.9%. 　　Overseas business remained the primary growth engine. In 2025,overseas revenue increased 40.9% YoY to RMB1.9bn. Excluding theRMB267mn contribution from subsidiary CME, organic overseas growthremained solid at ~21%. This strong momentum persisted in 1Q26, withoverseas revenue up 28.2% YoY, lifting its revenue contribution from 60%in 2025 to 61% in 1Q26. We believe the acquisition of CME and CONMED’s(CNMD US, NR) GI endoscopic consumable product lines will significantlyenhance Micro-Tech’s direct sales footprint in US and European markets.We continue to view the direct sales capability as a critical competitive moatfor its rapid overseas growth. Additionally, the January 2026 launch of theThailand manufacturing center should further enhance its global deliveryefficiency and supply chain resilience. 　　Domestic market showed signs of recovery. While 2025 domesticrevenue declined 9.6% YoY to RMB1.25bn due to the VBPs, 1Q26 domesticrevenue recovered with a 13.6% YoY growth. Notably, domestic sales of GIproducts grew ~25% YoY in 1Q26. Despite the ongoing VBPs inGuangdong and Zhejiang provinces, we believe the marginal policy impactis weakening, driven by the rapid growth of innovative products. In our view,Micro-Tech’s domestic business has shown signs of bottoming out. 　　Innovative products contributed meaningful incremental growth.Revenue from innovative products (including visualization business) grewover 40% YoY in 2025, accounting for 8% of total revenue. In 1Q26, revenuefrom innovative products increased 65% YoY, expanding their revenueshare to 10.6%. With domestic channel inventory for single-use endoscopeslargely digested and strong global growth, we expect visualization businessto maintain robust momentum in 2026E. Overall, we see the continued rampof the innovation portfolio and overseas expansion as effective offsets todomestic VBP pressure. 　　Maintain BUY. Given the slight 1Q26 revenue growth beat, we raise our2026E–2028E revenue forecasts. Accordingly, we raise our target price toRMB97.38 based on a 10-year DCF model (WACC: 10.7%, terminal growth:2.0%; both unchanged).

　　迈瑞医疗(300760) 　　Mindray reported revenue of RMB33.3bn (-9.4% YoY) and attributable net profitof RMB8.1bn (-30.3% YoY) in 2025, 2%/ 12% below our estimates, respectively.The weak domestic business was the primary drag, which was attributable todomestic hospital budget constraints and policy pressures in IVD market.Attributable NPM dropped 7.3ppts YoY in 2025, reflecting domestic price cuts,FX losses, and higher overseas selling expenses. Looking ahead, we expect thedomestic business to bottom out in 2026E, while overseas business remains thekey growth driver. With resilient overseas growth, ongoing IVD share gains, andrapid scaling in emerging businesses, we believe Mindray remains wellpositioned for a long-term recovery. However, margin pressure may persistgiven the implementation of chemiluminescence VBP, FX volatility, and a highereffective tax rate. 　　Overseas business remains resilient, led by Europe. Overseas revenuegrew 7.4% YoY to RMB17.7bn in 2025, accounting for 53% of total revenue.The overseas growth moderated amid inflation, geopolitical disruptions, anddelayed procurement in developing markets. Even so, Europe delivered astrong 17% YoY increase, supported by Mindray’s growing localization andintelligent solutions, which effectively addressed local labor shortages. Weexpect overseas growth to reaccelerate in 2026E as Mindray deepens localoperations and expands into higher-end accounts. 　　Expect domestic business to bottom out in 2026E. Domestic revenuedeclined 23.0% YoY to RMB15.6bn in 2025, pressured by reduced hospitalprocurement budget and ongoing policy headwinds including DRG/DIP andVBP. Despite these near-term headwinds, we remain positive on Mindray’sdomestic IVD business, where Mindray continues to execute on its “DoubleBig” strategy focused on top-tier hospitals and large-volume customers. In2025, revenue from these key customers grew nearly 20% YoY andrepresented 45% of domestic IVD reagent revenue. We project a return topositive growth in domestic business in 2026E, underpinned by ongoing IVDshare gains and a growing revenue mix from emerging businesses. 　　Emerging businesses are becoming the next growth driver. Emergingbusiness revenue rose 38.9% YoY to RMB5.4bn, accounting for 16% of totalrevenue, making it Mindray’s fastest-growing segment. This segmentincludes minimally invasive interventions (APT Medical), minimally invasivesurgery and animal care. We think the long-term growth is driven by an agingpopulation, adoption of minimally invasive procedures, and growth in pethealthcare. With enriching product pipelines, we believe these businessescan become a meaningful long-term growth driver. 　　Maintain BUY. Given the lower-than-expected earnings in 2025, we lowerour 2026E revenue/earnings forecast by 6%/23%, respectively, and reviseour target price to RMB204.54, based on a 9-year DCF (WACC: 9.1%,terminal growth: 3.0%, unchanged).

　　迈瑞医疗(300760) 　　Mindray reported9M25revenue of RMB25.8bn,down by12.4%YoY.Revenuein3Q25reached RMB9.1bn,up by1.5%YoY,indicating a turnaround driven byaccelerating overseas growth and mild domestic recovery.Overseas revenuerose12%YoY to RMB4.6bn in3Q,with revenue from Europe up by29%.Domestic revenue fell by7%YoY in3Q,while the decline narrowed notablycompared to1H25.We anticipate a further acceleration in growth in4Q25,supported by the ongoing recovery in domestic equipment procurement,solidoverseas momentum,and a favorable base effect. 　　IVD:solid overseas growth;accelerated TLA installation.In3Q25,IVDsegment reported revenue of RMB3.6bn,down by3%YoY,with overseasIVD revenue achieving double-digit growth.TLA(Total LaboratoryAutomation)installations continued to accelerate.In9M25,180units of theMT8000TLA were installed in China,and full-year domestic deploymentsare expected to exceed200units,per company guidance.OverseasMT8000sales surpassed20units,which has met the full-year target.Weexpect TLA systems to enhance Mindray’s penetration into leading domestichospitals and medium-to-high throughput labs overseas,supporting long-term IVD growth. 　　MIS:continued high-end upgrade.MIS segment reported revenue ofRMB1.7bn in3Q25,roughly flat YoY.Overseas MIS grew at a high single-digit rate,while sales of ultra-high-end products doubled in9M25.We seesignificant potential for market share gains in high-end and ultra-high-endultrasound,both domestically and internationally,driven by the risingadoption of Resona A20/Nuewa A20and upcoming launches in thepremium portfolio. 　　Profitability under headwinds.Mindray’s attributable net margin declinedto29.3%in9M25,down7ppts YoY,mainly due to domestic pricing pressurefrom volume-based procurement(VBP)and intensified competition.Increased investment in overseas expansion also led to an increase inselling expenses.Going forward,we expect greater in-house reagent rawmaterial production,a higher mix of high-end products,and growingoverseas contribution to partly offset domestic margin pressure and supportsound long-term profitability. 　　Maintain BUY.Given continued demand and pricing pressure in the IVDsegment,we revise down our2025E-27E forecasts and lower our targetprice to RMB249.21based on a9-year DCF model(WACC:9.1%,terminalgrowth:3.0%).

　　联影医疗(688271) 　　United Imaging (UIH) reported strong 9M25 results, with revenue of RMB8.9bn(+27% YoY), reaching 69% of our prior full-year estimate and exceeding thehistorical average of ~65%. The sharp 75% YoY revenue growth in 3Q25 wasdriven by a significant recovery in domestic equipment procurement, sustainedoverseas growth momentum, and a low base in 3Q24. Domestic demandremained solid, with the value of medical imaging tenders up by 55% YoY in 3Q25,according to Joinchain. Overseas growth was supported by strong order intakeand improved order-to-revenue conversion. Therefore, we raise our 2025Erevenue forecast to RMB13.3bn, implying 28.8% YoY growth. 　　Robust performance of high-end portfolios. UIH’s domestic revenue grew24% YoY to RMB6.9bn in 9M25, driven by procurement recovery and marketshare gain of over 4ppts. High-end products remained a key growth driver. 1)MR revenue grew 40% YoY, with notable share gains in 5T (+ ~52ppts) and3T (+over 4ppts). 2) CT revenue increased 8% YoY with high-end CT up ~30%YoY. We expect photon-counting CT uCT Ultima and uCT Siriux to furtherstrengthen UIH’s position in the high-end CT market. 3) MI revenue rose 22%YoY with PET/CT maintaining its decade-long leading position in China. uMIPanorama has contributed ~40% of MI revenue. 4) XR and RT both delivereddouble-digit growth with continued share gains. The increasing revenuecontribution from mid- to high-end products is expected to offset marginpressures from lower-end portfolios. Moreover, the upcoming launch of acomprehensive ultrasound portfolio in Nov 2025 should further support UIH’s“diagnosis-to-treatment” strategy and high-end imaging leadership, in ourview. 　　Overseas business maintained strong momentum. Overseas revenuerose 42% to RMB2.0bn, representing 22.5% (+2.3ppts) of total revenue in9M25. Revenue in North America grew by over 50% YoY to ~RMB700mn in9M, with US service revenue up 80%+ YoY on the back of an expandinginstalled base. A diversified supply chain and proactive inventory managementhelped mitigate tariff pressure, while recurring service revenue may enhancelong-term resilience. European revenue more than doubled YoY to overRMB400mn in 9M. Notably, uMI Panorama GS and uMI Panvivo havepenetrated into the high-end market in Western Europe. Asia-Pacific andemerging markets also delivered double-digit growth. Management indicatedrobust overseas order intake. With stronger sales conversion from orders, weexpect overseas growth to remain solid in 4Q25E. 　　Maintain BUY. Considering the rapid domestic recovery in 2025E and strongoverseas growth momentum, we raise our forecasts of 2025–2027E revenueCAGR from 22.6% to 24.1%. Based on a 9-year DCF model (WACC: 8.1%,terminal growth: 4.0%), we raise our target price to RMB162.29

　　药明康德(603259) 　　WuXi AppTec reported strong 3Q25 results, with revenue increasing by 15.3%YoY (including 19.7% YoY growth for continuing operations) and adj. non-IFRSnet profit surging by 42.0% YoY. Revenue from continuing operations in 9M25accounted for 73.8% of our full-year forecast, in line with historical average of72%, while adj. non-IFRS net profit in 9M25 represented 85.7% of our full-yearforecast, significant higher than the historical average of 72%. WuXi AppTecdelivered strong operational execution, despite ongoing macro uncertainties. Assuch, mgmt. further raised its full-year guidance for 2025, expecting total revenueto be RMB43.5-44.0bn (previously: RMB42.5-43.5bn) with revenue fromcontinuing operations to grow by 17-18% (previously: 13-17%). Mgmt. continuedto expect adj. non-IFRS net profit margin to expand in 2025. 　　Encouraging demand growth in small molecule D&M business. As ofSept 2025, WuXi AppTec’s backlog from continuing operations reached RMB59.88bn with a strong YoY growth of 41.2%, accelerated from 37.2% YoY asof Jun 2025. In contrast, backlog for TIDES services grew by 17.1% YoY asat end-Sept 2025, slowing from 48.8% YoY seen as at end-Jun 2025. Thedivergence underscored the small molecule D&M business as a primarygrowth driver for backlog in 3Q25. With that, mgmt. expected acceleratedrevenue growth for this segment in 2026. Mgmt. noted that the Company’spipeline included multiple promising products targeting areas such as GLP-1, PCSK9, pain, neurology, and autoimmune diseases. Given that smallmolecule D&M accounted for 46% of total revenue in 2024, we believe it willbecome a key driver for the Company’s overall growth. To meet the risingcustomer demand, WuXi AppTec is actively expanding manufacturingcapacity in China, Singapore, the US, and Switzerland. 　　Early-stage demand showing more signs of recovery, though a fullrebound will take time. In the Chemistry segment, revenue from drugdiscovery services declined 2.0% YoY in 3Q25, though sequential QoQimprovements were seen. Notably, the safety assessment services posted5.9% YoY and 13.2% QoQ revenue growth in 3Q25, a significant reboundfrom the 7.8% decline in 2Q25, suggesting a recovery in client demand andimproved pricing dynamics. Within the Biology segment, revenue grew 5.9%YoY in the quarter, consistent with the pace observed in 1H25. Mgmt.indicated that early signs of demand recovery are emerging, supported by arebound in China’s capital markets, robust global BD activity, and US interestrate cuts. However, a broad-based industry recovery will still take time. Giventhe high sensitivity to macroeconomic conditions, we believe early-stagebusinesses within WuXi AppTec should have relatively high visibility over thenext two years, as market conditions normalize. 　　Maintain BUY. We raise our DCF-based TP from RMB118.79 to RMB123.35(WACC: 9.39%, terminal growth: 2.00%; both unchanged), to factor in ourimproved outlook on the macro environment. We now expect revenue to growby 12.8%/ 10.7%/ 14.2% YoY (for continuing operations: 18.0%/ 15.0%/14.2% YoY) and adjusted non-IFRS net profit to grow by 19.6%/ 10.2%/13.3% YoY in 2025E/ 26E/ 27E, respectively.

　　药明康德(603259) 　　WuXi AppTec reported better-than-expected 1H25 results, with revenueincreasing by 20.6% YoY (including 24.2% YoY growth for continuing operations)and adj. non-IFRS net profit surging by 44.4% YoY. Revenue from continuingoperations and adj. non-IFRS net profit accounted for 47.5% and 54.4%,respectively, of our full-year forecasts, both higher than the historical ranges.WuXi AppTec delivered strong operational execution, despite ongoing macrouncertainties. As such, mgmt. raised its full-year guidance for 2025, expectingrevenue of continuing operations to grow by 13-17% (vs prior guidance of 10-15%) and adj. non-IFRS net profit margin to expand in 2025. 　　Robust commercial demand drives CDMO outperformance. The robustdemand for late-stage clinical and commercial manufacturing has been a keygrowth driver for the global CXO industry in the post-COVID era. As a globalleader in the chemical drug CDMO sector, WuXi AppTec has substantiallybenefited from this trend. In 1H25, its TIDES revenue surged by 141.6% YoYthanks to faster-than-expected manufacturing capacity ramp-up. Mgmt raisedits full-year guidance for TIDEs revenue growth from 60% to 80%. Revenuefrom small molecule D&M grew by 17.5% YoY, marking a notable reboundfrom the negative growth seen in 2023/2024. In addition, the volatilities in USChina tariffs seemed to have limited impact to the Company’s first halfoperation, in our view. Despite ongoing volatility in the global macroenvironment, we believe that the sustained demand for commercial drugmanufacturing is likely to continue, supporting the growth of leading CDMOplayers like WuXi AppTec. 　　Expanding global capacity to support long-term growth. As of end-1H25,WuXi AppTec’s backlog impressively grew by 37.2% YoY, with backlog ofTIDES increasing even more strongly at 48.8% YoY. The mgmt. reiteratedtheir plan to increase the Company’s peptide capacity to over 100k liters bythe end of 2025 to support the demand from both existing commercialprojects and growing pipelines. At the same time, capacity expansion effortsare underway at multiple sites, including Changzhou (China), Singapore, theUS and Switzerland. WuXi AppTec has reaffirmed its capex target of RMB7–8bn in 2025, and anticipated possible increases in capex in the coming years. 　　Recovery in early-stage R&D still takes time. While revenue from earlystage R&D services showed sequential improvements in 1H25 over 2024,mgmt. viewed that a meaningful recovery in early-stage R&D demand willtake time. Early-stage R&D services contribute ~30% of the Company’s totalrevenue. The global biotech financing usually serves as an early indicator ofearly-stage R&D demand. 　　Maintain BUY. We raise our DCF-based TP from RMB77.22 to RMB116.56(WACC: 9.42%, terminal growth: 2.00%; both unchanged), to factor in theupgraded guidance and the improved macro environment such as the USChina tariff. We now expect revenue from continuing operations to grow by16.0%/ 15.9%/ 15.8% YoY and adjusted non-IFRS net profit to grow by16.2%/ 17.6%/ 16.4% YoY in 2025E/ 26E/ 27E, respectively

中心思想 海外与新兴业务驱动增长，国内业务有望触底反弹 迈瑞医疗2026年第一季度业绩符合预期，营收83.5亿元（同比+1.4%），归母净利润23亿元（同比-11.3%）。增长动力主要来自海外市场（营收占比53%，同比+15.7%），其中欧洲市场增速超过25%，新兴市场恢复至15%增长。国内业务受渠道去库存影响同比下降11.1%，但IVD份额持续提升（从1H25的10%升至1Q26的13%），新兴业务（同比+18.2%）占比达23%，预计2026年全年国内将恢复正增长。 业务结构向耗材与持续收入转型，维持买入评级 新兴业务（IVD新兴业务等）营收14亿元，同比+18.2%，占海外收入约40%、国内收入超70%，显示公司正稳步转向耗材驱动的经常性收入模式。基于DCF估值（WACC 9.1%，终端增长率3.0%），目标价204.54元，当前股价161.11元，潜在上涨空间27.0%，维持买入评级。 主要内容 海外市场：欧洲与新兴市场领跑，产品线全面扩张 欧洲市场：高端客户渗透加速 欧洲营收同比增长超25%，英国、法国、德国、意大利等核心市场表现强劲，高端医院账户渗透率提升明显。 新兴市场：印度与墨西哥实现30%+增长 新兴市场整体恢复15%增长，印度和墨西哥增速均超30%。 产品线：IVD、PMLS、影像全面增长 海外IVD同比增长超20%，PMLS增长15%，医学影像增长超10%。 预计2026年加深本地化布局和高端客户突破将继续驱动海外增长。 国内市场：短期承压但IVD份额提升，新兴业务成为新支撑 渠道去库存拖累设备业务 国内营收同比下降11.1%至39亿元，主因PMLS和MIS渠道去库存。但这两类设备业务占国内收入不足30%，影响可控。 IVD：集采压力下仍实现10%增长，份额跃升至13% 国内CLIA营收同比增长约10%，受益于大型医院账户渗透加深，核心IVD品类份额从1H25的10%升至1Q26的13%。 MT8000 TLA系统装机超80台 1Q26完成超80台MT8000全实验室自动化系统安装，后续将拉动试剂消耗。 新兴业务：同比增18.2%，占比达23% 国内新兴业务（如IVD新兴业务）同比增长超18%，占国内营收23%，成为重要增长极。 展望：2026E国内营收预计恢复正增长 低基数效应、IVD份额提升及新兴业务持续增长将推动国内业务在2026年回正。 新兴业务：快速增长，收入结构持续优化 新兴业务总营收14亿元，同比+18.2%。 IVD与新兴业务合计占海外收入近40%，占国内收入超70%，凸显公司向耗材及经常性收入模式转型的成效。 估值与评级：维持买入，目标价204.54元 维持FY26-28E盈利预测，基于9年DCF模型（WACC 9.1%，终端增长率3.0%），目标价204.54元。 当前PE（FY26E）24.3倍，低于历史中枢，具有估值吸引力。 风险提示：国内设备去库存超预期、汇率波动、地缘政治风险。 总结 迈瑞医疗1Q26业绩符合预期，海外市场（尤其是欧洲和新兴市场）维持高增长，国内业务虽受渠道去库存压制但IVD份额和新兴业务表现亮眼，预计全年国内恢复正增长。公司正加速向耗材驱动的经常性收入模式转型，新兴业务占比持续提升。基于稳定的盈利前景和DCF估值，当前股价具备较高安全边际，维持买入评级，目标价204.54元（上涨空间27%）。

中心思想 康龙化成1Q26业绩强劲开局，CDMO服务成核心增长引擎 康龙化成2026年第一季度业绩表现强劲，实现营收人民币35.8亿元，同比增长15.5%；经调整非IFRS归母净利润达人民币4.06亿元，同比增长16.2%。收入与净利润均基本符合全年预期的历史正常区间，展现了公司稳健的业务运营能力。 订单增长显著加速，1Q26新订单同比增长超30%，远超2025年全年14%的同比增速。增长动力主要来源于四个方面：1）与跨国药企（MNC）客户战略合作深化，1Q26来自全球前20大药企的收入同比增长47.98%；2）国内需求复苏，中国客户收入同比增长43.4%，同时公司在新药授权（out-licensing）趋势中扮演关键角色；3）新分子实体（new modalities）持续快速放量；4）小分子CDMO领域签订重大药品（DP）合同，以及管线项目向后期推进。 主要内容 业绩亮点：营收与利润双位数增长，符合预期 1Q26营收人民币35.8亿元，同比增长15.5%，占全年预测的21.8%。经调整非IFRS归母净利润人民币4.06亿元，同比增长16.2%，占全年预测的18.8%。收入和利润节奏与历史同期区间基本一致，表明公司业绩兑现能力良好。 管理层维持2026年全年营收增长12%-18%的指引，与新订单强劲增长态势相呼应。公司对未来增长保持信心，预测2026E/27E/28E营收同比增速分别为16.5%/16.2%/14.9%，经调整净利润增速分别为18.8%/17.8%/16.1%。 CDMO需求旺盛：小分子CDMO增长领跑，大单落地助力扩张 小分子CDMO业务表现最为突出，1Q26实现营收人民币8.66亿元，同比增长25.0%，显著高于其他业务板块。该增长主要得益于1Q26与礼来（Eli Lilly）签订的口服小分子GLP-1药物Orforglipron的商业化DP合同，以及管线项目向后期阶段的推进。 公司每年服务超过1,000个项目，广泛覆盖有前景的靶点和分子，为未来获取大规模生产订单奠定基础。鉴于当前产能利用率高企，公司将继续推进绍兴基地PhII建设，并规划新的产能扩张。管理层预计2026年资本开支约人民币30亿元（同比增长12.4%），战略重点聚焦于提升CDMO后期项目和新技术产能。基于当前需求和产能规划，管理层预计小分子CDMO业务未来几年将持续超越公司整体增速。 临床服务：亏损收窄，价格压力边际改善 1Q26临床服务收入同比增长11.8%，较2025年全年7.1%的增速有所提升。然而，该板块毛利率为7.1%，同比下降4.7个百分点，主要受收入结构变化和国内市场竞争性定价影响。 新订单方面，SMO（临床试验现场管理）定价已出现恢复迹象，CRO（合同研究组织）价格压力较去年也有所缓解。但由于临床项目转化周期较长，公司仍在执行去年签订的低价订单。管理层预计该板块2026年全年仍将处于亏损收窄阶段，随着高价订单逐步转化为收入，明年业绩有望改善。 投资建议与估值：维持买入评级，DCF目标价人民币39元 报告维持对康龙化成的“买入”评级，基于DCF估值模型的目标价维持于人民币39元（WACC为9.32%，终值增长率为2.0%）。该目标价较当前股价人民币29.75元提供约31.1%的上行空间。 盈利预测显示，公司2026E/27E/28E经调整每股收益（EPS）分别为人民币1.17元/1.38元/1.61元，对应经调整市盈率（P/E）分别为25.3倍/21.5倍/18.5倍。与彭博一致预期相比，CMBIGM对未来净利润的预测在2026E和2027E略高（+4.99%和+1.00%），而在2028E则低于一致预期（-5.02%），体现了对公司中期增长趋势的审慎乐观判断。 总结 康龙化成2026年第一季度报告的核心亮点在于小分子CDMO业务的强劲驱动和整体新订单的显著加速，特别是来自跨国药企（MNC）客户的战略合作深化以及国内需求的强劲复苏。尽管临床服务板块因价格竞争而面临利润率压力，但管理层预计其将在年内持续减亏，并有望在2027年迎来转机。公司维持2026全年收入增长12%-18%的指引，并计划通过增加资本开支来夯实CDMO产能，为后续增长蓄力。综合来看，康龙化成凭借其在CDMO领域的强大竞争力和多元化的客户基础，有望维持高于行业平均的增长水平，当前估值水平提供了较好的投资机会。

中心思想 海外扩张与国内份额提升双轮驱动，联影医疗2025年业绩强劲增长 联影医疗2025年营收同比增长34.0%至138亿元，超预期4%；归母净利润同比增长48.1%至19亿元，展现强劲增长动力。 海外市场成为关键增长引擎，2025年海外营收同比增长51.4%至34亿元，北美、欧洲、亚太等主要区域均实现40%以上高速增长。 国内市场通过产品份额持续提升实现逆势增长，CT、MR、MI、RT等产品新增装机量位居行业第一，MR、RT、PET/CT市占率分别提升6.4、18.1、13.5个百分点。 短期毛利率面临集采、关税及液氦成本上升压力，但高端产品组合优化与服务收入占比提升有望部分抵消负面影响。 基于DCF估值模型，目标价下调至161.04元，维持“买入”评级，但2026-2028年盈利预测因集采和液氦成本压力有所下调。 主要内容 业绩概览：2025年营收与利润双超预期，1Q26收入略低于预期 2025年公司营收同比增长34.0%至138亿元，高于CMBIGM预期4%；归母净利润同比增长48.1%至19亿元。1Q26营收同比增长17.3%至29亿元，略低于预期，仅占全年预测的17%（历史平均水平约20%）。因此，CMBIGM将2026E营收增速预测从25.7%下调至22.5%，但绝对营收预测因2025年基数提高而上调1.4%。 海外扩张：核心增长驱动力，高端产品渗透与服务收入共振 2025年海外营收同比增长51.4%至34亿元，北美（+56%）、欧洲（+50%）、亚太（+41%）均实现强劲增长。 1Q26海外营收延续增长势头，同比增长约27%至约7.1亿元。 增长驱动因素：高端产品（如PET/CT、MR）持续取得进展，全球销售与服务网络不断完善，品牌认知度提升及高端客户渗透率提高。 海外服务收入2025年同比增长约53%，预计2026E海外营收将维持稳健增长。 国内增长：份额提升弥补市场收缩，设备更新项目有望加速 2025年国内营收同比增长29.1%至104亿元，CT、MR、MI、RT等产品新增装机量排名第一。 市占率提升显著：MR（+6.4ppt）、RT（+18.1ppt）、PET/CT（+13.5ppt）。 设备更新项目持续推进，凭借2025年实施经验，预计执行将加速，继续支撑医院采购需求。 但1Q26国内医学影像设备市场同比下降21.1%（据MDDi），考虑到中标与收入确认的时间差，预计2H26E营收面临更严峻的同比基数。 毛利率：短期承压，产品结构优化与服务扩张提供缓冲 2025年/1Q26毛利率同比分别下降1.5ppt/2.8ppt至47.0%/47.2%，主因国内集采、关税及液氦成本上升。 积极因素：2025年混合ASP同比增长超20%，3.0T及以上MR系统收入同比增长超60%，占MR总收入三分之二以上。 服务收入同比增长26%，占总收入12.4%（服务毛利率高于设备销售）。 多元化氦气采购及关键部件自产比例提升，有望进一步支撑毛利率改善。 盈利预测调整：下调2026-2028E盈利，维持买入评级 考虑集采压力与液氦成本上升，下调2026-2028E营收/净利润预测（FY26E营收微调+1.37%，FY28E营收下调-2.20%；FY26E净利润下调-3.91%，FY28E净利润下调-10.67%）。 基于9年期DCF模型（WACC 8.1%，终端增长率4.0%），目标价由162.29元下调至161.04元，当前股价112.35元，潜在上行空间43.3%。 敏感性分析显示，WACC每变动0.5个百分点或终端增长率每变动0.5个百分点，目标价波动区间约在109-310元。 总结 联影医疗2025年业绩强劲，海外营收增长51.4%和国内份额提升是核心驱动力。尽管1Q26国内设备市场出现下滑且集采/成本压力持续，但高端产品占比提升、服务收入扩张以及设备更新项目的推进有望提供增长支撑。CMBIGM下调2026-2028E盈利预测并调降目标价至161.04元，但仍看好公司长期增长前景，维持“买入”评级。