药明康德(603259) 　　WuXi AppTec reported a YoY revenue decline of 2.73%, to RMB39.2bn, and a2.5% decrease in adjusted non-IFRS net profit, to RMB10.6bn. However,earnings showed encouraging improvement throughout 2024, resulting in apositive revenue and profit growth in 4Q24. The TIDES business remained theprimary growth engine, with full-year revenue up by 70.1% YoY. The Company'sbacklog as of year-end 2024 expanded significantly, growing 47% YoY toRMB49.3bn. Notably, TIDES backlog experienced a substantial 103.9% YoYincrease in 2024. Fuelled by robust order book, management offered a positiveoutlook for 2025, forecasting 10-15% YoY revenue growth in continuingoperations and further enhancement of the adjusted non-IFRS net profit margin. 　　Strong order growth bolsters future revenue visibility. WuXi AppTec'sbacklog at end-2024 grew by a significant 47% YoY, reaching RMB49.3bn.This represents an acceleration from the 35.2% growth seen at the end of3Q24. Positive trends were evident across segments. CDMO businesssecured 25 new Ph3 and commercial projects in 2024 (vs 20 added in 2023).Biology segment returned to positive revenue growth in 4Q24, posting YoYand QoQ increases of 9.3% and 9.2%, respectively, signaling an improvingtrend in early-stage R&D demand. Furthermore, revenue from Top20 globalpharma clients rose by 24.1% YoY (excl. COVID related projects), expeditingfrom the 23.1% growth in 9M24. These metrics underscore the increasingvisibility of the Company's future revenue. Given the positive outlook for futuredemand, the Company plans to boost capex by 75%-100% YoY in 2025 toRMB7-8bn. 　　TIDES business sustains strong growth trajectory. TIDES revenue in2024 climbed 70.1% YoY, with backlog expanded by 103.9% YoY. Underlyingdemand for polypeptide manufacturing remains robust in the market. TheCompany's polypeptide capacity reached 41k liters by end-2024, with plansfor a further increase exceeding 100k liters by late 2025, demonstrating WuXiAppTec’s commitment to meeting the growing customer demand. Mgmtanticipates TIDES revenue growth of over 60% YoY in 2025. 　　Ongoing commitment to shareholder returns. Amidst macroeconomicuncertainties in 2024, WuXi AppTec strengthened its commitment toshareholder returns. The Company completed RMB4.0bn in sharerepurchases and cancellations in 2024 and maintained a dividend payoutratio of 30% for the year. To further enhance returns, mgmt announced a onetime special dividend of RMB1.0bn, alongside a 2025 interim dividend. Mgmtalso indicated plans to repurchase RMB1.0bn of A-shares in 2025. 　　Maintain BUY. We raise our TP from RMB78.51 to RMB94.05 (based on a10-year DCF model with WACC of 9.42% and terminal growth of 2.0%), tofactor in the earnings recovery. We forecast the continuing operation revenueto grow by 14.4%/ 15.2%/ 16.3% YoY and adjusted non-IFRS net income togrow by 11.7%/ 19.0%/ +16.1% YoY in 2025E/ 26E/ 27E, respectively. Our2025E/ 26E/ 27E forecasts of adjusted non-IFRS profit are 6.9%/ 14.9%/19.6% higher than consensus.

　　联影医疗(688271) 　　United Imaging’s 9M24 revenue declined by 6.4% YoY to RMB6,954mn, with 3Q24revenue down by 25.0% YoY to RMB1.6bn. This downturn was primarily due to achallenging domestic market environment, marked by stringent industry regulationsand delays in equipment renewal projects. Attributable net profit in 9M24 decreasedby 36.9% YoY to RMB671mn, with net profit margin falling by 4.7 ppts. Despitethese near-term challenges, United Imaging maintained its R&D expenditures andactively pursued expansion in international markets, which impacted profitability inthe third quarter. Looking forward, as the implementation of equipment renewalprojects has gradually picked up pace, United Imaging's revenue and net profitmargins are expected to significantly improve in 2025E, in our view. 　　Robust overseas growth momentum. In 9M24, United Imaging’s overseasrevenue grew 36.5% YoY to RMB1,404mn, accounting for 20.2% (+6.35 ppts)of total revenue. This accelerated growth continued into the third quarter, withrevenues increasing by 51.7% YoY to RMB471mn. Strong performances werenoted across North America, the Asia-Pacific region, and emerging markets. AsUnited Imaging continues to enhance its overseas localization and servicecapabilities, we believe it is poised to strengthen its global competitiveness,better navigate geopolitical challenges, and sustain rapid growth internationally. 　　Strong growth in recurring revenue. In 9M24, revenue from maintenanceservices increased by 27.3% YoY to RMB967mn, accounting for 13.9% (+3.7ppts) of the total revenue. With a global installed base now exceeding 31,000units, United Imaging's service revenue contribution remains lower comparedto global industry leaders like GE Healthcare (32.9% in 2023) and Philips(27.7% in 2023). However, with the expanding installed base and an enhancedglobal service network, we expect United Imaging’s recurring revenue tocontinue its rapid increase, offering resilience against industry fluctuations. 　　Medical equipment renewal projects set to materialize. Mgmt. has notedthat medical equipment renewal projects began implementation in earlyOctober, with multiple procurement activities underway. Additionally, somepreviously delayed equipment procurements, halted due to policy uncertainties,have now restarted. These developments lay the foundation for a recovery inUnited Imaging’s domestic business in 4Q24 and 2025. However, due tostringent industry regulations, the procurement process has become moreprotracted. The installation and revenue recognition timelines for largeequipment are also relatively long. Consequently, the positive impact of thisprocurement rebound is expected to be primarily reflected in 2025, in our view. 　　Maintain BUY. We expect hospital procurement to recover from 2025 and weare optimistic about the Company's long-term growth potential driven by thecontinued import substitution and strengthened global competitiveness.Therefore, we revise up the terminal growth rate forecast from 3.0% to 4.0%.Based on a 9-year DCF model, we adjust the target price to RMB162.81(WACC: 8.3%, terminal growth rate: 4.0%).

　　迈瑞医疗(300760) 　　Mindray reported9M24revenue of RMB29.5bn,up by8.0%YoY.Attributable netprofit increased by8.2%YoY to RMB10.6bn.Revenue in3Q24grew by1.4%YoY to RMB9.0bn while attributable net profit decreased by9.3%YoY toRMB3.1bn.The slowdown in revenue growth can primarily be attributed tolackluster procurement activities in domestic public hospitals and weakeneddemand for IVD testing,particularly in lower-tier hospitals.Consequently,Mindray's domestic revenue fell by9.7%YoY in3Q24.Additionally,GPM in3Q24decreased by4.8pcts QoQ due to updates in accounting guidelines. 　　Domestic market remained under pressure,although signs of recoveryin procurement are emerging.1)IVD:Domestic revenue grew by17%YoYin9M24.Nationwide DRG implementation had a negative impact on thediagnosis demand in lower-tier hospitals which were the main contributors toMindray's domestic IVD revenue.To counter act this,Mindray activelyexpanded its IVD business into top hospitals through its TLA and IT solutions.We expect Mindray to install over150TLAs in2024E.2)MIS:Domesticrevenue grew by over10%YoY in9M24driven by the strong volume ramp-up of ultra-high-end Resona A20ultrasound system.3)PMLS:Domesticrevenue decreased by28%YoY in9M24.The decline was influenced by 　　environment.However,with accelerated issuance of special bonds,andstronger government support to address local debt issues,we expectdomestic equipment demand to recover in2025E. 　　Healthy growth in overseas business.In3Q24,Mindray’s overseasrevenue increased by18.6%YoY with strong performances in Europe(+29%YoY),APAC(+32%YoY)and LatAm(+25%YoY),although there was someweakness in the US market.Driven by breakthroughs in medium-to-largevolume labs,Mindray’s overseas IVD revenue increased by32%YoY in9M24,accounting for28%of total overseas revenue.Mindray hasaccelerated its overseas localization efforts.As of3Q24,Mindray launchedlocal manufacturing in9countries,8of which are related to IVD.Additionally,emerging businesses such as minimally invasive surgery(+50+%YoY),AED(+50+%YoY)and animal medical(+30+%YoY)grew significantly in9M24.These emerging businesses contributed over10%to Mindray’s overseasrevenue.We expect IVD and emerging businesses to become the primarygrowth drivers for Mindray’s overseas businesses. 　　Maintain BUY.We lowered our earnings forecasts with target price adjustedto RMB328.81(WACC:9.3%,terminal growth rate:3.0%).

　　药明康德(603259) 　　WuXi AppTec reported 3Q24 revenue of RMB10.46bn, slightly down 2.0% YoY,and attributable adjusted non-IFRS net profit of RMB2.97bn, down 3.2% YoY.Total non-COVID revenue and non-COVID Chemistry revenue growth reboundedto 14.6% YoY and 26.4% YoY, respectively, in 3Q24. Despite the challenginggeopolitical environment, mgmt. reiterated its revenue guidance of RMB38.3-40.5bn for 2024, indicating 2.7%~8.6% YoY non-COVID revenue growth.Additionally, mgmt. reiterated its commitment to maintaining an adjusted nonIFRS net profit margin consistent with the levels achieved in 2023. 　　Strong global competitiveness led to fast order growth. As of 3Q24, WuXiAppTec's backlog climbed to RMB43.82bn, representing a YoY increase of35.3%, maintaining the encouraging momentum of 33.2% YoY growth(excluding COVID-19 commercial projects) in 1H24. The rapid backloggrowth signified the enduring trust that global clients place in WuXi AppTec'shigh-quality and efficient services. This is further evidenced by a robust 23.1%YoY rise in revenues from global Top 20 pharmaceutical companies in 9M24,a notable acceleration from the 11.9% growth observed in 1H24.Management has indicated that 80% of the backlog is expected to convertinto revenue within the next 12 to 18 months, providing strong earningsvisibility for WuXi AppTec in 4Q24 and throughout 2025, in our view. 　　TIDES continues to exhibit strong growth. TIDES revenue grew by 71.0%YoY in 9M24, with the growth accelerating to 98.6% YoY in 3Q24. The TIDESbacklog as of 3Q24 saw a substantial YoY increase of 196%. In Jan 2024,WuXi AppTec expanded its peptide production capacity from 10k liters to 32kliters, with plans to expand to 41k liters by the end of 2024 and further to 100kliters by 2025. This ambitious expansion underscores WuXi AppTec'scommitment to meeting the rapidly growing global demand for peptideservices, positioning TIDES as the strongest growth driver for the Companythrough 2026. 　　Overseas peers struggle to compete with Chinese chemical CDMOs inthe medium term. In our in-depth report published on 21 Oct 2024, weanalyzed the business fundamentals of 30 companies from Europe, the US,and India engaged in API and chemical CDMO services. The findings revealthat these companies significantly trail WuXi AppTec in terms of businessscale and capacity. Specifically, most Indian peers primarily offer bulk andspecialty APIs, with limited capabilities in supporting innovative drugs R&D.Meanwhile, European firms, despite having an established pharmaceuticalmanufacturing base with several well-known chemical CDMOs, tend to focusmore on formulation instead of API. Their manufacturing sites, primarilylocated in Central and Western Europe, face higher labor costs compared toWuXi AppTec, further disadvantaging them in the competitive market. 　　Maintain BUY. Factoring in the positive trend of customer demand, we lift ourTP from RMB67.72 to RMB72.37 (based on a 10-year DCF model withWACC of 9.42% and terminal growth of 2.0%). We forecast revenue to growby -3.6%/ +11.4%/ +13.6% YoY and adjusted non-IFRS net income to growby -3.9%/ +11.9%/ +15.5% YoY in 2024E/ 25E/ 26E, respectively.

　　迈瑞医疗(300760) 　　Mindray achieved a revenue of RMB20.5bn in 1H24, marking an 11.1% increaseYoY, and reported an attributable net profit of RMB7.6bn, up 17.4% YoY. Despite theongoing regulatory adjustments in the healthcare industry and the delay in medicalequipment renewals projects, which have led to a cautious approach towards biddingand procurement activities in public hospitals, the revenue from domestic equipmentbusiness decreased by 12% YoY. However, thanks to the rapid growth of the IVDbusiness and the domestic high-end/ultra-high-end ultrasound business, Mindray stilldemonstrated strong resilience and steady growth. The increase in the revenue sharefrom IVD reagents and high-end ultrasounds drove the Company's gross margin upby 0.7 ppt YoY to 66.3% in 1H24. Additionally, Mindray announced a mid-termdividend plan, distributing a total cash dividend of approximately RMB4.9bn, whichrepresents a payout ratio of more than 65%, indicating an ongoing increase in thedividend payout. 　　Domestic equipment business faces pressure. In 1H24, the continued delayin bidding and procurement activities led to a 12% YoY decrease in revenue fromdomestic equipment business. Due to the high market share of Mindray's PatientMonitoring and Life Support (PMLS) products in China, the domestic businesswas significantly affected by the industry environment, with the PMLS segmentexperiencing a 7.6% YoY decrease in revenue, including about a 20% drop indomestic revenue. The Medical Imaging segment benefited from the volumeincrease of the first domestic ultra-high-end ultrasound Resona A20 and otherhigh-end ultrasounds, resulting in a 15.5% YoY revenue growth in this segment,with high-end and ultra-high-end ultrasound revenues increasing by over 40%. 　　Accelerating the shift towards consumables-related business. In 1H24, theIVD reagent business was minimally affected by domestic industry regulation,with revenue increasing by 28% YoY to RMB7.7bn, accounting for over 37% oftotal revenue. Domestic IVD revenue grew by over 25%, and domestic reagentrevenue increased by 30%, with reagent revenue representing over 80% ofdomestic IVD revenue. Internationally, Mindray successfully penetrated over 60overseas third-party chain laboratories in 1H24 and installed the first MT 8000TLA, driving a more than 30% YoY increase in overseas IVD revenue. We believethat the continuous increase in domestic diagnostic demand and theimplementation of IVD VBP are expected to help Mindray rapidly expand itsdomestic market share, while accelerated cooperation with high-end clients willsupport long-term rapid growth of the IVD overseas market. Additionally, theminimally invasive surgery business grew by 90% YoY in 1H24. The Company’sacquisition of APT Medical also filled the gap in its cardiovascular consumablesbusiness. Currently, consumables-related businesses led by IVD already accountfor over 50% of the Company’s domestic revenue. 　　Maintain BUY. We believe that industry regulation has not affected the essentialdemand for hospital procurement. As industry regulation becomes normalizedand equipment renewal policies are implemented, hospital procurement isexpected to gradually recover. Based on a 9-year DCF model, we adjust thetarget price to RMB 352.84 (WACC: 10.3%, perpetual growth rate: 3.0%).

　　联影医疗(688271) 　　United Imaging reported 1H24 revenue of RMB5,333mn, up by 1.2% YoY.Attributable net profit increased by 1.3% YoY to RMB950mn. Despite facing achallenging domestic market environment characterized by stringent industryregulations and delays in equipment renewal projects, United Imaging deliveredresilient performance thanks to the rapid growth of overseas business andmaintenance services. The rising revenue contribution from mid-to-high-endproducts and services drove the company's gross margin up by 1.7ppts YoY to50.4% in 1H24. Additionally, United Imaging announced an interim dividend plan,committed to distributing a total cash dividend of approximately RMB98.2mn, whichrepresents a more than 10% payout ratio. 　　Market share expanded in domestic medical equipment market. In 1H24,United Imaging’s equipment revenue decreased by 1.8% YoY toRMB4,540mn, primarily due to the delays in procurement activities. However,leveraging its product innovation and new product commercialization, thecompany’s high-end and ultra-high-end products gained market share. Forinstance, the market share of mid-to-high-end and ultra-high-end CT systemincreased by 11ppts YoY and 8ppts YoY, respectively. Its 3.0T MRI systemsalso gained 1.3ppts in market share of 3.0T MRI market. The companycontinues to hold a significant lead in ultra-high-filed MRI market with its 5.0TMRI system and saw a 5.3ppts YoY increase in market share of RT systems. 　　International operations sustained strong growth momentum. In 1H24,the company's overseas business achieved revenue of RMB933mn, up 29.9%YoY, accounting for 17.5% (+3.9ppts) of total revenue. The company deliveredrobust performance in Asia-Pacific, North America, and emerging markets,where revenues grew over 40% YoY, 26% YoY, and 132% YoY, respectively.Despite a 30% decrease in revenue from Europe due to seasonal fluctuations,efforts aimed at localizing operations in key European markets such as France,Italy, Germany, and Spain are anticipated to drive recovery in 2H24. 　　Growing contribution from services. In 1H24, revenue from maintenanceservices increased by 23.8% YoY to RMB617mn, accounting for 11.6%(+2.1ppts YoY) of the total revenue. Currently, United Imaging’s global installedbase has exceeded 20,000 units. With a growing installed base, we expect theservices revenue will continue to increase rapidly. 　　Maintain BUY. We expect hospital procurement to gradually recover from4Q24. Based on a 9-year DCF model, we adjust the target price to RMB 125.83(WACC: 8.8%, perpetual growth rate: 3.0%).

　　药明康德(603259) 　　WuXi AppTec reported 1H24 revenue of RMB17.24bn, down 8.6% YoY,attributable recurring net profit of RMB4.41bn, down 8.3% YoY, and attributableadjusted non-IFRS net profit of RMB4.37bn, down 14.2% YoY. 1H24 revenue /attributable adjusted non-IFRS net income accounted for 45.3%/ 46.0% of our2024 full-year estimates and 43.8%/ 44.7% of Bloomberg consensus, both ofwhich were largely in line with its historical range. The non-COVID D&M revenue(within the Chemistry segment) experienced a slight decline of 2.7% YoY in1H24, following a relatively high base in 1H23. Notably, WuXi AppTec’s backlog,excluding COVID-19 commercial projects, increased by 33.2% YoY in 1H24,indicating strong customer demand amid geopolitical uncertainties. Mgt. hasreiterated its revenue guidance of RMB38.3-40.5bn for 2024, forecasting YoYgrowth of 2.7% to 8.6% for revenues excluding COVID-19 commercial projects.Mgt. expects the adjusted non-IFRS net profit margin to align with the 2023level. 　　Impressive order growth driven by solid demand. As of June 2024, WuXiAppTec's backlog reached RMB43.1bn, marking a robust YoY increase of33.2% excluding COVID-19 commercial projects. Revenue from its globalTop20 pharmaceutical clients reached RMB6.59bn, contributing 38.2% ofthe total revenue and increasing by 11.9% YoY excluding COVID-19commercial projects. Mgt. highlighted that over 80% of the backlog wasexpected to convert into revenue within the next 18 months, which shouldalleviate market concerns about clients' early bookings due to geopoliticalconsiderations (with the ATU segment being an exception). Additionally,mgt. indicated that new orders signed in 1H24 increased by ~25% YoY. Thestrong order growth demonstrates the resilient demand for WuXi AppTec'shigh-quality services, indicating a positive outlook for FY25 growth. 　　TIDES business continued to be a major growth engine. Revenue ofTIDES business reached RMB2.08bn in 1H24, demonstrating robust YoYgrowth of 57.2%, following a significant 64.4% YoY increase in 2023. As ofJune 2024, the TIDES backlog grew substantially by 147% YoY. In January2024, the Company’s new peptide production facilities commencedoperation, which expanded its total capacity to 32,000 liters, positioning theCompany as a leader in global TIDES CDMO. With the robust backlog andreadily available production capacity, mgt. expects TIDES revenue to growby over 60% YoY in 2024 and to maintain the strong momentum in 2025.Our model projects TIDES revenue to exceed RMB8.6bn in 2025,contributing ~20% to WuXi AppTec’s total revenue, a significant increasefrom ~4% in 2022. 　　Maintain BUY. Factoring in the positive trend of customer demand, we liftour TP from RMB53.23 to RMB54.27 (based on a 10-year DCF model withWACC of 10.38% and terminal growth of 2.0%). We forecast revenue togrow by -4.4%/ +10.9%/ +10.8% YoY and adjusted non-IFRS net income togrow by -8.3%/ +11.6%/ +12.1% YoY in 2024E/ 25E/ 26E, respectively

# 中心思想 * **业绩表现与挑战：** 药明康德(603259 CH)2024年第一季度业绩稳健，营收同比下降11.0%，但经调整的非IFRS净利润同比下降18.3%。尽管面临挑战，公司维持了全年营收指引，并预计调整后的非IFRS净利润率将与2023年持平。 * **业务增长点：** TIDES业务持续成为重要的增长驱动力，收入和未完成订单均保持强劲增长势头。临床CRO&SMO业务也呈现温和复苏态势。 * **客户关系与地缘政治风险：** 公司新增客户数量与去年同期持平，全球Top 20药企的收入有所增长。然而，Biosecure Act草案对公司在美国市场获取新客户和订单产生了一定影响。 * **投资评级调整：** 考虑到地缘政治风险带来的不确定性，将目标价从人民币67.53元下调至人民币53.23元，但维持“买入”评级。 # 主要内容 ## 1Q24 业绩回顾：营收下降但维持全年指引 药明康德(603259 CH)公布了2024年第一季度的业绩，营收为人民币79.82亿元，同比下降11.0%。归属于公司的经常性净利润为人民币20.34亿元，同比增长7.3%。经调整的非IFRS净利润为人民币19.13亿元，同比下降18.3%。一季度营收和经调整的非IFRS净利润分别占我们全年预测的20.4%和16.8%，均略低于历史区间。非IFRS毛利率下降2.3个百分点至38.7%，非IFRS净利润率下降2.1个百分点至24.0%，主要由于COVID商业项目CDMO收入下降、定价侵蚀、测试和生物业务部门新设施的启动以及ATU部门成本上升。非COVID D&M收入（在药明化学业务部门）在2024年第一季度实现了正增长，同比增长1.2%。尽管2024年开局充满挑战，但管理层坚持其2024年营收指引为人民币383-405亿元，预计同比增长2.7%-8.6%（不包括COVID-19商业项目收入）。此外，管理层重申，经调整的非IFRS净利润率将与2023年持平。 ## TIDES 业务：显著增长驱动力 TIDES业务继续成为重要的增长驱动力。2024年第一季度，TIDES业务收入同比增长43.1%，未完成订单同比增长110%。收入和未完成订单均保持了2023年的强劲势头。管理层预计TIDES业务在2024年将实现60%的收入增长。此外，新增的22,000升固相肽合成器已于2024年1月投入运营，使总产能达到32,000升。目前正计划在江苏泰兴扩大新的肽生产能力，以满足强劲的客户需求。 ## 临床 CRO&SMO 业务：温和复苏 临床CRO&SMO业务呈现温和复苏态势。2024年第一季度，临床CRO&SMO业务收入同比增长11.0%，其中SMO收入同比增长26.4%。这一增长与国内几家临床CRO&SMO公司在2023年和2024年第一季度报告的上升趋势一致。预计中国临床阶段药物研发的需求将引领复苏，与海外市场自2023年第一季度以来的复苏模式相似。 ## 客户关系：稳固但面临地缘政治不确定性 尽管存在不确定性，药明康德的客户关系依然稳固。2024年第一季度，公司新增客户超过300家，与2023年第一季度持平。令人鼓舞的是，来自全球Top 20制药公司的收入达到人民币27亿元（约占总收入的34%），同比增长4.2%（不包括COVID-19商业项目）。然而，管理层承认，Biosecure Act草案已开始影响药明ATU在美国市场获取新客户和订单。 ## 盈利预测与估值调整：下调目标价但维持买入评级 考虑到地缘政治风险带来的不确定性，我们将目标价从人民币67.53元下调至人民币53.23元（基于10年期DCF模型，WACC为10.73%，永续增长率为2.0%）。我们预测2024E/25E/26E的营收将分别同比下降5.6%/增长10.0%/增长12.5%，经调整的非IFRS净利润将分别同比下降12.4%/增长10.5%/增长16.4%。 # 总结 * **业绩与展望：** 药明康德一季度业绩受到挑战，但公司维持全年营收指引，并看好TIDES业务和临床CRO&SMO业务的增长潜力。 * **风险与应对：** 地缘政治风险对公司在美国市场业务产生影响，公司需积极应对。 * **投资建议：** 尽管下调目标价，但维持“买入”评级，反映了对公司长期发展前景的信心。

# 中心思想 * **一季度业绩符合预期：** 剔除新冠疫苗相关收入后，一季度收入与去年同期持平，盈利能力受成本控制措施推动有所改善。 * **需求显著复苏：** 一季度新签订单恢复至双位数增长，且增长趋势延续至四月，主要受益于跨国药企和国内药企订单的增加。 * **维持买入评级：** 考虑到盈利预测的放缓和需求复苏步伐的不确定性，将目标价从68.57人民币下调至66.82人民币，但维持买入评级。 # 主要内容 ## 公司更新 * **一季度业绩回顾：** * 2024年一季度，泰格医药实现营收16.6亿元人民币，同比下降8.0%；归属于母公司股东的经常性净利润为3.03亿元人民币，同比下降20.5%。 * 营收和归母经常性净利润分别占全年预估的19.8%和18.0%，与疫情前平均水平基本一致。 * 剔除新冠疫苗相关收入后，一季度营收与去年同期持平。 * 毛利率为37.8%，环比显著提升5.0个百分点，主要得益于持续的成本管理措施以及实验室服务毛利率的环比改善。 * 管理层预计，若剔除新冠疫苗相关收入，一季度毛利率为38.5%，与上一季度持平。 * 管理层目标是，考虑到合同收入加速转化和成本控制措施，二季度归母经常性净利润环比增长25-30%。 * **需求复苏：** * 管理层表示，一季度新签订单恢复至双位数增长，3月份的增长速度较1月和2月有所加快，且增长趋势延续至4月。 * 跨国药企和国内药企的订单占比显著增加，来自美国和澳大利亚的订单依然强劲。 * 受益于生物技术融资的复苏，国内生物技术公司的订单也出现复苏迹象。 * 泰格医药的BD团队将继续专注于探索来自跨国药企和国内药企的机遇。 * **成本控制：** * 泰格医药计划继续控制SG&A费用并优化毛利率。 * 管理层指出，凭借其轻资产业务模式，泰格医药在成本控制方面拥有充足的杠杆，例如，提高分散式临床试验（DCT）平台的使用率（约20%的项目使用，而2023年底约为17%），建立特定治疗领域的综合团队，并根据需要重新分配部门人员。 * **全球化战略：** * 在全球市场，泰格医药的战略是服务于目标全球市场的中国公司，以及难以获得国际CRO服务的海外本地客户。 * 公司已在美国招聘了本地BD团队，目前正在与美国本地客户进行多个项目。 * 泰格医药计划进一步扩大在美国和印度的团队规模，以加强其全球运营。 * **盈利预测与估值：** * 基于10年期DCF模型（WACC：10.95%，终值增长率：2.0%），将目标价从68.57人民币下调至66.82人民币，以反映盈利预测的放缓和需求复苏步伐的不确定性。 * 预计泰格医药2024E/25E/26E的营收将同比增长11.3%/16.2%/20.6%，归母经常性净利润将同比增长11.9%/20.8%/25.6%。 ## 盈利预测调整 * **盈利预测下调：** * 2024E/25E/26E的营收、毛利润、营业利润和调整后净利润均有不同程度的下调。 * 其中，2026E的营收下调幅度最大，为-4.10%。 * **与市场一致预期对比：** * CMBIGM对2024E/25E/26E的营收和毛利润预测低于市场一致预期。 * CMBIGM对2024E/25E/26E的营业利润和调整后净利润预测显著低于市场一致预期，其中2024E的调整后净利润预测低24.43%。 ## 估值 * **DCF估值模型：** * 采用风险调整的DCF估值模型，得出每股价格为66.82人民币。 * 模型关键参数包括WACC（10.95%）和终值增长率（2.00%）。 * **敏感性分析：** * 对WACC和终值增长率进行敏感性分析，显示目标价格对这两个参数的变化较为敏感。 ## 财务概要 * **主要财务指标：** * 提供了2021A至2026E的详细财务报表，包括利润表、资产负债表和现金流量表。 * 关键指标包括营收、净利润、资产、负债、现金流等。 * **增长率与盈利能力：** * 分析了2021A至2026E的营收增长率、毛利率、营业利润率和净利润率等指标。 * 显示公司未来几年将保持稳定增长和盈利能力。 * **估值指标：** * 提供了2021A至2026E的P/E、P/B、P/CFPS和股息率等估值指标。 # 总结 本报告对泰格医药2024年一季度业绩进行了分析，指出公司业绩符合预期，需求正在复苏，并维持买入评级。报告详细分析了公司的财务状况、盈利能力和估值，并对未来的业绩进行了预测。尽管下调了目标价，但仍看好公司未来的发展前景。

# 中心思想 本报告主要分析了欧盟可能对中国医疗器械采购发起IPI调查对迈瑞医疗的影响，并重申了对迈瑞医疗“买入”的评级。 * **IPI调查影响有限：** 报告认为，IPI调查的主要目的是促进国际市场的互惠准入，而非造成双方损失。同时，考虑到迈瑞医疗在欧洲的营收占比不高，且没有超过EUR5mn的欧盟招标项目，因此IPI调查对迈瑞医疗的直接影响有限。 * **维持“买入”评级：** 报告维持对迈瑞医疗的目标价RMB383.43，基于9年期DCF模型（WACC：9.0%，永续增长率：3.0%）。同时，报告指出迈瑞医疗在欧美以外市场仍有巨大的扩张潜力。 # 主要内容 ## 国际采购工具（IPI）法规 * **IPI法规的定义：** IPI法规旨在解决第三国公共采购中的市场保护问题。如果非欧盟国家的行为反复损害欧盟企业进入其采购市场的机会，欧盟委员会可以发起调查。 * **IPI法规的应对措施：** 调查启动后，欧盟委员会将邀请相关第三国进行磋商，以消除或补救任何限制性做法。如果第三国采取令人满意的纠正措施，调查可以随时暂停。否则，欧盟委员会将采取IPI措施，如调整评分或排除投标。 ## IPI法规的影响 * **对跨国医疗器械公司的影响：** 中国是全球医疗器械企业的重要市场。许多跨国公司在中国设立工厂，并遵守国内生产医疗器械的规定，以便参与中国政府采购。 * **对迈瑞医疗的影响：** 迈瑞医疗来自欧洲的收入占其2023年上半年的总收入的5.9%，比例相对较小。此外，迈瑞医疗没有超过500万欧元的欧盟个人招标项目。 ## 盈利预测和估值 * **盈利预测：** 报告对迈瑞医疗未来几年的营收和净利润进行了预测，预计2023年至2025年营收分别为356.54亿元、428.17亿元和513.66亿元人民币，归母净利润分别为116.11亿元、138.64亿元和165.79亿元人民币。 * **估值分析：** 维持目标价RMB383.43，基于9年期DCF模型（WACC：9.0%，永续增长率：3.0%）。 ## 财务摘要 * **财务数据：** 报告提供了迈瑞医疗2020A-2025E的详细财务报表，包括利润表、资产负债表和现金流量表，以及关键财务指标的分析，如增长率、盈利能力、杠杆率、流动性和估值等。 # 总结 本报告分析了欧盟可能对中国医疗器械采购发起IPI调查对迈瑞医疗的影响，认为影响有限。报告维持对迈瑞医疗“买入”的评级，目标价为RMB383.43，并指出公司在欧美以外市场仍有扩张潜力。报告还提供了详细的财务数据和预测，为投资者提供了参考。