联影医疗(688271) 　　United Imaging (UIH) reported strong 9M25 results, with revenue of RMB8.9bn(+27% YoY), reaching 69% of our prior full-year estimate and exceeding thehistorical average of ~65%. The sharp 75% YoY revenue growth in 3Q25 wasdriven by a significant recovery in domestic equipment procurement, sustainedoverseas growth momentum, and a low base in 3Q24. Domestic demandremained solid, with the value of medical imaging tenders up by 55% YoY in 3Q25,according to Joinchain. Overseas growth was supported by strong order intakeand improved order-to-revenue conversion. Therefore, we raise our 2025Erevenue forecast to RMB13.3bn, implying 28.8% YoY growth. 　　Robust performance of high-end portfolios. UIH’s domestic revenue grew24% YoY to RMB6.9bn in 9M25, driven by procurement recovery and marketshare gain of over 4ppts. High-end products remained a key growth driver. 1)MR revenue grew 40% YoY, with notable share gains in 5T (+ ~52ppts) and3T (+over 4ppts). 2) CT revenue increased 8% YoY with high-end CT up ~30%YoY. We expect photon-counting CT uCT Ultima and uCT Siriux to furtherstrengthen UIH’s position in the high-end CT market. 3) MI revenue rose 22%YoY with PET/CT maintaining its decade-long leading position in China. uMIPanorama has contributed ~40% of MI revenue. 4) XR and RT both delivereddouble-digit growth with continued share gains. The increasing revenuecontribution from mid- to high-end products is expected to offset marginpressures from lower-end portfolios. Moreover, the upcoming launch of acomprehensive ultrasound portfolio in Nov 2025 should further support UIH’s“diagnosis-to-treatment” strategy and high-end imaging leadership, in ourview. 　　Overseas business maintained strong momentum. Overseas revenuerose 42% to RMB2.0bn, representing 22.5% (+2.3ppts) of total revenue in9M25. Revenue in North America grew by over 50% YoY to ~RMB700mn in9M, with US service revenue up 80%+ YoY on the back of an expandinginstalled base. A diversified supply chain and proactive inventory managementhelped mitigate tariff pressure, while recurring service revenue may enhancelong-term resilience. European revenue more than doubled YoY to overRMB400mn in 9M. Notably, uMI Panorama GS and uMI Panvivo havepenetrated into the high-end market in Western Europe. Asia-Pacific andemerging markets also delivered double-digit growth. Management indicatedrobust overseas order intake. With stronger sales conversion from orders, weexpect overseas growth to remain solid in 4Q25E. 　　Maintain BUY. Considering the rapid domestic recovery in 2025E and strongoverseas growth momentum, we raise our forecasts of 2025–2027E revenueCAGR from 22.6% to 24.1%. Based on a 9-year DCF model (WACC: 8.1%,terminal growth: 4.0%), we raise our target price to RMB162.29

　　药明康德(603259) 　　WuXi AppTec reported strong 3Q25 results, with revenue increasing by 15.3%YoY (including 19.7% YoY growth for continuing operations) and adj. non-IFRSnet profit surging by 42.0% YoY. Revenue from continuing operations in 9M25accounted for 73.8% of our full-year forecast, in line with historical average of72%, while adj. non-IFRS net profit in 9M25 represented 85.7% of our full-yearforecast, significant higher than the historical average of 72%. WuXi AppTecdelivered strong operational execution, despite ongoing macro uncertainties. Assuch, mgmt. further raised its full-year guidance for 2025, expecting total revenueto be RMB43.5-44.0bn (previously: RMB42.5-43.5bn) with revenue fromcontinuing operations to grow by 17-18% (previously: 13-17%). Mgmt. continuedto expect adj. non-IFRS net profit margin to expand in 2025. 　　Encouraging demand growth in small molecule D&M business. As ofSept 2025, WuXi AppTec’s backlog from continuing operations reached RMB59.88bn with a strong YoY growth of 41.2%, accelerated from 37.2% YoY asof Jun 2025. In contrast, backlog for TIDES services grew by 17.1% YoY asat end-Sept 2025, slowing from 48.8% YoY seen as at end-Jun 2025. Thedivergence underscored the small molecule D&M business as a primarygrowth driver for backlog in 3Q25. With that, mgmt. expected acceleratedrevenue growth for this segment in 2026. Mgmt. noted that the Company’spipeline included multiple promising products targeting areas such as GLP-1, PCSK9, pain, neurology, and autoimmune diseases. Given that smallmolecule D&M accounted for 46% of total revenue in 2024, we believe it willbecome a key driver for the Company’s overall growth. To meet the risingcustomer demand, WuXi AppTec is actively expanding manufacturingcapacity in China, Singapore, the US, and Switzerland. 　　Early-stage demand showing more signs of recovery, though a fullrebound will take time. In the Chemistry segment, revenue from drugdiscovery services declined 2.0% YoY in 3Q25, though sequential QoQimprovements were seen. Notably, the safety assessment services posted5.9% YoY and 13.2% QoQ revenue growth in 3Q25, a significant reboundfrom the 7.8% decline in 2Q25, suggesting a recovery in client demand andimproved pricing dynamics. Within the Biology segment, revenue grew 5.9%YoY in the quarter, consistent with the pace observed in 1H25. Mgmt.indicated that early signs of demand recovery are emerging, supported by arebound in China’s capital markets, robust global BD activity, and US interestrate cuts. However, a broad-based industry recovery will still take time. Giventhe high sensitivity to macroeconomic conditions, we believe early-stagebusinesses within WuXi AppTec should have relatively high visibility over thenext two years, as market conditions normalize. 　　Maintain BUY. We raise our DCF-based TP from RMB118.79 to RMB123.35(WACC: 9.39%, terminal growth: 2.00%; both unchanged), to factor in ourimproved outlook on the macro environment. We now expect revenue to growby 12.8%/ 10.7%/ 14.2% YoY (for continuing operations: 18.0%/ 15.0%/14.2% YoY) and adjusted non-IFRS net profit to grow by 19.6%/ 10.2%/13.3% YoY in 2025E/ 26E/ 27E, respectively.

　　药明康德(603259) 　　WuXi AppTec reported better-than-expected 1H25 results, with revenueincreasing by 20.6% YoY (including 24.2% YoY growth for continuing operations)and adj. non-IFRS net profit surging by 44.4% YoY. Revenue from continuingoperations and adj. non-IFRS net profit accounted for 47.5% and 54.4%,respectively, of our full-year forecasts, both higher than the historical ranges.WuXi AppTec delivered strong operational execution, despite ongoing macrouncertainties. As such, mgmt. raised its full-year guidance for 2025, expectingrevenue of continuing operations to grow by 13-17% (vs prior guidance of 10-15%) and adj. non-IFRS net profit margin to expand in 2025. 　　Robust commercial demand drives CDMO outperformance. The robustdemand for late-stage clinical and commercial manufacturing has been a keygrowth driver for the global CXO industry in the post-COVID era. As a globalleader in the chemical drug CDMO sector, WuXi AppTec has substantiallybenefited from this trend. In 1H25, its TIDES revenue surged by 141.6% YoYthanks to faster-than-expected manufacturing capacity ramp-up. Mgmt raisedits full-year guidance for TIDEs revenue growth from 60% to 80%. Revenuefrom small molecule D&M grew by 17.5% YoY, marking a notable reboundfrom the negative growth seen in 2023/2024. In addition, the volatilities in USChina tariffs seemed to have limited impact to the Company’s first halfoperation, in our view. Despite ongoing volatility in the global macroenvironment, we believe that the sustained demand for commercial drugmanufacturing is likely to continue, supporting the growth of leading CDMOplayers like WuXi AppTec. 　　Expanding global capacity to support long-term growth. As of end-1H25,WuXi AppTec’s backlog impressively grew by 37.2% YoY, with backlog ofTIDES increasing even more strongly at 48.8% YoY. The mgmt. reiteratedtheir plan to increase the Company’s peptide capacity to over 100k liters bythe end of 2025 to support the demand from both existing commercialprojects and growing pipelines. At the same time, capacity expansion effortsare underway at multiple sites, including Changzhou (China), Singapore, theUS and Switzerland. WuXi AppTec has reaffirmed its capex target of RMB7–8bn in 2025, and anticipated possible increases in capex in the coming years. 　　Recovery in early-stage R&D still takes time. While revenue from earlystage R&D services showed sequential improvements in 1H25 over 2024,mgmt. viewed that a meaningful recovery in early-stage R&D demand willtake time. Early-stage R&D services contribute ~30% of the Company’s totalrevenue. The global biotech financing usually serves as an early indicator ofearly-stage R&D demand. 　　Maintain BUY. We raise our DCF-based TP from RMB77.22 to RMB116.56(WACC: 9.42%, terminal growth: 2.00%; both unchanged), to factor in theupgraded guidance and the improved macro environment such as the USChina tariff. We now expect revenue from continuing operations to grow by16.0%/ 15.9%/ 15.8% YoY and adjusted non-IFRS net profit to grow by16.2%/ 17.6%/ 16.4% YoY in 2025E/ 26E/ 27E, respectively

中心思想 海外与新兴业务驱动增长，国内业务有望触底反弹 迈瑞医疗2026年第一季度业绩符合预期，营收83.5亿元（同比+1.4%），归母净利润23亿元（同比-11.3%）。增长动力主要来自海外市场（营收占比53%，同比+15.7%），其中欧洲市场增速超过25%，新兴市场恢复至15%增长。国内业务受渠道去库存影响同比下降11.1%，但IVD份额持续提升（从1H25的10%升至1Q26的13%），新兴业务（同比+18.2%）占比达23%，预计2026年全年国内将恢复正增长。 业务结构向耗材与持续收入转型，维持买入评级 新兴业务（IVD新兴业务等）营收14亿元，同比+18.2%，占海外收入约40%、国内收入超70%，显示公司正稳步转向耗材驱动的经常性收入模式。基于DCF估值（WACC 9.1%，终端增长率3.0%），目标价204.54元，当前股价161.11元，潜在上涨空间27.0%，维持买入评级。 主要内容 海外市场：欧洲与新兴市场领跑，产品线全面扩张 欧洲市场：高端客户渗透加速 欧洲营收同比增长超25%，英国、法国、德国、意大利等核心市场表现强劲，高端医院账户渗透率提升明显。 新兴市场：印度与墨西哥实现30%+增长 新兴市场整体恢复15%增长，印度和墨西哥增速均超30%。 产品线：IVD、PMLS、影像全面增长 海外IVD同比增长超20%，PMLS增长15%，医学影像增长超10%。 预计2026年加深本地化布局和高端客户突破将继续驱动海外增长。 国内市场：短期承压但IVD份额提升，新兴业务成为新支撑 渠道去库存拖累设备业务 国内营收同比下降11.1%至39亿元，主因PMLS和MIS渠道去库存。但这两类设备业务占国内收入不足30%，影响可控。 IVD：集采压力下仍实现10%增长，份额跃升至13% 国内CLIA营收同比增长约10%，受益于大型医院账户渗透加深，核心IVD品类份额从1H25的10%升至1Q26的13%。 MT8000 TLA系统装机超80台 1Q26完成超80台MT8000全实验室自动化系统安装，后续将拉动试剂消耗。 新兴业务：同比增18.2%，占比达23% 国内新兴业务（如IVD新兴业务）同比增长超18%，占国内营收23%，成为重要增长极。 展望：2026E国内营收预计恢复正增长 低基数效应、IVD份额提升及新兴业务持续增长将推动国内业务在2026年回正。 新兴业务：快速增长，收入结构持续优化 新兴业务总营收14亿元，同比+18.2%。 IVD与新兴业务合计占海外收入近40%，占国内收入超70%，凸显公司向耗材及经常性收入模式转型的成效。 估值与评级：维持买入，目标价204.54元 维持FY26-28E盈利预测，基于9年DCF模型（WACC 9.1%，终端增长率3.0%），目标价204.54元。 当前PE（FY26E）24.3倍，低于历史中枢，具有估值吸引力。 风险提示：国内设备去库存超预期、汇率波动、地缘政治风险。 总结 迈瑞医疗1Q26业绩符合预期，海外市场（尤其是欧洲和新兴市场）维持高增长，国内业务虽受渠道去库存压制但IVD份额和新兴业务表现亮眼，预计全年国内恢复正增长。公司正加速向耗材驱动的经常性收入模式转型，新兴业务占比持续提升。基于稳定的盈利前景和DCF估值，当前股价具备较高安全边际，维持买入评级，目标价204.54元（上涨空间27%）。

中心思想 康龙化成1Q26业绩强劲开局，CDMO服务成核心增长引擎 康龙化成2026年第一季度业绩表现强劲，实现营收人民币35.8亿元，同比增长15.5%；经调整非IFRS归母净利润达人民币4.06亿元，同比增长16.2%。收入与净利润均基本符合全年预期的历史正常区间，展现了公司稳健的业务运营能力。 订单增长显著加速，1Q26新订单同比增长超30%，远超2025年全年14%的同比增速。增长动力主要来源于四个方面：1）与跨国药企（MNC）客户战略合作深化，1Q26来自全球前20大药企的收入同比增长47.98%；2）国内需求复苏，中国客户收入同比增长43.4%，同时公司在新药授权（out-licensing）趋势中扮演关键角色；3）新分子实体（new modalities）持续快速放量；4）小分子CDMO领域签订重大药品（DP）合同，以及管线项目向后期推进。 主要内容 业绩亮点：营收与利润双位数增长，符合预期 1Q26营收人民币35.8亿元，同比增长15.5%，占全年预测的21.8%。经调整非IFRS归母净利润人民币4.06亿元，同比增长16.2%，占全年预测的18.8%。收入和利润节奏与历史同期区间基本一致，表明公司业绩兑现能力良好。 管理层维持2026年全年营收增长12%-18%的指引，与新订单强劲增长态势相呼应。公司对未来增长保持信心，预测2026E/27E/28E营收同比增速分别为16.5%/16.2%/14.9%，经调整净利润增速分别为18.8%/17.8%/16.1%。 CDMO需求旺盛：小分子CDMO增长领跑，大单落地助力扩张 小分子CDMO业务表现最为突出，1Q26实现营收人民币8.66亿元，同比增长25.0%，显著高于其他业务板块。该增长主要得益于1Q26与礼来（Eli Lilly）签订的口服小分子GLP-1药物Orforglipron的商业化DP合同，以及管线项目向后期阶段的推进。 公司每年服务超过1,000个项目，广泛覆盖有前景的靶点和分子，为未来获取大规模生产订单奠定基础。鉴于当前产能利用率高企，公司将继续推进绍兴基地PhII建设，并规划新的产能扩张。管理层预计2026年资本开支约人民币30亿元（同比增长12.4%），战略重点聚焦于提升CDMO后期项目和新技术产能。基于当前需求和产能规划，管理层预计小分子CDMO业务未来几年将持续超越公司整体增速。 临床服务：亏损收窄，价格压力边际改善 1Q26临床服务收入同比增长11.8%，较2025年全年7.1%的增速有所提升。然而，该板块毛利率为7.1%，同比下降4.7个百分点，主要受收入结构变化和国内市场竞争性定价影响。 新订单方面，SMO（临床试验现场管理）定价已出现恢复迹象，CRO（合同研究组织）价格压力较去年也有所缓解。但由于临床项目转化周期较长，公司仍在执行去年签订的低价订单。管理层预计该板块2026年全年仍将处于亏损收窄阶段，随着高价订单逐步转化为收入，明年业绩有望改善。 投资建议与估值：维持买入评级，DCF目标价人民币39元 报告维持对康龙化成的“买入”评级，基于DCF估值模型的目标价维持于人民币39元（WACC为9.32%，终值增长率为2.0%）。该目标价较当前股价人民币29.75元提供约31.1%的上行空间。 盈利预测显示，公司2026E/27E/28E经调整每股收益（EPS）分别为人民币1.17元/1.38元/1.61元，对应经调整市盈率（P/E）分别为25.3倍/21.5倍/18.5倍。与彭博一致预期相比，CMBIGM对未来净利润的预测在2026E和2027E略高（+4.99%和+1.00%），而在2028E则低于一致预期（-5.02%），体现了对公司中期增长趋势的审慎乐观判断。 总结 康龙化成2026年第一季度报告的核心亮点在于小分子CDMO业务的强劲驱动和整体新订单的显著加速，特别是来自跨国药企（MNC）客户的战略合作深化以及国内需求的强劲复苏。尽管临床服务板块因价格竞争而面临利润率压力，但管理层预计其将在年内持续减亏，并有望在2027年迎来转机。公司维持2026全年收入增长12%-18%的指引，并计划通过增加资本开支来夯实CDMO产能，为后续增长蓄力。综合来看，康龙化成凭借其在CDMO领域的强大竞争力和多元化的客户基础，有望维持高于行业平均的增长水平，当前估值水平提供了较好的投资机会。

中心思想 海外扩张与国内份额提升双轮驱动，联影医疗2025年业绩强劲增长 联影医疗2025年营收同比增长34.0%至138亿元，超预期4%；归母净利润同比增长48.1%至19亿元，展现强劲增长动力。 海外市场成为关键增长引擎，2025年海外营收同比增长51.4%至34亿元，北美、欧洲、亚太等主要区域均实现40%以上高速增长。 国内市场通过产品份额持续提升实现逆势增长，CT、MR、MI、RT等产品新增装机量位居行业第一，MR、RT、PET/CT市占率分别提升6.4、18.1、13.5个百分点。 短期毛利率面临集采、关税及液氦成本上升压力，但高端产品组合优化与服务收入占比提升有望部分抵消负面影响。 基于DCF估值模型，目标价下调至161.04元，维持“买入”评级，但2026-2028年盈利预测因集采和液氦成本压力有所下调。 主要内容 业绩概览：2025年营收与利润双超预期，1Q26收入略低于预期 2025年公司营收同比增长34.0%至138亿元，高于CMBIGM预期4%；归母净利润同比增长48.1%至19亿元。1Q26营收同比增长17.3%至29亿元，略低于预期，仅占全年预测的17%（历史平均水平约20%）。因此，CMBIGM将2026E营收增速预测从25.7%下调至22.5%，但绝对营收预测因2025年基数提高而上调1.4%。 海外扩张：核心增长驱动力，高端产品渗透与服务收入共振 2025年海外营收同比增长51.4%至34亿元，北美（+56%）、欧洲（+50%）、亚太（+41%）均实现强劲增长。 1Q26海外营收延续增长势头，同比增长约27%至约7.1亿元。 增长驱动因素：高端产品（如PET/CT、MR）持续取得进展，全球销售与服务网络不断完善，品牌认知度提升及高端客户渗透率提高。 海外服务收入2025年同比增长约53%，预计2026E海外营收将维持稳健增长。 国内增长：份额提升弥补市场收缩，设备更新项目有望加速 2025年国内营收同比增长29.1%至104亿元，CT、MR、MI、RT等产品新增装机量排名第一。 市占率提升显著：MR（+6.4ppt）、RT（+18.1ppt）、PET/CT（+13.5ppt）。 设备更新项目持续推进，凭借2025年实施经验，预计执行将加速，继续支撑医院采购需求。 但1Q26国内医学影像设备市场同比下降21.1%（据MDDi），考虑到中标与收入确认的时间差，预计2H26E营收面临更严峻的同比基数。 毛利率：短期承压，产品结构优化与服务扩张提供缓冲 2025年/1Q26毛利率同比分别下降1.5ppt/2.8ppt至47.0%/47.2%，主因国内集采、关税及液氦成本上升。 积极因素：2025年混合ASP同比增长超20%，3.0T及以上MR系统收入同比增长超60%，占MR总收入三分之二以上。 服务收入同比增长26%，占总收入12.4%（服务毛利率高于设备销售）。 多元化氦气采购及关键部件自产比例提升，有望进一步支撑毛利率改善。 盈利预测调整：下调2026-2028E盈利，维持买入评级 考虑集采压力与液氦成本上升，下调2026-2028E营收/净利润预测（FY26E营收微调+1.37%，FY28E营收下调-2.20%；FY26E净利润下调-3.91%，FY28E净利润下调-10.67%）。 基于9年期DCF模型（WACC 8.1%，终端增长率4.0%），目标价由162.29元下调至161.04元，当前股价112.35元，潜在上行空间43.3%。 敏感性分析显示，WACC每变动0.5个百分点或终端增长率每变动0.5个百分点，目标价波动区间约在109-310元。 总结 联影医疗2025年业绩强劲，海外营收增长51.4%和国内份额提升是核心驱动力。尽管1Q26国内设备市场出现下滑且集采/成本压力持续，但高端产品占比提升、服务收入扩张以及设备更新项目的推进有望提供增长支撑。CMBIGM下调2026-2028E盈利预测并调降目标价至161.04元，但仍看好公司长期增长前景，维持“买入”评级。

中心思想 全球需求驱动业绩加速增长，CDMO里程碑交易奠定长期动能 基于2025年财务数据，Pharmaron北京营收同比增长14.8%至141.0亿元，经调整净利润同比增长13.0%至18.2亿元，增速较2024年显著提升。收入与利润分别较预期高出0.5%和0.7%，符合市场预期。管理层预计2026年营收同比增长12%-18%，已考虑汇率约3个百分点的负面影响。核心驱动力来自全球前20大药企客户收入暴增29.4%，远超公司整体水平，以及欧洲客户收入增长27.4%，体现全球研发外包需求的全面回暖。 小分子CDMO商业服务实现关键突破，礼来合作重塑增长预期 2026年3月礼来向Pharmaron投入2亿美元用于口服GLP-1药物Orforglipron的DP（制剂）商业化生产合作。此协议不仅将带来未来可观的增量收入（2026年贡献有限），更标志着Pharmaron的CDMO平台已通过顶级药企的严格质量体系认证。加之其API（原料药）设施已通过FDA检查，首个美国创新API项目于2025年四季度获批，公司小分子CDMO业务未来三年增速将超越其他业务线，成为增长主引擎。 主要内容 财务业绩回顾：增长加速，利润率稳健提升 营收与利润双升：2025年营收141.0亿元（+14.8% YoY），经调整净利润18.2亿元（+13.0% YoY），增速较2024年的6.4%和-15.6%大幅改善。毛利率从34.2%提升至34.8%，预期在2026-2028年进一步升至35.8%-37.5%。 分业务驱动：实验室服务新订单同比增长约12%；小分子CDMO新订单同比增长约13%，新增24个临床III期及15个PPQ/商业化项目；临床开发新订单增速超过公司平均，显示国内临床需求企稳及市场份额提升。 全球客户需求扩张：战略客户渗透与CDMO管线推进 顶级客户表现：全球前20大药企收入同比增长29.4%，远高于14.8%的公司平均。欧洲客户收入同比增长27.4%，得益于有效的市场进入战略和CDMO项目稳步推进。 订单增长趋势：2025年新签订单同比增长超14%，延续2024年超20%的强劲增势，表明全球对研发与生产外包的需求持续扩大。 小分子CDMO商业服务突破：礼来合作与商业化能力证明 里程碑式DP协议：与礼来就口服GLP-1药物Orforglipron签署商业化制剂生产协议。礼来投资2亿美元支持Pharmaron技术能力建设，未来合作范围有扩大潜力。该协议将产生大量增量收入，并作为公司全球化拓展的强有力背书。 商业化API能力：绍兴和宁波的API设施均已通过FDA检查，首个美国创新API项目于2025年四季度获批。基于DP合作及管线进展，预计未来三年小分子CDMO增速将快于其他业务线。 盈利预测与估值：上调目标价，维持买入评级 财务预测上调：CMBIGM将2026/27年营收预测分别上调1.98%/1.65%，毛利率预测上调1.29/1.39个百分点，经调整净利润预测上调1.38%/0.53%。 估值与评级：基于DCF模型（WACC 9.32%，终端增长率2.0%），将目标价从38.08元上调至39.00元，维持“买入”评级。预测2026-2028年经调整净利润同比分别增长18.7%/17.7%/16.5%。 总结 Pharmaron北京2025年业绩全面加速，全球客户需求扩张及小分子CDMO商业化突破是核心驱动力。与礼来的制剂生产合作协议是标志性事件，不仅锁定了未来高增量收入，更向全球市场证明了公司CDMO平台符合顶级药企质量标准。公司API能力也已通过FDA认证，商业化管线日益丰富。管理层预计2026年营收增长12%-18%（受汇率负面3ppt影响），CMBIGM预计实际增长16.4%，且未来三年经调整净利润复合增速约17.6%。当前股价27.98元，对应2026年调整后PE为23.8倍，目标价39.00元具备39.4%上行空间。全球研发与生产外包需求回升背景下，Pharmaron正从实验室服务到商业化生产全链条受益，尤其CDMO业务将凭借头部客户背书和产能优势进入加速增长期。

中心思想 CDMO需求强劲驱动2026年增长，药明康德业绩超预期 本报告核心观点认为，药明康德2025年财务表现强劲，收入同比增长15.8%（持续经营业务增长21.4%），调整后非IFRS净利润同比增长41.3%，均超出市场预期。强劲的CDMO需求是主要驱动力，体现在2025年底持续经营业务积压订单同比增长28.8%（固定汇率下34%），其中TIDES业务积压订单加速增长，小分子D&M业务也呈现加速态势。早期业务（小分子药物发现、测试、生物学）在2025年出现明显复苏迹象，收入降幅收窄或转正，预计2026年将继续受益于全球生物技术融资复苏。公司大幅增加资本支出以扩大全球产能（2026年capex预计65-75亿元，肽固相合成反应器容量扩至13万升），彰显对未来制造需求的信心。基于此，报告上调目标价至133元（+42%上行空间），维持买入评级。 盈利预期上调，估值具有吸引力 报告将2026-2028年盈利预测显著上调，调整后净利润分别较此前预测提高28.5%/31.7%，主要反映了更高的收入增长预期和利润率改善。当前估值水平（2026年调整后PE 15.6x）相对于强劲的盈利增长（2026-2028年调整后净利润复合增速约16.5%）具有吸引力。DCF估值模型（WACC 9.39%，终端增长率2.0%）得出的目标价133元，对应约15%的估值提升空间。 主要内容 业绩概览与关键财务数据 2025年全年业绩：收入454.6亿元（+15.8% YoY），持续经营业务收入增长21.4%；调整后非IFRS净利润149.6亿元（+41.3% YoY），分别超预期2.7%和18.2%。 2026年指引：管理层预计2026年收入513-530亿元，持续经营业务收入增长18-22%，调整后非IFRS净利率保持稳定。 盈利预测上调：报告将2026-2028年调整后净利润预测分别上调28.5%/31.7%/新增2028年预测，反映需求前景改善。 核心业务分析：CDMO需求强劲 积压订单持续增长：截至2025年四季度末，持续经营业务积压订单达580亿元（+28.8% YoY，固定汇率+34%）。尽管增速较三季度末的45.8%有所放缓，但基于庞大的绝对基数，仍显示出全球客户需求的持续旺盛。 TIDES业务加速：TIDES积压订单同比增长20.2%（三季度末为17.1%），积压订单规模约200亿元。管理层预计2026年TIDES业务将实现30-40%的固定汇率同比增长。 小分子D&M业务：报告测算其他业务（主要包含小分子D&M）积压订单同比增长33.8%，预计2026年也将实现加速增长。 早期业务复苏与全球产能扩张 早期业务收入改善： 小分子药物发现服务：2025年全年收入同比下降3.8%（2024年下降28.7%），下半年仅下降2.2%。 测试业务：2025年全年收入同比增长4.7%（2024年下降8.0%），下半年增长8.8%。 生物学业务：2025年全年收入同比增长5.2%（2024年下降0.3%）。 随着全球生物技术融资复苏，预计2026年复苏势头将持续。 全球产能扩张计划： 2025年资本支出55.4亿元（+38.5% YoY），扭转2024年下降趋势。 2026年资本支出预计65-75亿元（+17.3%~35.4% YoY），支持全球产能建设。 计划将肽固相合成反应器容量扩至13万升，反映多肽/寡核苷酸药物制造需求的激增。 估值与评级 目标价调整：基于DCF模型，目标价从123.35元上调至133.00元（WACC 9.39%，终端增长率2.0%），对应42%上行空间。 盈利预测：预计2026E/27E/28E持续经营业务收入增速分别为19.1%/15.7%/13.4%，调整后净利润增速分别为19.9%/16.0%/13.6%。 评级：维持买入评级。 风险因素：需关注地缘政治风险、行业监管变化、全球生物技术融资波动等敏感性因素（DCF敏感性分析显示，WACC变动1%或终端增长率变动0.5%时，估值波动区间为110-173元）。 总结 药明康德2025年业绩表现强劲，收入与利润均超预期，核心驱动力来自CDMO业务的持续旺盛需求。积压订单高增、TIDES业务加速、早期业务明显复苏，共同构成了2026年增长的坚实基础。公司大幅扩大资本开支以扩张产能，特别是多肽领域的布局，彰显对中长期需求的信心。报告上调盈利预测和目标价至133元，当前估值（2026年调整后PE 15.6x）与未来2-3年约16%的净利润复合增速相比具备吸引力，维持买入评级。主要关注点在于全球生物技术融资趋势、地缘政治不确定性以及产能扩张的执行效果。

　　迈瑞医疗(300760) 　　In2024,Mindray reported revenue of RMB36.7bn(+5.1%YoY)and attributablenet profit of RMB11.7bn(+0.7%YoY).GPM dropped by1.1ppts YoY to63.1%,primarily due to1)pricing pressure on IVD reagents and mid-to low-end medicalequipment,2)weaker IVD testing demand following DRG2.0implementationand inter-hospital recognition of test results.The proportion of revenue from IVDreagent declined in4Q24.The Sino-US trade frictions may raise costs for US-sourced raw materials in2025E,while Mindray is actively seeking substitutes toprotect margins.In1Q25,Mindray’s revenue fell by12.1%YoY to RMB8.2bn,mainly due to1)over20%YoY decline in domestic revenue,as revenuerecognition lagged behind procurement recovery,2)a high overseas revenuebase in1Q24(up nearly30%YoY),resulting in slow1Q25overseas growth of4.3%YoY. 　　Steady growth from overseas.In2024,overseas revenue grew by21.3%YoY to RMB16.4bn,accounting for44.7%of total revenue(+6.0ppts).Ex-North America revenue rose26%YoY to RMB13.8bn,with Asia-Pacificcontinuing as the growth engine.Mindray achieved further breakthroughs inhigh-end markets,with high-end strategic customers contributing14%ofoverseas revenue.With enhanced localization and installations of high-endproducts such as the MT8000,we expect the overseas revenue to grow bya mid-teens percentage in2025E.As the US contributed only~6%ofMindray’s total revenue,the impact of trade frictions may be moderate.Diversified manufacturing across13countries and proactive inventorymanagement should help mitigate related risks. 　　Domestic market remained under pressure.In2024,domestic revenuedecreased by5.1%YoY to RMB20.3bn.Revenue from PMLS and MISsegments fell31%YoY and2%YoY,respectively,due to weak hospitalprocurement.According to IQVIA,China’s medical equipment marketdecreased12.3%YoY in2024.Policy headwinds including DRG2.0,inter-hospital recognition of test results,and reagent price cuts further weighedon IVD revenue.IQVIA estimated a decline in the biochemical market andflat growth in immunology market in2024.Therefore,Mindray’s domesticIVD revenue increased1%YoY in2024.However,Joinchain data shows a67.5%YoY increase in medical equipment bidding value in1Q25,indicatingpotential recovery of domestic medical equipment procurement.Weanticipate the revenue recovery will occur in2H25E,primarily due to thetime lag between the bidding process and revenue recognition. 　　Maintain BUY.Given the uncertainties of the timeline of domesticprocurement recovery and trade frictions,we revise down our earningsforecasts.We expect revenue and attributable net profit to grow9.4%and6.5%YoY,respectively,in2025E.Based on a9-year DCF model,we adjustour TP to RMB249.19(WACC:9.2%,terminal growth rate:3.0%).

　　药明康德(603259) 　　WuXi AppTec reported impressive 1Q25 financial results. Revenue increased by21.0% YoY to RMB9.65bn, with revenue from continuing operations rising by23.1% YoY to RMB9.39bn. Adjusted non-IFRS net profit surged by 40.0% YoY toRMB2.68bn. Both revenue and net profit continued the quarterly improvementtrend seen throughout 2024, which further accelerated significantly in 1Q25. Asof the end of 1Q25, the Company’s backlog grew by 47.1% YoY to RMB52.33bn.Despite ongoing macro uncertainties, mgmt. has reaffirmed its full-year guidance,projecting a 10–15% YoY increase in revenue from continuing operations andexpansion in the adjusted non-IFRS net profit margin. 　　TIDES business gained momentum with strong growth. WuXi AppTec’sTIDES business experienced strong growth 1Q25, with revenue soaring187.6% YoY to RMB2.24bn, an acceleration from the 70.1% growth in 2024.According to mgmt., the growth was driven by the ramp-up of new capacitiesand contributions from oral GLP-1 programs. TIDES backlog more thandoubled, increasing by 105.5% YoY as of 1Q25, providing a solid foundationfor sustained growth. The Company remains on track to expand its peptidecapacity to over 100k liters by the end of 2025. Hence, Mgmt. continued toexpect TIDES revenue to grow more than 60% YoY in 2025. 　　Early-stage business remained under pressure with signs of moderaterecovery. Revenue from Biology segment grew 8.2% YoY in 1Q25, marking asecond consecutive quarter of positive growth, indicating a recovery in clientdemand for drug discovery services. In Chemistry segment, small-molecule drugdiscovery revenue declined 7.1% YoY, an improvement from the 28.7% YoYdrop in 2024. Testing segment remained affected by pricing pressure. Lab testingrevenue slid 4.9% YoY (vs. -8.0% YoY in 2024), with safety assessment revenuefalling 7.8% YoY (vs. -13.0% YoY in 2024). Mgmt. noted that pricing appeared tohave reached a trough, although a meaningful recovery will still take time. 　　Strengthening shareholder returns amid market uncertainties. WuXiAppTec’s Board of Directors has proposed a series of shareholder returninitiatives, including maintaining a 30% annual cash dividend payout ratio,issuing a one-time RMB1bn special dividend in 2025, introducing the interimdividend plan in 2025, and repurchasing and cancelling RMB1bn A-shares(announced on March 17). In addition, the Company announced a secondRMB1bn A-share repurchase and cancellation plan on April 8, which has nowcommenced. Combined, the proposed dividends and share repurchaseprograms total nearly RMB6bn, equivalent to 62% of 2024 attributable netprofit, underscoring WuXi AppTec’s strong commitment to shareholder return. 　　Maintain BUY. Due to the macro uncertainties such as the US-China tradewar, we revise down forecasts and now expect revenue from continuingoperation business to grow by 13.3%/14.9%/15.9% YoY and adjusted nonIFRS net income to grow by 9.7%/17.5%/15.9% YoY in 2025E/ 26E/ 27E,respectively (previously: 14.4%/15.2%/16.3% and 11.7%/19.0%/+16.1%YoY). We thus cut our DCF-based TP from RMB94.05 to RMB77.22 (WACC:9.42%, terminal growth: 2.00%; both unchanged). Our estimates are higherthan Bloomberg consensus, reflecting our confidence in earnings resilience