2025中国医药研发创新与营销创新峰会
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    全部报告(27)

    • Overseas strength offsets domestic softness

      Overseas strength offsets domestic softness

      个股研报
        迈瑞医疗(300760)   Mindray reported9M25revenue of RMB25.8bn,down by12.4%YoY.Revenuein3Q25reached RMB9.1bn,up by1.5%YoY,indicating a turnaround driven byaccelerating overseas growth and mild domestic recovery.Overseas revenuerose12%YoY to RMB4.6bn in3Q,with revenue from Europe up by29%.Domestic revenue fell by7%YoY in3Q,while the decline narrowed notablycompared to1H25.We anticipate a further acceleration in growth in4Q25,supported by the ongoing recovery in domestic equipment procurement,solidoverseas momentum,and a favorable base effect.   IVD:solid overseas growth;accelerated TLA installation.In3Q25,IVDsegment reported revenue of RMB3.6bn,down by3%YoY,with overseasIVD revenue achieving double-digit growth.TLA(Total LaboratoryAutomation)installations continued to accelerate.In9M25,180units of theMT8000TLA were installed in China,and full-year domestic deploymentsare expected to exceed200units,per company guidance.OverseasMT8000sales surpassed20units,which has met the full-year target.Weexpect TLA systems to enhance Mindray’s penetration into leading domestichospitals and medium-to-high throughput labs overseas,supporting long-term IVD growth.   MIS:continued high-end upgrade.MIS segment reported revenue ofRMB1.7bn in3Q25,roughly flat YoY.Overseas MIS grew at a high single-digit rate,while sales of ultra-high-end products doubled in9M25.We seesignificant potential for market share gains in high-end and ultra-high-endultrasound,both domestically and internationally,driven by the risingadoption of Resona A20/Nuewa A20and upcoming launches in thepremium portfolio.   Profitability under headwinds.Mindray’s attributable net margin declinedto29.3%in9M25,down7ppts YoY,mainly due to domestic pricing pressurefrom volume-based procurement(VBP)and intensified competition.Increased investment in overseas expansion also led to an increase inselling expenses.Going forward,we expect greater in-house reagent rawmaterial production,a higher mix of high-end products,and growingoverseas contribution to partly offset domestic margin pressure and supportsound long-term profitability.   Maintain BUY.Given continued demand and pricing pressure in the IVDsegment,we revise down our2025E-27E forecasts and lower our targetprice to RMB249.21based on a9-year DCF model(WACC:9.1%,terminalgrowth:3.0%).
      CMB International Capital Corporation Limited
      6页
      2025-10-31
    • Strong recovery in Q3

      Strong recovery in Q3

      个股研报
        联影医疗(688271)   United Imaging (UIH) reported strong 9M25 results, with revenue of RMB8.9bn(+27% YoY), reaching 69% of our prior full-year estimate and exceeding thehistorical average of ~65%. The sharp 75% YoY revenue growth in 3Q25 wasdriven by a significant recovery in domestic equipment procurement, sustainedoverseas growth momentum, and a low base in 3Q24. Domestic demandremained solid, with the value of medical imaging tenders up by 55% YoY in 3Q25,according to Joinchain. Overseas growth was supported by strong order intakeand improved order-to-revenue conversion. Therefore, we raise our 2025Erevenue forecast to RMB13.3bn, implying 28.8% YoY growth.   Robust performance of high-end portfolios. UIH’s domestic revenue grew24% YoY to RMB6.9bn in 9M25, driven by procurement recovery and marketshare gain of over 4ppts. High-end products remained a key growth driver. 1)MR revenue grew 40% YoY, with notable share gains in 5T (+ ~52ppts) and3T (+over 4ppts). 2) CT revenue increased 8% YoY with high-end CT up ~30%YoY. We expect photon-counting CT uCT Ultima and uCT Siriux to furtherstrengthen UIH’s position in the high-end CT market. 3) MI revenue rose 22%YoY with PET/CT maintaining its decade-long leading position in China. uMIPanorama has contributed ~40% of MI revenue. 4) XR and RT both delivereddouble-digit growth with continued share gains. The increasing revenuecontribution from mid- to high-end products is expected to offset marginpressures from lower-end portfolios. Moreover, the upcoming launch of acomprehensive ultrasound portfolio in Nov 2025 should further support UIH’s“diagnosis-to-treatment” strategy and high-end imaging leadership, in ourview.   Overseas business maintained strong momentum. Overseas revenuerose 42% to RMB2.0bn, representing 22.5% (+2.3ppts) of total revenue in9M25. Revenue in North America grew by over 50% YoY to ~RMB700mn in9M, with US service revenue up 80%+ YoY on the back of an expandinginstalled base. A diversified supply chain and proactive inventory managementhelped mitigate tariff pressure, while recurring service revenue may enhancelong-term resilience. European revenue more than doubled YoY to overRMB400mn in 9M. Notably, uMI Panorama GS and uMI Panvivo havepenetrated into the high-end market in Western Europe. Asia-Pacific andemerging markets also delivered double-digit growth. Management indicatedrobust overseas order intake. With stronger sales conversion from orders, weexpect overseas growth to remain solid in 4Q25E.   Maintain BUY. Considering the rapid domestic recovery in 2025E and strongoverseas growth momentum, we raise our forecasts of 2025–2027E revenueCAGR from 22.6% to 24.1%. Based on a 9-year DCF model (WACC: 8.1%,terminal growth: 4.0%), we raise our target price to RMB162.29
      CMB International Capital Corporation Limited
      6页
      2025-10-31
    • Rising demand for small molecule D&M business

      Rising demand for small molecule D&M business

      个股研报
        药明康德(603259)   WuXi AppTec reported strong 3Q25 results, with revenue increasing by 15.3%YoY (including 19.7% YoY growth for continuing operations) and adj. non-IFRSnet profit surging by 42.0% YoY. Revenue from continuing operations in 9M25accounted for 73.8% of our full-year forecast, in line with historical average of72%, while adj. non-IFRS net profit in 9M25 represented 85.7% of our full-yearforecast, significant higher than the historical average of 72%. WuXi AppTecdelivered strong operational execution, despite ongoing macro uncertainties. Assuch, mgmt. further raised its full-year guidance for 2025, expecting total revenueto be RMB43.5-44.0bn (previously: RMB42.5-43.5bn) with revenue fromcontinuing operations to grow by 17-18% (previously: 13-17%). Mgmt. continuedto expect adj. non-IFRS net profit margin to expand in 2025.   Encouraging demand growth in small molecule D&M business. As ofSept 2025, WuXi AppTec’s backlog from continuing operations reached RMB59.88bn with a strong YoY growth of 41.2%, accelerated from 37.2% YoY asof Jun 2025. In contrast, backlog for TIDES services grew by 17.1% YoY asat end-Sept 2025, slowing from 48.8% YoY seen as at end-Jun 2025. Thedivergence underscored the small molecule D&M business as a primarygrowth driver for backlog in 3Q25. With that, mgmt. expected acceleratedrevenue growth for this segment in 2026. Mgmt. noted that the Company’spipeline included multiple promising products targeting areas such as GLP-1, PCSK9, pain, neurology, and autoimmune diseases. Given that smallmolecule D&M accounted for 46% of total revenue in 2024, we believe it willbecome a key driver for the Company’s overall growth. To meet the risingcustomer demand, WuXi AppTec is actively expanding manufacturingcapacity in China, Singapore, the US, and Switzerland.   Early-stage demand showing more signs of recovery, though a fullrebound will take time. In the Chemistry segment, revenue from drugdiscovery services declined 2.0% YoY in 3Q25, though sequential QoQimprovements were seen. Notably, the safety assessment services posted5.9% YoY and 13.2% QoQ revenue growth in 3Q25, a significant reboundfrom the 7.8% decline in 2Q25, suggesting a recovery in client demand andimproved pricing dynamics. Within the Biology segment, revenue grew 5.9%YoY in the quarter, consistent with the pace observed in 1H25. Mgmt.indicated that early signs of demand recovery are emerging, supported by arebound in China’s capital markets, robust global BD activity, and US interestrate cuts. However, a broad-based industry recovery will still take time. Giventhe high sensitivity to macroeconomic conditions, we believe early-stagebusinesses within WuXi AppTec should have relatively high visibility over thenext two years, as market conditions normalize.   Maintain BUY. We raise our DCF-based TP from RMB118.79 to RMB123.35(WACC: 9.39%, terminal growth: 2.00%; both unchanged), to factor in ourimproved outlook on the macro environment. We now expect revenue to growby 12.8%/ 10.7%/ 14.2% YoY (for continuing operations: 18.0%/ 15.0%/14.2% YoY) and adjusted non-IFRS net profit to grow by 19.6%/ 10.2%/13.3% YoY in 2025E/ 26E/ 27E, respectively.
      CMB International Capital Corporation Limited
      6页
      2025-10-28
    • Impressive growth amid uncertain environment

      Impressive growth amid uncertain environment

      个股研报
        药明康德(603259)   WuXi AppTec reported better-than-expected 1H25 results, with revenueincreasing by 20.6% YoY (including 24.2% YoY growth for continuing operations)and adj. non-IFRS net profit surging by 44.4% YoY. Revenue from continuingoperations and adj. non-IFRS net profit accounted for 47.5% and 54.4%,respectively, of our full-year forecasts, both higher than the historical ranges.WuXi AppTec delivered strong operational execution, despite ongoing macrouncertainties. As such, mgmt. raised its full-year guidance for 2025, expectingrevenue of continuing operations to grow by 13-17% (vs prior guidance of 10-15%) and adj. non-IFRS net profit margin to expand in 2025.   Robust commercial demand drives CDMO outperformance. The robustdemand for late-stage clinical and commercial manufacturing has been a keygrowth driver for the global CXO industry in the post-COVID era. As a globalleader in the chemical drug CDMO sector, WuXi AppTec has substantiallybenefited from this trend. In 1H25, its TIDES revenue surged by 141.6% YoYthanks to faster-than-expected manufacturing capacity ramp-up. Mgmt raisedits full-year guidance for TIDEs revenue growth from 60% to 80%. Revenuefrom small molecule D&M grew by 17.5% YoY, marking a notable reboundfrom the negative growth seen in 2023/2024. In addition, the volatilities in USChina tariffs seemed to have limited impact to the Company’s first halfoperation, in our view. Despite ongoing volatility in the global macroenvironment, we believe that the sustained demand for commercial drugmanufacturing is likely to continue, supporting the growth of leading CDMOplayers like WuXi AppTec.   Expanding global capacity to support long-term growth. As of end-1H25,WuXi AppTec’s backlog impressively grew by 37.2% YoY, with backlog ofTIDES increasing even more strongly at 48.8% YoY. The mgmt. reiteratedtheir plan to increase the Company’s peptide capacity to over 100k liters bythe end of 2025 to support the demand from both existing commercialprojects and growing pipelines. At the same time, capacity expansion effortsare underway at multiple sites, including Changzhou (China), Singapore, theUS and Switzerland. WuXi AppTec has reaffirmed its capex target of RMB7–8bn in 2025, and anticipated possible increases in capex in the coming years.   Recovery in early-stage R&D still takes time. While revenue from earlystage R&D services showed sequential improvements in 1H25 over 2024,mgmt. viewed that a meaningful recovery in early-stage R&D demand willtake time. Early-stage R&D services contribute ~30% of the Company’s totalrevenue. The global biotech financing usually serves as an early indicator ofearly-stage R&D demand.   Maintain BUY. We raise our DCF-based TP from RMB77.22 to RMB116.56(WACC: 9.42%, terminal growth: 2.00%; both unchanged), to factor in theupgraded guidance and the improved macro environment such as the USChina tariff. We now expect revenue from continuing operations to grow by16.0%/ 15.9%/ 15.8% YoY and adjusted non-IFRS net profit to grow by16.2%/ 17.6%/ 16.4% YoY in 2025E/ 26E/ 27E, respectively
      CMB International Capital Corporation Limited
      6页
      2025-07-30
    • Awaiting domestic demand rebound

      Awaiting domestic demand rebound

      个股研报
        迈瑞医疗(300760)   In2024,Mindray reported revenue of RMB36.7bn(+5.1%YoY)and attributablenet profit of RMB11.7bn(+0.7%YoY).GPM dropped by1.1ppts YoY to63.1%,primarily due to1)pricing pressure on IVD reagents and mid-to low-end medicalequipment,2)weaker IVD testing demand following DRG2.0implementationand inter-hospital recognition of test results.The proportion of revenue from IVDreagent declined in4Q24.The Sino-US trade frictions may raise costs for US-sourced raw materials in2025E,while Mindray is actively seeking substitutes toprotect margins.In1Q25,Mindray’s revenue fell by12.1%YoY to RMB8.2bn,mainly due to1)over20%YoY decline in domestic revenue,as revenuerecognition lagged behind procurement recovery,2)a high overseas revenuebase in1Q24(up nearly30%YoY),resulting in slow1Q25overseas growth of4.3%YoY.   Steady growth from overseas.In2024,overseas revenue grew by21.3%YoY to RMB16.4bn,accounting for44.7%of total revenue(+6.0ppts).Ex-North America revenue rose26%YoY to RMB13.8bn,with Asia-Pacificcontinuing as the growth engine.Mindray achieved further breakthroughs inhigh-end markets,with high-end strategic customers contributing14%ofoverseas revenue.With enhanced localization and installations of high-endproducts such as the MT8000,we expect the overseas revenue to grow bya mid-teens percentage in2025E.As the US contributed only~6%ofMindray’s total revenue,the impact of trade frictions may be moderate.Diversified manufacturing across13countries and proactive inventorymanagement should help mitigate related risks.   Domestic market remained under pressure.In2024,domestic revenuedecreased by5.1%YoY to RMB20.3bn.Revenue from PMLS and MISsegments fell31%YoY and2%YoY,respectively,due to weak hospitalprocurement.According to IQVIA,China’s medical equipment marketdecreased12.3%YoY in2024.Policy headwinds including DRG2.0,inter-hospital recognition of test results,and reagent price cuts further weighedon IVD revenue.IQVIA estimated a decline in the biochemical market andflat growth in immunology market in2024.Therefore,Mindray’s domesticIVD revenue increased1%YoY in2024.However,Joinchain data shows a67.5%YoY increase in medical equipment bidding value in1Q25,indicatingpotential recovery of domestic medical equipment procurement.Weanticipate the revenue recovery will occur in2H25E,primarily due to thetime lag between the bidding process and revenue recognition.   Maintain BUY.Given the uncertainties of the timeline of domesticprocurement recovery and trade frictions,we revise down our earningsforecasts.We expect revenue and attributable net profit to grow9.4%and6.5%YoY,respectively,in2025E.Based on a9-year DCF model,we adjustour TP to RMB249.19(WACC:9.2%,terminal growth rate:3.0%).
      CMB International Capital Corporation Limited
      6页
      2025-04-30
    • To navigate macro uncertainties with a good start in 1Q25

      To navigate macro uncertainties with a good start in 1Q25

      个股研报
        药明康德(603259)   WuXi AppTec reported impressive 1Q25 financial results. Revenue increased by21.0% YoY to RMB9.65bn, with revenue from continuing operations rising by23.1% YoY to RMB9.39bn. Adjusted non-IFRS net profit surged by 40.0% YoY toRMB2.68bn. Both revenue and net profit continued the quarterly improvementtrend seen throughout 2024, which further accelerated significantly in 1Q25. Asof the end of 1Q25, the Company’s backlog grew by 47.1% YoY to RMB52.33bn.Despite ongoing macro uncertainties, mgmt. has reaffirmed its full-year guidance,projecting a 10–15% YoY increase in revenue from continuing operations andexpansion in the adjusted non-IFRS net profit margin.   TIDES business gained momentum with strong growth. WuXi AppTec’sTIDES business experienced strong growth 1Q25, with revenue soaring187.6% YoY to RMB2.24bn, an acceleration from the 70.1% growth in 2024.According to mgmt., the growth was driven by the ramp-up of new capacitiesand contributions from oral GLP-1 programs. TIDES backlog more thandoubled, increasing by 105.5% YoY as of 1Q25, providing a solid foundationfor sustained growth. The Company remains on track to expand its peptidecapacity to over 100k liters by the end of 2025. Hence, Mgmt. continued toexpect TIDES revenue to grow more than 60% YoY in 2025.   Early-stage business remained under pressure with signs of moderaterecovery. Revenue from Biology segment grew 8.2% YoY in 1Q25, marking asecond consecutive quarter of positive growth, indicating a recovery in clientdemand for drug discovery services. In Chemistry segment, small-molecule drugdiscovery revenue declined 7.1% YoY, an improvement from the 28.7% YoYdrop in 2024. Testing segment remained affected by pricing pressure. Lab testingrevenue slid 4.9% YoY (vs. -8.0% YoY in 2024), with safety assessment revenuefalling 7.8% YoY (vs. -13.0% YoY in 2024). Mgmt. noted that pricing appeared tohave reached a trough, although a meaningful recovery will still take time.   Strengthening shareholder returns amid market uncertainties. WuXiAppTec’s Board of Directors has proposed a series of shareholder returninitiatives, including maintaining a 30% annual cash dividend payout ratio,issuing a one-time RMB1bn special dividend in 2025, introducing the interimdividend plan in 2025, and repurchasing and cancelling RMB1bn A-shares(announced on March 17). In addition, the Company announced a secondRMB1bn A-share repurchase and cancellation plan on April 8, which has nowcommenced. Combined, the proposed dividends and share repurchaseprograms total nearly RMB6bn, equivalent to 62% of 2024 attributable netprofit, underscoring WuXi AppTec’s strong commitment to shareholder return.   Maintain BUY. Due to the macro uncertainties such as the US-China tradewar, we revise down forecasts and now expect revenue from continuingoperation business to grow by 13.3%/14.9%/15.9% YoY and adjusted nonIFRS net income to grow by 9.7%/17.5%/15.9% YoY in 2025E/ 26E/ 27E,respectively (previously: 14.4%/15.2%/16.3% and 11.7%/19.0%/+16.1%YoY). We thus cut our DCF-based TP from RMB94.05 to RMB77.22 (WACC:9.42%, terminal growth: 2.00%; both unchanged). Our estimates are higherthan Bloomberg consensus, reflecting our confidence in earnings resilience
      CMB International Capital Corporation Limited
      6页
      2025-04-30
    • 1Q25 earnings turnaround: strong overseas growth and domestic market recovery

      1Q25 earnings turnaround: strong overseas growth and domestic market recovery

      个股研报
        联影医疗(688271)   In 2024, United Imaging’s revenue declined 9.7% YoY to RMB10.3bn, withattributable net profit decreasing 36.1% YoY to RMB1.3bn mainly due to thechallenging domestic market environment. Due to delays in equipment renewalpolicies and prolonged industry rectification, the domestic medical equipmentmarket contracted by 12.4% YoY in 2024, according to IQVIA. Despite thechallenging environment, United Imaging’s GPM improved by 1.5 ppts YoY,supported by higher proportion of revenue from mid-to-high-end products (+0.9 pptsequipment GPM) and services (+1.7 ppts GPM from scale/cost optimization). In1Q25, United Imaging achieved turnaround in earnings with revenue andattributable net profit increasing by 5.4% and 1.9% YoY respectively, indicating arecovery in the domestic market.   Overseas business remained robust. In 2024, overseas revenue grew 35.1%YoY to RMB2.3bn, accounting for 22.0% of total revenue (+7.3ppts YoY). ExNorth America revenue rose ~28% YoY to RMB1.6bn, accounting for ~71% ofthe total overseas revenue. United Imaging continued to expand in Europeanand emerging markets, with installation breakthroughs in France, Germany, andemerging markets such as South Africa, Morocco, and Brazil in 2024. Its marketshare in India rose to second place. The strong momentum of overseasbusiness persisted in 1Q25, and we expect overseas business to remain a keygrowth driver in 2025E. With North America contributing only ~6% of totalrevenue, the impact of trade frictions may be limited. Proactive inventorymanagement and global supply chain diversification will further help mitigatethe risks of trade tensions.   Domestic business was under pressure but signs of recovery haveemerged. In 2024, domestic revenue fell by 17.5% YoY to RMB8.0bn.However, the Company’s market share in domestic imaging equipment(excluding ultrasound and DSA) increased significantly, ranking first in marketshare, with significant share gains (+5ppts) in the high-end market. Domesticprocurement recovered strongly in 1Q25, with the domestic medical equipmentbidding value up 67.5% YoY, according to Joinchain. Given the long revenuerecognition cycle for large equipment, we expect meaningful recovery ofdomestic revenue from 2H25E.   Services income grew fast. Services revenue increased by 26.8% YoY toRMB1.4bn in 2024, with revenue contribution growing to 13.2% (+3.8ppts YoY).However, there remains a significant gap compared to GE Healthcare’s 34%service revenue share in 2024, indicating large room for improvement. As of2024, the Company’s global installed base exceeded 34,500 units. Withexpanding installed base, we expect service revenue to maintain rapid growth.   Maintain BUY. Given the uncertain pace of domestic market recovery andongoing trade frictions, we revise down our 2024-2027E revenue forecasts to aCAGR of 18.1%.Thus, we adjust our TP to RMB149.83, based on a 9-year DCFmodel (WACC: 8.2%, terminal growth: 4.0%)
      CMB International Capital Corporation Limited
      6页
      2025-04-30
    • Strengthened earnings certainty drives valuation recovery

      Strengthened earnings certainty drives valuation recovery

      个股研报
        药明康德(603259)   WuXi AppTec reported a YoY revenue decline of 2.73%, to RMB39.2bn, and a2.5% decrease in adjusted non-IFRS net profit, to RMB10.6bn. However,earnings showed encouraging improvement throughout 2024, resulting in apositive revenue and profit growth in 4Q24. The TIDES business remained theprimary growth engine, with full-year revenue up by 70.1% YoY. The Company'sbacklog as of year-end 2024 expanded significantly, growing 47% YoY toRMB49.3bn. Notably, TIDES backlog experienced a substantial 103.9% YoYincrease in 2024. Fuelled by robust order book, management offered a positiveoutlook for 2025, forecasting 10-15% YoY revenue growth in continuingoperations and further enhancement of the adjusted non-IFRS net profit margin.   Strong order growth bolsters future revenue visibility. WuXi AppTec'sbacklog at end-2024 grew by a significant 47% YoY, reaching RMB49.3bn.This represents an acceleration from the 35.2% growth seen at the end of3Q24. Positive trends were evident across segments. CDMO businesssecured 25 new Ph3 and commercial projects in 2024 (vs 20 added in 2023).Biology segment returned to positive revenue growth in 4Q24, posting YoYand QoQ increases of 9.3% and 9.2%, respectively, signaling an improvingtrend in early-stage R&D demand. Furthermore, revenue from Top20 globalpharma clients rose by 24.1% YoY (excl. COVID related projects), expeditingfrom the 23.1% growth in 9M24. These metrics underscore the increasingvisibility of the Company's future revenue. Given the positive outlook for futuredemand, the Company plans to boost capex by 75%-100% YoY in 2025 toRMB7-8bn.   TIDES business sustains strong growth trajectory. TIDES revenue in2024 climbed 70.1% YoY, with backlog expanded by 103.9% YoY. Underlyingdemand for polypeptide manufacturing remains robust in the market. TheCompany's polypeptide capacity reached 41k liters by end-2024, with plansfor a further increase exceeding 100k liters by late 2025, demonstrating WuXiAppTec’s commitment to meeting the growing customer demand. Mgmtanticipates TIDES revenue growth of over 60% YoY in 2025.   Ongoing commitment to shareholder returns. Amidst macroeconomicuncertainties in 2024, WuXi AppTec strengthened its commitment toshareholder returns. The Company completed RMB4.0bn in sharerepurchases and cancellations in 2024 and maintained a dividend payoutratio of 30% for the year. To further enhance returns, mgmt announced a onetime special dividend of RMB1.0bn, alongside a 2025 interim dividend. Mgmtalso indicated plans to repurchase RMB1.0bn of A-shares in 2025.   Maintain BUY. We raise our TP from RMB78.51 to RMB94.05 (based on a10-year DCF model with WACC of 9.42% and terminal growth of 2.0%), tofactor in the earnings recovery. We forecast the continuing operation revenueto grow by 14.4%/ 15.2%/ 16.3% YoY and adjusted non-IFRS net income togrow by 11.7%/ 19.0%/ +16.1% YoY in 2025E/ 26E/ 27E, respectively. Our2025E/ 26E/ 27E forecasts of adjusted non-IFRS profit are 6.9%/ 14.9%/19.6% higher than consensus.
      CMB International Capital Corporation Limited
      6页
      2025-03-19
    • Anticipating a rapid rebound in domestic business

      Anticipating a rapid rebound in domestic business

      个股研报
        联影医疗(688271)   United Imaging’s 9M24 revenue declined by 6.4% YoY to RMB6,954mn, with 3Q24revenue down by 25.0% YoY to RMB1.6bn. This downturn was primarily due to achallenging domestic market environment, marked by stringent industry regulationsand delays in equipment renewal projects. Attributable net profit in 9M24 decreasedby 36.9% YoY to RMB671mn, with net profit margin falling by 4.7 ppts. Despitethese near-term challenges, United Imaging maintained its R&D expenditures andactively pursued expansion in international markets, which impacted profitability inthe third quarter. Looking forward, as the implementation of equipment renewalprojects has gradually picked up pace, United Imaging's revenue and net profitmargins are expected to significantly improve in 2025E, in our view.   Robust overseas growth momentum. In 9M24, United Imaging’s overseasrevenue grew 36.5% YoY to RMB1,404mn, accounting for 20.2% (+6.35 ppts)of total revenue. This accelerated growth continued into the third quarter, withrevenues increasing by 51.7% YoY to RMB471mn. Strong performances werenoted across North America, the Asia-Pacific region, and emerging markets. AsUnited Imaging continues to enhance its overseas localization and servicecapabilities, we believe it is poised to strengthen its global competitiveness,better navigate geopolitical challenges, and sustain rapid growth internationally.   Strong growth in recurring revenue. In 9M24, revenue from maintenanceservices increased by 27.3% YoY to RMB967mn, accounting for 13.9% (+3.7ppts) of the total revenue. With a global installed base now exceeding 31,000units, United Imaging's service revenue contribution remains lower comparedto global industry leaders like GE Healthcare (32.9% in 2023) and Philips(27.7% in 2023). However, with the expanding installed base and an enhancedglobal service network, we expect United Imaging’s recurring revenue tocontinue its rapid increase, offering resilience against industry fluctuations.   Medical equipment renewal projects set to materialize. Mgmt. has notedthat medical equipment renewal projects began implementation in earlyOctober, with multiple procurement activities underway. Additionally, somepreviously delayed equipment procurements, halted due to policy uncertainties,have now restarted. These developments lay the foundation for a recovery inUnited Imaging’s domestic business in 4Q24 and 2025. However, due tostringent industry regulations, the procurement process has become moreprotracted. The installation and revenue recognition timelines for largeequipment are also relatively long. Consequently, the positive impact of thisprocurement rebound is expected to be primarily reflected in 2025, in our view.   Maintain BUY. We expect hospital procurement to recover from 2025 and weare optimistic about the Company's long-term growth potential driven by thecontinued import substitution and strengthened global competitiveness.Therefore, we revise up the terminal growth rate forecast from 3.0% to 4.0%.Based on a 9-year DCF model, we adjust the target price to RMB162.81(WACC: 8.3%, terminal growth rate: 4.0%).
      CMB International Capital Corporation Limited
      6页
      2024-11-04
    • Expect domestic business to rebound from 2025

      Expect domestic business to rebound from 2025

      个股研报
        迈瑞医疗(300760)   Mindray reported9M24revenue of RMB29.5bn,up by8.0%YoY.Attributable netprofit increased by8.2%YoY to RMB10.6bn.Revenue in3Q24grew by1.4%YoY to RMB9.0bn while attributable net profit decreased by9.3%YoY toRMB3.1bn.The slowdown in revenue growth can primarily be attributed tolackluster procurement activities in domestic public hospitals and weakeneddemand for IVD testing,particularly in lower-tier hospitals.Consequently,Mindray's domestic revenue fell by9.7%YoY in3Q24.Additionally,GPM in3Q24decreased by4.8pcts QoQ due to updates in accounting guidelines.   Domestic market remained under pressure,although signs of recoveryin procurement are emerging.1)IVD:Domestic revenue grew by17%YoYin9M24.Nationwide DRG implementation had a negative impact on thediagnosis demand in lower-tier hospitals which were the main contributors toMindray's domestic IVD revenue.To counter act this,Mindray activelyexpanded its IVD business into top hospitals through its TLA and IT solutions.We expect Mindray to install over150TLAs in2024E.2)MIS:Domesticrevenue grew by over10%YoY in9M24driven by the strong volume ramp-up of ultra-high-end Resona A20ultrasound system.3)PMLS:Domesticrevenue decreased by28%YoY in9M24.The decline was influenced by   environment.However,with accelerated issuance of special bonds,andstronger government support to address local debt issues,we expectdomestic equipment demand to recover in2025E.   Healthy growth in overseas business.In3Q24,Mindray’s overseasrevenue increased by18.6%YoY with strong performances in Europe(+29%YoY),APAC(+32%YoY)and LatAm(+25%YoY),although there was someweakness in the US market.Driven by breakthroughs in medium-to-largevolume labs,Mindray’s overseas IVD revenue increased by32%YoY in9M24,accounting for28%of total overseas revenue.Mindray hasaccelerated its overseas localization efforts.As of3Q24,Mindray launchedlocal manufacturing in9countries,8of which are related to IVD.Additionally,emerging businesses such as minimally invasive surgery(+50+%YoY),AED(+50+%YoY)and animal medical(+30+%YoY)grew significantly in9M24.These emerging businesses contributed over10%to Mindray’s overseasrevenue.We expect IVD and emerging businesses to become the primarygrowth drivers for Mindray’s overseas businesses.   Maintain BUY.We lowered our earnings forecasts with target price adjustedto RMB328.81(WACC:9.3%,terminal growth rate:3.0%).
      CMB International Capital Corporation Limited
      6页
      2024-10-31
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