2025中国医药研发创新与营销创新峰会
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    全部报告(41)

    • Resilient demand driving accelerated growth in 3Q26

      Resilient demand driving accelerated growth in 3Q26

      康龙化成(北京)新药技术股份有限公司
        康龙化成(300759)   Pharmaron’s earnings growth accelerated in3Q26,with revenue rising20.9%YoY and non-IFRS adj.net profit attributable to shareholders increasing24.7%YoY,outpacing the growth of17.9%and20.3%YoY,respectively,in1H26.Notethat the growth of adj.net profit consistently exceeded that of revenue through2026,indicating strengthening operating momentum.New bookings of9M26increased by more than30%YoY,led again by the>40%YoY growth of CDMObusiness.Mgmt.maintained its2026E full-year revenue growth guidance of15–20%and expressed confidence in margin improvement in the near future.   Resilient demand and business momentum across all segments.1)Laboratory services revenue grew17.5%YoY in3Q26(vs13.7%YoY in1H26),while9M26bookings increased over25%YoY,accelerating from20%+YoY in1H26.Such growth was supported by complex small moleculesand new modalities,including PROTACs,molecular glues,RIPTACs,conjugates,cyclic peptides and oligonucleotides,alongside deeperpenetration among MNC and AI-enabled drug discovery customers.2)3Q26CDMO revenue rose30.1%YoY(vs32.8%YoY in1H26),with9M26bookings up over40%,maintaining the strong momentum of1H26.Late-stage and commercial demand remained robust,with sizable deliveries forcertain European pharma clients driving the acceleration of Top-20customerrevenue in the quarter.Mgmt.expects more high-potential programs to enterlate and commercial stages with production of certain key projects alreadywell scheduled,marking its CRDMO business model to enter a harvestphase.To accommodate the rising demand,mgmt.targeted capex to reachmore than RMB3.0bn in2026E and to remain elevated in2027E.3)Clinicaldevelopment services revenue increased18.0%YoY in3Q26(vs14.2%YoYin1H26),with9M26bookings up over25%.Mgmt.saw an inflection inChina’s clinical CRO market following intense competition since2022.   Margin well positioned to expand down the road.We expect margins totrend upward for Pharmaron.Per mgmt.,FX reduced9M26gross profitmargin(GPM)by c.2ppts.Laboratory services’3Q26GPM declined3.4pptsYoY,primarily reflecting RMB appreciation against the US dollar.Underconstant FX,the segment GPM would be stable to slightly higher,accordingto mgmt.CDMO GPM expanded1.6ppts YoY and4.5ppts QoQ in3Q26,demonstrating benefits from a richer mix of late-stage and large-scaleprojects,higher utilization and more flexible production scheduling.Small-molecule CDMO GPM exceeded35%in9M26,and mgmt.targets35–40%over time,assuming successful large-project deliveries.Clinical GPMimproved2.3ppts YoY and1.0ppt QoQ in3Q26.China’s CRO marketinflection should support further margin recovery.Collectively,these trendsunderpin mgmt’s goal for adj.net profit to outgrow revenue in the near future.   Maintain BUY.We expect Pharmaron’s revenue to grow by18.3%/19.5%/17.8%YoY and non-IFRS net profit to increase by22.8%/23.8%/19.8%YoYin2026E/27E/28E,respectively.Our DCF-based TP remains unchanged atRMB56.00(WACC of9.32%;terminal growth of2.0%;both unchanged).
      CMB International Capital Corporation Limited
      6页
      2026-10-28
    • Accelerated backlog growth with further guidance raise in 3Q26

      Accelerated backlog growth with further guidance raise in 3Q26

      无锡药明康德新药开发股份有限公司
        药明康德(603259)   WuXi AppTec (WXAT) delivered another strong quarter: 3Q26 revenue rose38.0% YoY, with continuing-operations revenue up 43.5% YoY, while adj. nonIFRS net profit increased 61.3% YoY. Notably, backlog as of end-3Q26 reachedRMB76.74bn, up 36.4% YoY, accelerating from 25.2% YoY as of end-2Q26. Permgmt., 9M26 new bookings increased over 60% YoY, providing furtherfundamental support for earnings outlook. Once again, mgmt. raised 2026revenue guidance to RMB61.0–61.9bn from RMB58.5–60.5bn and continuingoperations growth to 40–42% YoY from 35–39% YoY. Mgmt. maintained itsstable adj. non-IFRS net-margin outlook, and narrowed capex guidance toRMB8.0–8.5bn from RMB7.5–8.5bn.   Continuously exceptional growth and pipeline expansion within WuXiChemistry. WuXi Chemistry remained the principal growth engine for WXAT,with 3Q26 revenue up 48.6% YoY. Small-molecule D&M revenue grew 54.5%YoY, moderating from 72.7% in 1H26 but still benefiting from high-qualitymolecule inflows, pipeline progression into later stages and proactivecapacity deployment. Mgmt. expects Small-molecule D&M revenue to growover 50% YoY in 2026. TIDES revenue rose 51.6% YoY, accelerating from44.3% in 1H26 and leading mgmt. to guide up TIDES growth to ~47% in 2026.The segment added eight Phase III or commercial projects in 3Q26, bringing9M26 additions to 23, the highest in Company’s history. The start of the newChangzhou site underscores mgmt's confidence in sustained demand.Overall, WXAT now has 20 plants for small molecules and peptide projectsat various stages of design preparation, construction or launch readiness.   Broad-based acceleration of early-stage services. WuXi Testing's 3Q26revenue grew 32.7% YoY, versus 31.5% in 1H26, underpinned by robustsafety-assessment revenue growth of 40.6% in 9M26. WuXi Biology revenuerose 14.4% YoY in 3Q26, improving from 11.2% in 1H26. Small-moleculedrug discovery within Chemistry grew 16.8% YoY, sharply above 1H26's5.6% YoY. Together, these trends indicate improving early-stage R&Ddemand, with AIDD customers and new modalities providing incrementalopportunities for WXAT as global biotech funding continues to recover.   Normal volatility of quarterly margins. Although 3Q26 GPM and NPMdeclined sequentially from 2Q26, 9M26 GPM/ adj. NPM still expanded 7.6ppt/8.3ppt YoY, respectively. Quarterly fluctuations are normal in our view, giventhe project mix, delivery schedules of key projects, new-capacity ramp-up andFX movements. Mgmt. aims to share part of its efficiency gains withcustomers and employees rather than maximizing near-term margins. Wetherefore view the sequential margin moderation in 3Q26 as normal quarterlyvolatility, with profitability remaining resilient.   Maintain BUY. To factor in the strong momentum of Chemistry segment, weraise our earnings forecasts, expecting revenue to grow by 35.1%/ 18.7%/15.7% YoY (for continuing operations: 41.4%/ 18.7%/ 15.7% YoY) and adj.net profit to grow by 68.4%/ 18.8%/ 14.4% YoY in 2026E/ 27E/ 28E,respectively. Hence, we raise our DCF-based TP from RMB170.00 toRMB190.00 (WACC: 9.39%, terminal growth: 2.00%; both unchanged)
      CMB International Capital Corporation Limited
      6页
      2026-10-28
    • Overseas strength offsets domestic pressure; eyes on upcoming national VBP

      Overseas strength offsets domestic pressure; eyes on upcoming national VBP

      南微医学科技股份有限公司
      Conmed Corp
        南微医学(688029)   In 1H26, Micro-Tech reported revenue of RMB1,728mn, up 10.4% YoY. Attributablenet profit decreased 16.5% YoY to RMB303mn mainly due to RMB83mn of FXlosses. Excluding FX losses and related tax effects, adjusted attributable net profitrose 16.4% YoY. Given the upcoming 7th national VBP, we cut our 2026E/27Eearnings estimates by 12%/7%, respectively. However, with overseas revenueaccounting for over 60% of total sales, we believe strong overseas growth shouldhelp offset near-term domestic headwinds and support resilient revenue growththrough 2026-27E. Notably, following the 7th National VBP, most of the Company'smajor products will have completed nationwide VBP, which we believe shouldlargely clear domestic pricing risk over the next several years.   Overseas business remains the key growth engine. 1H26 overseas revenueincreased 20.6% YoY to RMB1,094mn, raising its revenue contribution to 63%.Growth was broad-based across APAC, EMEA and the US, with each regiongrowing by more than 20% YoY. Direct sales coverage continued to expandthrough both organic buildout and M&A, reaching 36.7% of total revenue(+4.7ppts YoY). This helped drive overseas gross margin up 1.1ppts YoY to66.2%. In the US, hospital accounts continue to ramp and represented about40% of total US revenue in 1H26. With the acquisition of three product linesfrom CONMED, we expect better access to hospital and GPO channels in theUS, which may drive rapid US growth and improved profitability.   Domestic business faces near-term VBP-related pressures. Domesticrevenue fell 3.6% YoY to RMB634mn in 1H26. Within this, we estimate domestictumor intervention revenue decreased ~40% YoY due to delays in VBPimplementation for tumor ablation consumables. GI revenue grew a modest2.3% YoY to RMB556mn, reflecting proactive channel destocking after theadvance VBP notice in June. We expect the national VBP to be implemented inearly 2027E, suggesting domestic growth pressure could persist through 2H26Eand into 2027E.   Eyes on tender outcomes of the 7th National VBP in Sep 10, 2026. The 7thNational VBP, officially announced on Aug 26, covers 23 GI interventioncategories. Micro-Tech obtained demand volume in 21 categories, ranking No.1in twelve and No.2 in five. Dominant volume shares in hemostasis clips (49%)and cholangioscopes (62%) highlighted its strong market leadership. In ourview, while domestic revenue and margin will come under short-term pressure,past VBP cycles suggest leading players typically gain market share. And weexpect the innovative products such as cholangioscopes, and ERCP productsthat used to be dominated by MNCs to see faster post-VBP penetration.   Maintain BUY. We lower our 2026E-27E earnings forecasts to reflect upcomingVBP pressure. Accordingly, we lower our TP to RMB90.60 based on a 10-yearDCF model (WACC: 10.7%, terminal growth rate: 2.0%). Risks: deeper VBPprice erosion, overseas growth underperformance.
      CMB International Capital Corporation Limited
      6页
      2026-08-28
    • Guidance raised on robust CDMO growth

      Guidance raised on robust CDMO growth

      Eli Lilly & Co
      GLP-1
      康龙化成(北京)新药技术股份有限公司
      奥氟格列隆
        康龙化成(300759)   Pharmaron delivered robust1H26results,with revenue rising17.9%YoY toRMB7.6bn and non-IFRS net profit up20.3%YoY to RMB909mn.Earningsgrowth in2Q26clearly accelerated over1Q26.1H26revenue accounted for46.2%of our full-year forecast,higher than the historical range of43-45%,whilenon-IFRS net profit in1H26represented42.1%of our full-year forecast,in-linewith the historical range of40-45%.New bookings increased by more than30%YoY,led by the>50%YoY growth of CDMO business.Reflecting strong ordergrowth and improving execution,mgmt.raised full-year revenue growth guidanceto15-20%(from12-18%),coupled with faster growth of non-IFRS net profit.   Commercial breakthroughs and margin expansion of CDMO segment.CDMO segment was the standout performer,generating1H26revenue ofRMB1.88bn(+32.8%YoY)and a gross profit margin(GPM)of25.7%(+2.6ppt YoY).Growth was fueled by robust small-molecule demand and theprogression of late-stage projects.The company secured a landmarkcommercial drug-product manufacturing agreement for Eli Lilly’s oral GLP-1product(Orforglipron),while its Ningbo facility passed its first Chinainnovative drug API PAI Inspection.Its CDMO services encompass a broadrange of modalities and high-potential targets,with several products alreadyin mid-to-late-stage clinical or commercialization stage,poised for near-termvolume ramp-up.The company is also stepping up capacity expansion,advancing small-molecule CDMO facilities in Shaoxing and Hangzhou,aswell as facilities for peptide and conjugation.Driven by robust demandcoupled with rising utilization,we expect CDMO segment to serve as the maincontributor to the Company’s overall GPM expansion going forward.   Clinical services close to bottoming-out.Clinical services revenue grew13.8%YoY in1H26,higher than the single-digit growth seen in2024/25.2Q26segment GPM rebounded sharply by~5.0ppts QoQ to12.1%,aspricing pressure eased with signals of price hikes.New orders climbed>30%YoY,creating more evidence of demand recovery in China clinical market.Mgmt.expected continued margin improvement through2H26and into2027.   Resilient early-stage demand with AI momentum building.Lab servicesrevenue increased13.7%YoY in1H26,with bioscience contributing over60%of segment revenue.Segment bookings rose20%+YoY,underscoringsustained early-stage R&D demand from both MNCs and biotech clients.Specifically,new modalities revenue within bioscience grew over40%YoY,aligning with the trend seen in past few years.Note that AI-driven drugdiscovery(AIDD)revenue now exceeds7%of the lab segment,with AIDDorder growth consistently outpacing the overall lab average.   Maintain BUY.To factor in the solid demand growth and expected marginexpansion,we raise our forecast on Pharmaron’s earnings,expectingrevenue to grow by18.3%/19.6%/17.0%YoY and non-IFRS net profit toincrease by22.5%/23.2%/20.0%YoY in2026E/27E/28E,respectively.Hence,we raise our DCF-based TP from RMB39.00to RMB56.00(WACC of9.32%;terminal growth of2.0%;both unchanged).   MORE REPORTS FROM BLOOMBERG:RESP CMBR<GO>OR http://www.cmbi.com.hk   Source:Company data,CMBIGM estimates   Source:Bloomberg,CMBIGM estimates   Risks:   1)Lower-than-expectedCDMO projects in the globalin early-stage R&D;3)geopolitical uncertainties.
      CMB International Capital Corporation Limited
      6页
      2026-08-24
    • Robust overseas growth offset soft domestic demand

      Robust overseas growth offset soft domestic demand

      上海联影医疗科技股份有限公司
      上海联影智能医疗科技有限公司
        联影医疗(688271)   United Imaging (UIH) reported 1H26 revenue of RMB7,052mn, up 17% YoY,representing 42% of our prior full-year forecast and below the ~47% historicalaverage. Overseas revenue remained strong, up 54.5% YoY while domesticrevenue grew a modest 8.5% YoY against a weak domestic market. Attributablenet profit decreased 10% YoY to RMB897mn, primarily due to FX losses. On anex-FX basis, bottom-line grew a resilient 9% YoY. Given weaker-than-expecteddomestic procurement in 1H26 and the lag between tender wins and revenuerecognition, we lower our 2026E revenue forecast by 3.7%. We also cut our2026E earnings forecast by 6.8%, reflecting the FX losses already recorded in1H26 and near-term gross margin pressure from broader domestic centralizedprocurement, although we expect FX headwinds to moderate in 2H26E. Lookingahead, we believe that the sales mix shifts to mid- to high-end products andservices should help offset centralized procurement-related margin pressure inthe long term.   Overseas growth remained strong, with improving margins. Overseasrevenue increased 54.5% YoY to RMB1,765mn, expanding the overseasrevenue mix by 6ppts to 25% (+6ppts YoY). The robust growth was primarilydriven by APAC (+148.5% YoY) and Europe (+49.4% YoY). Servicerevenue overseas increased 64% YoY, driven by a growing installed base.Notably, favorable mix toward mid- to high-end products, together withimproving localization and operating efficiency, drove overseas grossmargin up by over 3ppts YoY. The order intake remained healthy, with mixcontinuing to shift toward higher-end products. We therefore expectoverseas revenue growth to remain strong in 2H26.   Domestic share gains led by high-end products. Domestic revenue grew8.5% YoY to RMB5,287mn despite a weak market in 1H26, with UIH gaining1.7ppts of domestic market share YoY. Share gains were particularlynotable in high-end products such as 3.0T MR (+1.5ppts), PET/MR (+40ppts), DSA (+6ppts). In addition, we believe UIH’s increasing revenue mixof mid- and high-end products should help mitigate the margin pressurefrom centralized procurement over time. According to MDDi, the domesticmarket for medical imaging equipment declined 15.8% YoY in 1H26. Giventhe high base in 2H25 and the tender-to-revenue lag, we expect 2H26Edomestic revenue will inevitably face growth pressure. However, therecovery in procurement activities since July should support solid growth inlate-2H26E and 1H27E.   Maintain BUY. We lower our 2026E earnings forecasts to reflect near-termFX losses and pressure from centralized procurement, but remain positiveon UIH’s long-term growth. We therefore lower TP to RMB154.95 based ona 9-year DCF model (WACC: 8.1%, terminal growth: 4.0%).
      CMB International Capital Corporation Limited
      6页
      2026-08-21
    • Guidance raised after exceptional 2Q26 earnings

      Guidance raised after exceptional 2Q26 earnings

      无锡药明康德新药开发股份有限公司
        药明康德(603259)   WuXi AppTec delivered exceptionally strong results in 1H26, with growthaccelerating through the year despite meaningful FX headwinds. In 1H26, totalrevenue rose 38.9% YoY to RMB28.9bn (2Q: +47.7% YoY), while revenue fromcontinuing operations grew 48.0% YoY (2Q: +55.2% YoY). Adj. net profit surged83.2% YoY to RMB11.6bn (2Q: +91.7% YoY), driving the adj. net margin to arecord 40.0%. Demand visibility continued to improve, with backlog for continuingoperations reaching RMB66.4bn as of 30 June. Mgmt. noted backlog/newbookings grew ~30%/ >40% YoY on a constant exchange basis. Mgmt.substantially raised full-year guidance by projecting 2026 revenue to reachRMB58.5-60.5bn (previously RMB51.3-53.0bn), with revenue from continuingoperations to grow by 35-39% YoY (previously 18-22% YoY). Adj. net profitmargin is expected to remain stable.   Broad-based growth led by Chemistry on capacity efficiency gains fromlate-stage and commercial projects. Mgmt. expected for greater successfrom several customers’ products, which we believe will be the main growthdriver of the Chemistry segment in 1H26. Mgmt. emphasized that over 80%of commercial projects were converted internally from its own pipeline, andlate-stage plus commercial projects now contribute more than 50% ofrevenue, a structural mix shift that underpins both growth durability andmargin resilience. Specifically, small molecule D&M revenue jumped 72.7%YoY (2Q26: +66.9%), while TIDES revenue grew 44.3% YoY in 1H26 with74.9% YoY growth in 2Q26, lifting full-year TIDES growth guidance to ~45%(from ~40%). Mgmt. attributed quarterly TIDES volatility to deliveryscheduling and complex supply-chain planning, not underlying demand.Testing revenue rose 31.5% YoY (2Q: +35.1%), with safety assessmentservices up 42.8% YoY. Biology revenue steadily grew 11.2% YoY in 1H26(2Q26: +12.3%). Mgmt. highlighted a recovery in global early-stage R&Ddemand over recent quarters, particularly in new modalities, and viewed AIdriven drug discovery as a positive factor for its early-stage business.   Capacity effectively running at full utilization. TIDES capacity is plannedto reach 130k L by end-2026, with three new workshops under construction -two in Taixing (online in 2027) and one in Singapore (online in 2028). Smallmolecule capacity is targeted at 5mn L by end-2026. The construction of newChangzhou site was initiated ahead of schedule to accommodate demand.The increase of capex to RMB7.5–8.5bn reflects accelerated overseasconstruction and the early Changzhou start, with further potential rise overcoming years. With accelerating backlog, richer late-stage mix and proactivecapacity additions, growth visibility remains well supported through 2H26 andbeyond.   Maintain BUY. To factor in the strong momentum of small molecule D&M andTIDES business as well as continuous recovery of early-stage business, weraise our earnings forecasts, expecting revenue to grow by 31.4%/ 18.3%/15.1% YoY (for continuing operations: 37.5%/ 18.3%/ 15.1% YoY) and adj.net profit to grow by 59.1%/ 14.9%/ 13.6% YoY in 2026E/ 27E/ 28E,respectively. Hence, we raise our DCF-based TP from RMB143.00 toRMB170.00 (WACC: 9.39%, terminal growth: 2.00%; both unchanged).
      CMB International Capital Corporation Limited
      6页
      2026-08-04
    • 1Q26 results: small molecule D&M fuelling overall growth

      1Q26 results: small molecule D&M fuelling overall growth

      GLP-1
      无锡药明康德新药开发股份有限公司
      COVID-19
        药明康德(603259)   WuXi AppTec released better-than-expected 1Q26 financial results. Revenuegrew by 28.8% YoY to RMB12.4bn with continuing operations revenue increasingby 39.4% YoY, while adj. non-IFRS attributable net profit surged 71.7% YoY toRMB4.6bn. 1Q26 revenue/ adj. net profit represent 24.1%/ 25.6% of our full-yearforecasts, respectively, significantly higher than the historical average of 18-20%.As of 1Q26, backlog for continuing operations grew by 23.6% YoY (+29% YoY ifexcl. FX fluctuations) to RMB59.8bn, with new orders signed in 1Q26 growing byover 25%. Mgmt. maintained full-year guidance, projecting 2026 revenue to reachRMB51.3-53.0bn, with revenue from continuing operations to grow by 18-22%YoY. Adj. net profit margin is expected to remain stable. Mgmt. indicated plans toraise the guidance in due course based on future business developments.   CRDMO model to capture global blockbuster opportunities. Within thismodel, drug discovery and development services continuously funnel projectsto downstream. The Company delivered +420,000 new compounds over thepast 12 months, converted 83 projects from R to D, and added nine new PhIIIand commercial projects in 1Q26. This funnel model, which covers a widerange of therapeutic areas and a large customer base globally, allows theCompany to identify industry trends and build capacity in advance. As aresult, this approach has enabled WuXi AppTec to capitalize on commercialopportunities for multiple global blockbuster products, including oral COVID-19 drugs and peptides/ small-molecule GLP-1 drugs. Benefiting from oralGLP-1 drugs, revenue from small molecule D&M surged by 80.1% YoY in1Q26, creating a new growth engine for the Company. As a natural extensionof CRDMO model, TIDES saw 1Q26 revenue growth impacted by the pacingof product deliveries, resulting in a modest 6.1% YoY increase. However,based on a robust backlog, mgmt. expects full-year revenue for this segmentto grow by ~40%, reflecting mgmt's confidence in the TIDES business.   Continued capacity expansion. Driven by growing global demand, WuXiAppTec plans to bring the construction of new Changzhou site ahead ofschedule, which will house both small molecule and TIDES capacity. Mgmt.targets the total solid-phase synthesis reactor volume to reach 130k liters bythe end of 2026, up from 100k liters at the end of 2025. Despite theuncertainties from the Middle East, the strategic cooperation agreementsigned with the Saudi government last Oct is proceeding as planned, a keycomponent of the Company's long-term strategy to build global capabilitiesand capacity. Mgmt. forecasts 2026 capex to be RMB6.5-7.5bn, representinga YoY increase of 17.3-35.4%. We believe that WuXi AppTec's mature globalCRDMO network and ongoing expansions will further reinforce its leadingposition in the global pharmaceutical outsourcing industry.   Maintain BUY. To factor into the strong momentum of small molecule D&Mbusiness, we lift our earnings forecasts, expecting revenue to grow by 15.2%/16.3%/ 14.8% YoY (for continuing operations: 20.6%/ 16.3%/ 14.8% YoY)and adj. net profit to grow by 26.2%/ 18.0%/ 15.8% YoY in 2026E/ 27E/ 28E,respectively. Hence, we raise our DCF-based TP from RMB133.00 toRMB143.00 (WACC: 9.39%, terminal growth: 2.00%; both unchanged).
      CMB International Capital Corporation Limited
      6页
      2026-04-29
    • Robust overseas momentum and domestic

      Robust overseas momentum and domestic

      南微医学科技股份有限公司
      Conmed Corp
        南微医学(688029)   A solid 2025; 1Q26 revenue slightly ahead of expectations. In 2025, MicroTech reported revenue of RMB3.2bn (+15.5% YoY) and attributable net profit ofRMB570mn (+3.1% YoY). Its 1Q26 revenue grew 22.1% YoY to RMB854mn,slightly beating our expectations and accounted for 24% of our full-year forecast(vs. the historical average of 21%). Attributable net profit declined 9.0% YoY toRMB146mn primarily dragged by FX losses. Given the strong growth ofoverseas business and potential recovery of domestic business, we raise our2026 full-year revenue growth estimates from 11.4% to 15.9%.   Overseas business remained the primary growth engine. In 2025,overseas revenue increased 40.9% YoY to RMB1.9bn. Excluding theRMB267mn contribution from subsidiary CME, organic overseas growthremained solid at ~21%. This strong momentum persisted in 1Q26, withoverseas revenue up 28.2% YoY, lifting its revenue contribution from 60%in 2025 to 61% in 1Q26. We believe the acquisition of CME and CONMED’s(CNMD US, NR) GI endoscopic consumable product lines will significantlyenhance Micro-Tech’s direct sales footprint in US and European markets.We continue to view the direct sales capability as a critical competitive moatfor its rapid overseas growth. Additionally, the January 2026 launch of theThailand manufacturing center should further enhance its global deliveryefficiency and supply chain resilience.   Domestic market showed signs of recovery. While 2025 domesticrevenue declined 9.6% YoY to RMB1.25bn due to the VBPs, 1Q26 domesticrevenue recovered with a 13.6% YoY growth. Notably, domestic sales of GIproducts grew ~25% YoY in 1Q26. Despite the ongoing VBPs inGuangdong and Zhejiang provinces, we believe the marginal policy impactis weakening, driven by the rapid growth of innovative products. In our view,Micro-Tech’s domestic business has shown signs of bottoming out.   Innovative products contributed meaningful incremental growth.Revenue from innovative products (including visualization business) grewover 40% YoY in 2025, accounting for 8% of total revenue. In 1Q26, revenuefrom innovative products increased 65% YoY, expanding their revenueshare to 10.6%. With domestic channel inventory for single-use endoscopeslargely digested and strong global growth, we expect visualization businessto maintain robust momentum in 2026E. Overall, we see the continued rampof the innovation portfolio and overseas expansion as effective offsets todomestic VBP pressure.   Maintain BUY. Given the slight 1Q26 revenue growth beat, we raise our2026E–2028E revenue forecasts. Accordingly, we raise our target price toRMB97.38 based on a 10-year DCF model (WACC: 10.7%, terminal growth:2.0%; both unchanged).
      CMB International Capital Corporation Limited
      6页
      2026-04-28
    • Navigating near-term pressures; expect growth to resume in 2026E

      Navigating near-term pressures; expect growth to resume in 2026E

      深圳迈瑞生物医疗电子股份有限公司
      武汉迈瑞科技有限公司
        迈瑞医疗(300760)   Mindray reported revenue of RMB33.3bn (-9.4% YoY) and attributable net profitof RMB8.1bn (-30.3% YoY) in 2025, 2%/ 12% below our estimates, respectively.The weak domestic business was the primary drag, which was attributable todomestic hospital budget constraints and policy pressures in IVD market.Attributable NPM dropped 7.3ppts YoY in 2025, reflecting domestic price cuts,FX losses, and higher overseas selling expenses. Looking ahead, we expect thedomestic business to bottom out in 2026E, while overseas business remains thekey growth driver. With resilient overseas growth, ongoing IVD share gains, andrapid scaling in emerging businesses, we believe Mindray remains wellpositioned for a long-term recovery. However, margin pressure may persistgiven the implementation of chemiluminescence VBP, FX volatility, and a highereffective tax rate.   Overseas business remains resilient, led by Europe. Overseas revenuegrew 7.4% YoY to RMB17.7bn in 2025, accounting for 53% of total revenue.The overseas growth moderated amid inflation, geopolitical disruptions, anddelayed procurement in developing markets. Even so, Europe delivered astrong 17% YoY increase, supported by Mindray’s growing localization andintelligent solutions, which effectively addressed local labor shortages. Weexpect overseas growth to reaccelerate in 2026E as Mindray deepens localoperations and expands into higher-end accounts.   Expect domestic business to bottom out in 2026E. Domestic revenuedeclined 23.0% YoY to RMB15.6bn in 2025, pressured by reduced hospitalprocurement budget and ongoing policy headwinds including DRG/DIP andVBP. Despite these near-term headwinds, we remain positive on Mindray’sdomestic IVD business, where Mindray continues to execute on its “DoubleBig” strategy focused on top-tier hospitals and large-volume customers. In2025, revenue from these key customers grew nearly 20% YoY andrepresented 45% of domestic IVD reagent revenue. We project a return topositive growth in domestic business in 2026E, underpinned by ongoing IVDshare gains and a growing revenue mix from emerging businesses.   Emerging businesses are becoming the next growth driver. Emergingbusiness revenue rose 38.9% YoY to RMB5.4bn, accounting for 16% of totalrevenue, making it Mindray’s fastest-growing segment. This segmentincludes minimally invasive interventions (APT Medical), minimally invasivesurgery and animal care. We think the long-term growth is driven by an agingpopulation, adoption of minimally invasive procedures, and growth in pethealthcare. With enriching product pipelines, we believe these businessescan become a meaningful long-term growth driver.   Maintain BUY. Given the lower-than-expected earnings in 2025, we lowerour 2026E revenue/earnings forecast by 6%/23%, respectively, and reviseour target price to RMB204.54, based on a 9-year DCF (WACC: 9.1%,terminal growth: 3.0%, unchanged).
      CMB International Capital Corporation Limited
      6页
      2026-04-02
    • Overseas strength offsets domestic softness

      Overseas strength offsets domestic softness

      深圳迈瑞生物医疗电子股份有限公司
      武汉迈瑞科技有限公司
        迈瑞医疗(300760)   Mindray reported9M25revenue of RMB25.8bn,down by12.4%YoY.Revenuein3Q25reached RMB9.1bn,up by1.5%YoY,indicating a turnaround driven byaccelerating overseas growth and mild domestic recovery.Overseas revenuerose12%YoY to RMB4.6bn in3Q,with revenue from Europe up by29%.Domestic revenue fell by7%YoY in3Q,while the decline narrowed notablycompared to1H25.We anticipate a further acceleration in growth in4Q25,supported by the ongoing recovery in domestic equipment procurement,solidoverseas momentum,and a favorable base effect.   IVD:solid overseas growth;accelerated TLA installation.In3Q25,IVDsegment reported revenue of RMB3.6bn,down by3%YoY,with overseasIVD revenue achieving double-digit growth.TLA(Total LaboratoryAutomation)installations continued to accelerate.In9M25,180units of theMT8000TLA were installed in China,and full-year domestic deploymentsare expected to exceed200units,per company guidance.OverseasMT8000sales surpassed20units,which has met the full-year target.Weexpect TLA systems to enhance Mindray’s penetration into leading domestichospitals and medium-to-high throughput labs overseas,supporting long-term IVD growth.   MIS:continued high-end upgrade.MIS segment reported revenue ofRMB1.7bn in3Q25,roughly flat YoY.Overseas MIS grew at a high single-digit rate,while sales of ultra-high-end products doubled in9M25.We seesignificant potential for market share gains in high-end and ultra-high-endultrasound,both domestically and internationally,driven by the risingadoption of Resona A20/Nuewa A20and upcoming launches in thepremium portfolio.   Profitability under headwinds.Mindray’s attributable net margin declinedto29.3%in9M25,down7ppts YoY,mainly due to domestic pricing pressurefrom volume-based procurement(VBP)and intensified competition.Increased investment in overseas expansion also led to an increase inselling expenses.Going forward,we expect greater in-house reagent rawmaterial production,a higher mix of high-end products,and growingoverseas contribution to partly offset domestic margin pressure and supportsound long-term profitability.   Maintain BUY.Given continued demand and pricing pressure in the IVDsegment,we revise down our2025E-27E forecasts and lower our targetprice to RMB249.21based on a9-year DCF model(WACC:9.1%,terminalgrowth:3.0%).
      CMB International Capital Corporation Limited
      6页
      2025-10-31
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