Overseas growth remained solid; domestic recovery should broaden in 2027E

　　迈瑞医疗(300760) 　　Mindray reported3Q26revenue of RMB9,350mn(+2.9%YoY;+6.0%currency-neutral),taking9M26revenue to RMB27.1bn(+4.9%YoY;+7.4%currency-neutral).Net profit declined2.5%YoY to RMB2,517mn in3Q26and3.2%YoY toRMB7,564mn in9M26,mainly reflecting FX losses and higher component costs.Excluding FX,net profit grew1.8%YoY in3Q26and6.3%YoY in9M26.Withdomestic destocking being largely completed by year-end and overseas momentummaintained,we expect Mindray’s growth to accelerate into2027E. 　　Overseas business remained the main growth driver.Overseas revenuereached RMB14.4bn in9M26,up11.0%YoY,or16.0%YoY in USD terms,accounting for53%of total revenue.Revenue from Europe increased~20%YoYthanks to the rapid growth in the UK,France,Germany and Italy.Latin Americaand APAC revenue grew~18%and~14%YoY,respectively,where India,Mexico and Brazil etc.all reported robust growth.In addition,Mindray expandedcooperation with a major US IDN from monitoring and anaesthesia to ultrasoundrecently,which should provide incremental support to its growth in America from2027E,in our view.Overseas IVD remained strong,which increased~20%YoYin9M26,with immunoassay up more than30%.Mindray received35new TLAorders and completed20TLA installations in9M26,which we expect to drivecontinued rapid growth of overseas IVD business. 　　Domestic business was resilient despite a higher base in3Q25.Domesticrevenue declined~1%YoY to RMB4.5bn in3Q26but rose2.0%QoQ.Withinthis,domestic IVD grew4%QoQ while immunoassay increased7%QoQ.Mindray’s combined share in chemistry,immunoassay and coagulation hasincreased from10%in1H25to15%in3Q26,according to the Company.Domestic TLA new orders and installations were nearly400and300in9M26,respectively,which have surpassed the total in FY25.We think these will supportfuture reagent volume growth.Moreover,domestic emerging business reportedrevenue growth of20%YoY in9M26.As channel destocking is expected tolargely complete by year-end,we expect domestic growth to improve in2027E,led by IVD share gains and continued expansion in emerging businesses. 　　Emerging businesses are becoming a more meaningful growth contributor.Revenue from emerging businesses grew20.5%YoY to RMB4.7bn in9M26,andreached17.5%of total sales.Minimally invasive surgery and intervention bothgrew more than20%YoY,with surgical high-value consumables more thandoubled and PFA procedures exceeded10,000in9M26.We see emergingbusinesses as an increasingly important driver of Mindray’s medium-termearnings growth. 　　Maintain BUY.We roll forward our DCF model to2027E-34E from2026E-34E,as valuation is increasingly anchored on2027E.We cut our earnings forecastsmodestly to reflect raw-material cost pressure.Therefore,we derive our TP ofRMB214.84based on an8-year DCF model.Key risks include FX volatility,IVDpricing pressure,weaker hospital procurement and slower overseas expansion.