泰格医药(300347) 　　Tigermed reported 3Q23 revenue of RMB1,940mn, up 7.1% YoY (vs +3.3%YoY in 1H23), and attributable recurring net income of RMB405mn, down 3.8%YoY (vs +2.9% YoY in 1H23). 3Q23 revenue accounted for 24.9% of our 2023full-year estimate, in line with its historical average, while attributable recurringnet income represented 22.7% of our forecast, which fell short of its historicalaverage of ~27%. If excluding COVID vaccine revenue, 3Q23 revenue wouldgrow by ~18% YoY (vs ~27% YoY in 1H23). Management indicated a policyheadwind impacting patient enrolments in 3Q23, which has already largelyresumed normal by late Sep. Gross profit margin (GPM) in 3Q23 continuouslyrose to 41.2%, improving by 1.0ppt QoQ and 0.2ppt YoY. According tomanagement, GPM would be ~41.7% if excluding COVID vaccine revenue,which declined 1.3ppt YoY. The adj. gross margin dilution was mainly due tothe impact from policy headwinds, margin pressure from lab business and thestrong recovery of low-margin SMO services. Additionally, new orders(excluding pass-through fees) signed in the quarter achieved positive growthamid the harsh business environment. Tigermed’s operating cash flows in 9M23was RMB673mn, down 18.5% YoY. 　　Globalization to serve as a long-term driver. Tigermed acquired aCroatia-based clinical CRO, Marti Farm, in Jan 2023, further enhancing itsservice capability in Europe. Althrough the Company adjusted its personnelin Europe to reflect the post-COVID demand changes, Europe still plays acritical role for patient enrolments in MRCTs as well as for biosimilarprojects. In the US, Tigermed doubled its local clinical operation team tomore than 110 staff in 1H23. In the Europe and US market, Tigermedstrategically aims to collaborate with small- to mid- sized companies withintention of incorporating China in their MRCTs (especially CGT projects)and Chinese clients going to overseas markets. Management expected thegrowth of the US and EU business to outpace that of Tigermed as a whole.Besides, Southeast Asia and Latin America market with large populationbases continue to remain as strategic end markets for Chinese pharmacompanies in the long term, creating extra business opportunities forTigermed. 　　ADC and obesity to trigger additional clinical demands. Although theglobal biotech market has saw an initial inflection point in terms of financing,management of Tigermed pointed out the continuously decreasing risktolerance of clients, leading to the longer waiting time from request-forproposals (RFPs) to contract signing. However, management indicated thatthe successful POC and commercialization of certain products ininternational market, such as ADC and obesity drugs, will bring additionalclinical demands to clinical CROs. Specifically, Tigermed has alreadyobserved a growing interest from client on obesity drugs. 　　Maintain BUY. We revised our TP from RMB94.41 to RMB80.31, based ona 10-year DCF model (WACC: 11.5%, terminal growth: 3.0%), to factor inslower projection of recurring net income growth. We forecast Tigermed’srevenue to grow 7.3%/ 24.9%/ 26.0% YoY and attributable recurring netincome to grow 9.2%/ 23.8%/ 27.6% YoY in FY23E/ 24E/ 25E, respectively.

# 中心思想 本报告对药明康德(603259 CH)进行了更新，核心观点如下： * **盈利能力显著提升：** 药明康德2023年上半年收入同比增长6.3%，归属于母公司的经常性净利润同比增长23.7%，盈利能力显著提升，主要得益于有利的汇率和运营效率的持续提高。 * **非新冠项目驱动可持续增长：** 在强大的D&M服务增长的支持下，2023年上半年，不包括商业新冠项目，药明化学板块的非新冠收入增长逐季加速，第二季度同比增长51.6%，而第一季度同比增长21.8%。 * **维持买入评级：** 基于10年期DCF模型，将目标价从人民币110.69元修正为人民币116.73元，WACC为11.57%，终端增长率为3.0%。 # 主要内容 ## 1H23 业绩回顾：利润率显著提升 药明康德公布2023年上半年收入为人民币188.71亿元，同比增长6.3%；归属于母公司的经常性净利润为人民币47.61亿元，同比增长23.7%；归属于母公司的调整后非IFRS净利润为人民币50.95亿元，同比增长18.5%。非IFRS中国医疗保健业务的毛利率提高了3.4个百分点，达到41.6%，而非IFRS净利润率提高了2.8个百分点，达到27.0%，这主要得益于有利的货币汇率和运营效率的不断提高。 ## 非新冠项目稳固推动可持续增长 在D&M服务的强劲增长支持下，2023年上半年，不包括商业新冠项目，药明化学板块的非新冠收入增长逐季加速，第二季度同比增长51.6%，而第一季度同比增长21.8%。管理层预计2023年新冠收入约为人民币30亿元，其中约人民币15亿元已在2023年上半年确认。 ## 受益于新模式服务的强劲需求增长 TIDES（主要是寡核苷酸和多肽）在药明化学板块的收入在2023年上半年同比增长37.9%，2022年同比增长337%。TIDES的积压订单在2023年上半年大幅增长188%，管理层预计2023年TIDES收入将同比增长70%以上。 ## 利润率提高受益于有利的货币汇率和运营效率的提高 管理层表示，2023年上半年毛利率提高3.4个百分点主要归因于有利的货币汇率（2.4个百分点）和运营效率的提高（1.0个百分点）。管理层表示，如果2023年下半年外汇没有重大变化，毛利率可以维持在40%以上。公司还在通过在大数据和自动化服务中优化员工产出。 ## 盈利预测调整 * **收入：** 2023E/24E/25E分别为人民币417.42亿元/537.62亿元/676.53亿元，同比增长6.1%/28.8%/25.8%。 * **调整后净利润：** 2023E/24E/25E分别为人民币105.74亿元/132.02亿元/162.69亿元，同比增长12.5%/24.8%/23.2%。 ## 估值 基于风险调整的DCF估值，目标价为人民币116.73元。 # 总结 本报告强调了药明康德在2023年上半年的优异表现，特别是利润率的显著提升和非新冠项目的强劲增长。公司受益于有利的汇率、运营效率的提高以及新模式服务的强劲需求。维持“买入”评级，目标价为人民币116.73元。

　　泰格医药(300347) 　　Tigermedreported1Q23revenueofRMB1,805mn,down0.7%YoY,andattributablerecurringnetincomeofRMB381mn,up0.7%YoY.1Q23revenue/attributablerecurringnetincomeaccountedfor21.2%/19.2%respectivelyofour2023full-yearestimates,whichwereinlinewithitshistoricalaveragelevel.1Q23revenuewouldgrowby27-28%YoYifexcludingCOVIDrelatedrevenue.Grossprofitmargin(GPM)in1Q23was39.7%,improvingby1.6pptQoQand0.8pptYoY,thankstothedecreasedproportionofrevenuefromCOVID-19relatedprojects(includingpass-throughrevenuetooverseassub-contractors)aswellasbusinessnormalizationinChinasinceFeb2023.Accordingtomanagement,GPMwouldbeabove41%ifexcludingCOVIDpass-throughrevenue.Neworderssignedin1Q23waslargelyflatYoY,whilemanagementexpectsasignificantpickupinnewordersgrowthfrom2Q23giventherecoveryofrequestsforproposalsince1Q23. 　　Operation fully resumed after the COVID pandemic, laying a soundfoundation for full-year growth. Management indicated that COVIDinfection among employees had disrupted business operations in Jan 2023,with China-based laboratory services taking the most hit. According toFrontage (1521 HK), revenue declined by 1.8% YoY while adjusted net profitdropped by 77% YoY in 1Q23. With business operation resumed normal,management expected both revenue and GPM to see sequentialimprovements in 2Q23. 　　Globalization remains a business focus. Tigermed acquired a Croatiabased clinical CRO, Marti Farm, in Jan 2023, further enhancing its servicecapability in Europe. The Company is integrating its BD team in Europe toenhance BD capabilities. In the US, Tigmerd aims to double its local clinicaloperation team to over 100 staff in 2023. The Company’s strategies inEurope and US include collaborating with small- to mid- sized clients withrelatively inadequate access to resource of global clinical CROs andChinese clients going to developed markets. Additionally, Tigermed takes aproactive approach in Southeast Asia and Latin America. Such regions arepotential end markets for Chinese drug developers, which will createadditional demand for Tigermed in overseas market. 　　Operating cash flow to recover. Net operating cash flow substantiallydeclined by 91% YoY to RMB29mn, due to 1) delay in part of cost paymentfrom 4Q22 to 1Q23 due to COVID outbreak; 2) sizable income from COVIDvaccine projects in 1Q22 which caused a high base; and 3) the increasingstaff cost due to the growing employee number. Management guided netoperating cash flow to rebound from 2Q23. 　　Maintain BUY. We revised our TP from RMB134.24 to RMB123.50, basedon a 10-year DCF model (WACC: 10.6%, terminal growth: 3.0%), to factorin slower revenue growth projection. We forecast Tigermed’s revenue togrow 15.4%/ 25.0%/ 24.1% YoY and attributable recurring net income to grow21.8%/ 25.0%/ 25.3% YoY in FY23E/ 24E/ 25E, respectively.

# 中心思想 * **业绩增长与挑战并存：** 药明康德2023年一季度业绩稳健增长，但全球医疗健康融资放缓仍是关键关注因素。 * **新业务增长点：** 新型疗法服务成为新的增长动力，尽管业务调整，WuXi ATU和DDSU也取得了令人鼓舞的进展。 * **维持买入评级：** 考虑到医疗健康融资的不确定性，下调目标价，但维持买入评级，并预测未来几年营收和净利润将保持增长。 # 主要内容 ## 1Q23业绩回顾：稳健的盈利增长 药明康德 (603259 CH) 公布了2023年第一季度的业绩，营收为人民币89.64亿元，同比增长6%。归属于母公司的经常性净利润为人民币18.69亿元，同比增长9%；归属于母公司的调整后非IFRS净利润为人民币23.42亿元，同比增长14%。一季度营收和调整后非IFRS净利润分别占我们全年预测的21%和22%，与历史范围一致。非IFRS毛利率提高了3.2个百分点至41.0%，而非IFRS净利润率提高了1.9个百分点至26.1%，这得益于运营效率和每位员工产出的持续提高。 ## 外部环境分析：全球医疗健康融资放缓的影响 全球医疗健康融资放缓仍然是一个需要关注的关键因素。根据VBDATA的数据，继2022年同比下降43%/54%之后，2023年第一季度全球/中国医疗健康融资同比下降41%/57%。尽管一些中小型制药公司被迫重新评估其研发支出，但我们认为，顶级生物科技公司和大型制药公司的研发需求仍保持在相对健康的水平。 ## 新业务模式：新型疗法服务的增长 WuXi Chemistry部门的新型疗法相关服务收入同比增长44%至人民币5.4亿元，约占该部门收入的9.6%（2022年约为10.4%）（不包括COVID-19商业项目）。此外，WuXi Biology部门的新型疗法收入在2023年第一季度实现了40%的同比增长，占该部门收入的25.3%（2022年为22.5%）。 ## 子公司进展：WuXi ATU和DDSU的业务进展 WuXi ATU的管线包括截至2023年第一季度的8个III期项目，其中两个处于BLA审查阶段，另有两个处于BLA准备阶段。管理层预计，随着BLA的预期批准，商业需求将在2023年下半年上升。随着临港基地的调整，管理层表示WuXi ATU的全年毛利率将在2023年转正。此外，DDSU部门的一家客户在2023年3月获得了一种新的COVID药物的上市批准，这可能会带来额外的特许权使用费收入。 ## 盈利预测与估值调整：下调目标价但维持买入评级 将目标价从人民币121.52元下调至人民币110.69元，基于10年期DCF模型，WACC为11.57%，终端增长率为3.0%，以反映医疗健康融资的不确定性。预测药明康德的收入在2023E/24E/25E将分别同比增长5.8%/28.8%/25.8%，调整后的非IFRS净利润将分别同比增长9.3%/27.4%/24.4%。 # 总结 本报告分析了药明康德2023年第一季度的业绩表现，指出公司在充满挑战的环境中依然保持了健康的增长。报告强调了全球医疗健康融资放缓带来的影响，同时也关注了新型疗法服务等新业务的增长潜力。此外，报告还分析了WuXi ATU和DDSU等子公司的业务进展。最后，报告基于DCF模型，下调了目标价，但维持了买入评级，并对公司未来的营收和净利润增长进行了预测。

# 中心思想 本报告对药明康德(603259 CH)进行了更新，核心观点如下： * **非新冠业务稳健增长：** 药明康德2022年业绩强劲，尽管受到新冠疫情影响，但非新冠项目持续推动公司业务增长，尤其化学CDMO服务表现突出。 * **维持买入评级：** 维持买入评级，目标价为人民币121.52元，基于DCF模型，预测未来三年公司收入和经调整的非IFRS净利润将保持增长。 # 主要内容 ## 2022年业绩回顾与2023年展望 药明康德2022年收入同比增长72%至人民币394亿元， recurring净利润同比增长103%至人民币83亿元， adjusted non-IFRS净利润同比增长83%至人民币94亿元。公司预计2023年收入同比增长5-7%，并重申2021-24年收入复合年增长率超过34%的目标。 ## 各业务板块发展分析 * **WuXi Chemistry：** 剔除商业化阶段的新冠项目，WuXi Chemistry板块在2022年实现了40%的同比增长，主要得益于化学CDMO服务的强劲增长（同比增长173%）。预计2023年，剔除新冠商业化项目，WuXi Chemistry收入将保持36-38%的稳健增长。 * **WuXi Testing、WuXi Biology和WuXi ATU：** 预计2023年，这三个板块的合计收入将同比增长20-23%。 * **DDSU：** 由于主动调整产品线以满足中国客户不断变化的研发需求，预计DDSU的收入将下降超过20%。 ## 新型药物模式的驱动作用 新型药物模式相关服务（主要包括寡核苷酸和多肽）的收入在2022年同比增长158%至人民币20亿元，约占化学CDMO收入的16%（不包括商业化阶段的新冠项目）。WuXi Biology板块内的新型药物模式收入也实现了90%的同比增长，占该板块收入的22.5%（2021年为14.6%）。 ## 全球化战略布局 药明康德2022年资本支出为人民币100亿元，并计划在2023年投资人民币80-90亿元，以进一步加强其全球网络。公司正在美国建设大规模的药品生产设施，并在新加坡建设全套的研发和生产基地，未来10年的总投资额为14亿美元。 ## 盈利预测与估值 * **盈利预测：** 预计药明康德2023E/24E/25E的收入将分别同比增长6.9%/30.9%/26.6%，调整后的非IFRS净利润将分别同比增长13.5%/31.2%/25.8%。 * **估值：** 基于10年期DCF模型，WACC为11.57%，终端增长率为3.0%，得出目标价为人民币121.52元。 # 总结 本报告分析了药明康德2022年的强劲业绩，并展望了公司未来的发展前景。核心结论是： * **增长动力：** 非新冠业务的稳健增长和新型药物模式的快速发展将成为公司未来增长的主要动力。 * **全球化战略：** 公司持续推进全球化战略，进一步巩固其市场地位。 * **投资建议：** 维持买入评级，目标价为人民币121.52元，反映了对公司未来增长潜力的信心。

# 中心思想 * **业绩强劲复苏：** 药明康德在经历了2022年第二季度因中国COVID-19疫情造成的业务中断后，业绩实现了强劲复苏。第三季度收入和经调整的Non-IFRS净利润均符合预期，分别占全年预估的27%和28%。 * **终止H股配售计划提振市场情绪：** 公司决定终止其H股配售计划，预计将提振市场对该股票的情绪。同时，管理层将2022年收入增长指引从68-72%上调至70-72%，并重申了2021-24年超过34%的收入复合年增长率目标。 # 主要内容 ## 3Q22 业绩符合预期 药明康德公布的2022年第三季度收入为人民币106.4亿元，同比增长78%（第一季度和第二季度分别为71%和66%）。归属于公司的经常性净利润为人民币23.8亿元，同比增长143%（第一季度和第二季度分别为106%和65%）。经调整的Non-IFRS净利润为人民币24.7亿元，同比增长82%（第一季度和第二季度分别为118%和49%）。 ## WuXi Chemistry 持续强劲增长 WuXi Chemistry 持续录得强劲增长，这得益于非 COVID 和 COVID CDMO 项目。WuXi Chemistry 收入在 3Q22 同比增长 115%，这主要得益于化学 CDMO 服务 192% 的同比增长。根据我们的估计，公司在 3Q22 从商业阶段的 COVID-19 项目中获得了约人民币 27 亿元的收入（1Q/2Q22 中约为人民币 15 亿元/人民币 27 亿元），约占 WuXi Chemistry 收入的 34%。不包括商业阶段的 COVID-19 项目，WuXi Chemistry 部门的收入在 3Q22 仍然实现了 41% 的同比增长（1Q/2Q22 中为 52%/23% 的同比增长），这表明对非 COVID-19 项目的需求也在不断增长。值得一提的是，来自寡核苷酸和肽项目的 CDMO 收入在 9M22 中增长了 4 倍以上，达到人民币 11 亿元，占化学 CDMO 收入的 13%（不包括商业阶段的 COVID-19 项目）。 ## WuXi Testing 和 WuXi Biology 业务反弹 WuXi Testing 和 WuXi Biology 从 2Q22 COVID-19 疫情的负面影响中反弹。WuXi Testing 的收入在 3Q22 同比增长 28%（1Q/2Q22 为 32%/17% 的同比增长），而 WuXi Biology 的收入在 3Q22 同比增长 37%（1Q/2Q22 为 26%/12% 的同比增长）。 ## 持续的全球化努力 2022 年 8 月，WuXi AppTec 启动了在美国特拉华州的大型药品生产设施的建设。公司还宣布在未来 10 年内投资 14 亿美元在新加坡建设全套研发和生产基地。我们相信其快速增长的全球网络将使公司能够更好地满足不断增长和多样化的客户需求。 ## 维持买入评级 我们将目标价从 185.17 港元调整至 142.20 港元，基于 10 年 DCF 模型（WACC：10.94%，终端增长率：3.0%）。 # 总结 本报告分析了药明康德(603259 CH)在2022年第三季度的业绩表现，指出公司在经历疫情影响后实现了强劲复苏，各项业务均呈现增长态势。报告强调了WuXi Chemistry业务的突出表现，以及公司在全球化布局方面的持续努力。此外，报告还提及了公司终止H股配售计划对市场情绪的积极影响。最后，报告维持对药明康德的“买入”评级，并基于DCF模型给出了新的目标价。

　　泰格医药(300347) 　　3Q22 earnings in line. Tigermed reported 3Q22 revenue of RMB1,812mn, up 35% YoY, attributable net income of RMB413mn, down 22% YoY, and attributable recurring net income of RMB421mn, up 29% YoY. Excluding COVID-19 revenue, we estimate 3Q22 revenue increased by c.42% YoY. The declining attributable net income in 3Q22 was mainly attributable to the fair value losses of RMB11mn, compared with fair value gains of RMB211mn in 3Q21. Gross profit margin (GPM) continuously improved to 40.9% in 3Q22 from 38.8% in 1Q22 and 40.6% in 2Q22, thanks to the shrinking size of the low-margin COVID-19 related revenue (due to pass-through revenue to sub-contractors in overseas markets) as well as the growth of US$-denominated services, such as data management and statistical analysis (DMSA) and laboratory services provided by Frontage, which benefited from US$ appreciation in 3Q22. Non-COVID-19 related new orders increased by c.35%/30% YoY in 9M22/3Q22, respectively, indicating sustainable growth of core business. 　　Consistently focus on high-margin business. Management has prioritized the expansion of high-margin businesses, including clinical trials operation,DMSA and some emerging services while takes a relatively conservative strategy on the SMO business given its low profitability nature. According to management, the Company has further increased its market share in China clinical CRO market for innovative drugs to c.20% in 3Q22, which represented the Company’s strong competency and high customer recognition. DMSA successfully sealed a strategic cooperation deal with a global Top10 pharma in the past quarter. Additionally, Tigermed has adopted a proactive hiring strategy and allocated more human resources to high margin business in 3Q22. We think the strategic change is critical and necessary for Tigermed to further enhance its leading position for its core business given the intensifying competition in China market in recent years. 　　Globalization on track. Tigermed has built local BD teams to explore business opportunities in Europe and the US. The Company has participated in large-scale Phase III multi-regional clinical trials (MRCT) in multiple middle and western European countries. The Company also took full advantages of its experiences in COVID-19 vaccine projects of Chinese clients to expand business opportunities in developing countries, including Indonesia, Brazil, Chile and Pakistan. These developing countries could be potential markets for Chinese drug makers, which will create additional demand for Tigermed’s clinical CRO services. 　　Maintain BUY. We revise our TP from RMB175.15 to RMB147.43, based on a 10-year DCF model (WACC: 10.21%, terminal growth rate: 3.0%). We forecast Tigermed’s revenue to grow 37%/29%/27% YoY and attributablerecurring net income to grow 37%/40%/31% YoY in FY22E/23E/24E.